【作者】 杨志娴；

【导师】 顾军华；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 计算机应用技术， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 区域经济是一个国家经济发展的中心环节，它有助于形成地域的合理分工，进行优势互补，分工协作，进而对国民经济整体发展有巨大的推动力。目前，对于区域经济发展的研究主要是定性地从两个方面着手：在非均衡发展中积极稳妥地促进均衡，效率与公平；因地制宜，制定不同地区的区域经济发展政策。在众多经济学科的理论和应用研究中，博弈论成了一种普通应用的工具，许多经济现象和经济行为都被经济学家理解为某种博弈问题。人工智能算法理论的聚类分析、遗传算法、蚂蚁算法等非线性科学技术在各个行业有着广泛应用，本文首次利用博弈理论和人工智能算法定量地模拟区域经济形成和发展的整个过程，为区域经济领域的研究提供了全新的思路和方法。 首先，通过对区域经济发展的相关理论以及促进区域经济协调发展的重要手段——财政转移支付制度的深入研究，利用博弈理论将区域经济合作的博弈模型和两层主从Stackelberg博弈的分配模型相结合，建立了转移支付促进区域经济合作发展的博弈模型。该模型的设计在较好地体现公平与效率统一的原则，形成有效率的约束机制和激励机制的同时，有利于中央政府对地方行业发展进行政策干预，从而有导向地促进地方经济发展。 其次，探讨区域经济系统与生物进化系统的相同之处，将区域经济中的经济个体看成是生物进化系统的生物体，提出区域经济发展的四点假设：区域经济的发展是系统问题；区域经济的发展遵循利益驱动原则；区域经济的发展符合进化理论；区域经济发展中的实体遵循空间移动原则。根据以上假设将区域经济的发展看作是一种合作演化的过程。 再次，利用聚类分析算法模拟区域经济形成阶段。根据现有国情，主要考虑经济区域与行政区域相协调的原则。 再次，利用遗传算法模拟区域成长阶段。不同经济实体通过继承、协作和发展自身惯例形成竞争局面，最终形成区域经济发展的增长极。 最后，利用蚂蚁算法模拟区域经济成熟阶段。在增长极的基础上形成发展轴，以点带轴，以轴带面，最终形成网状结构。整个区域经济发展的进化模型从定量的角度表示出一个时期内区域经济发展的可控过程，可以为区域经济发展状况的时空比较提供一定依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The regional economy is a key link of national economic development, It contributes to forming the rational division of work of the region, mutually supplement with each other’s advantages, cooperation one another, and then there is enormous motive force to the whole development of national economy. At present, the ones that determined the nature to the research of regional economic development mainly set about from two respects: Active and reliable promoting the Balanced developing, while the non- balanced developping, the efficiency and justice; Suit measures to local conditions, make the regional economic development policies of different areas. Among numerous theory and application studies of economic discipline, game theory has succeeded a kind of ordinary tool that used, A lot of economic phenomena and economic behaviours are all understood as a certain game problems by the economist. There is extensive application in each trade in non-linear science and technology, such as cluster analysis, genetic algorithm, ant algorithm of algorithm of artificial intelligence. This text is utilized game theory and artificial intelligent algorithm to simulate quantitatively the whole course of formation and developping of regional economy for the first time, Offer the brand-new train of thought and method for research of the field of regional economy.First of all, through to the relevant theory of regional economic development and important means that the regional economy of promotion develop in harmony -The further investigation of the financial transfer payment system, Utilize game theory in the combination of game theory model of the regional economic cooperations and Stackelberg’s game theory distribution model of principal and subordinate of two layers at first, Set up a transfer payment game theory model which brought about an advance in regional economic cooperation, The design of this model embodies the fair principle with unified efficiency better, forms the efficient tied mechanism and incentive mechanism. In the same time, help to local trade carry on central government policy intervene, thus bring about an advance in local economy.Secondly, probe into the system of regional economy and something in common systematic of the biological evolution, Regard the economic individual in the regional economy as the organism in systematic biological evolution, put forward four suppositions of regional economicdevelopment: The development of the regional economy is a systematic question; Follows the interests and drives the principle in development of the regional economy; The development of the regional economy accords with the theory of evolving; The entity in regional economic development follows the space and moves the principle. Suppose according to the above that regards the development of the regional economy as a kind of course evolved in cooperation.Thirdly, utilize cluster analysis algorithm to imitate the formation stage of regional economy. According to the national conditions now, consider the harmony principle of the economic area and administrative area mainly.Moreover, utilize the genetic algorithm to imitate the growing stage of regional economy. Through inheritting, cooperating and developing, different economic entities optimize one’s own convention, and form the competition situation. Emerge the growth pole of regional economic development finally.Have set up the emulation model of computer that the regional economy simplified was formed and developed from the quantitative angle, Utilize the emulation algorithm of the computer: Cluster analysis, the hereditary algorithm and ant’s algorithm, differentiate forming stage, growth stage (forms growth pole) and ripe stage of the regional economy of simulation (axles set out exhibition mode gradually). And has analysed about the simulation result. This model is drawn one can express the available course of regional economic development in one period, Can relatively offers certain basis for the space-time of the state of development of r更多还原