【作者】 刘飞；

【导师】 王雪青；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， MBA， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 长输管道工程项目除了具有一般工程项目特点之外，还具有工程投资大、建设周期长、质量要求高、施工作业流动性大、社会依托性差、等特点。这些特点决定了长输管道工程建设所涉及的不确定因素多，面临的风险多，风险导致的损失规模大。目前我国长输管道工程建设采用工程建设监理制，业主委托监理公司对工程项目建设进行管理。监理公司要想成功地管理管道项目，就必须成功地管理管道项目的风险。本文首先对国内外长输管道风险管理的研究现状、发展方向进行了阐述；然后就工程项目的风险识别、工程项目的风险分析、工程项目的风险应对及风险监控等风险管理技术进行了较为深入的研究。本文根据监理公司在管道项目开展监理工作的程序来深入研究了监理方的风险管理，重点研究了管道项目投标阶段和施工阶段监理方的风险管理。在项目投标阶段，根据不同时期掌握的不同信息量，结合监理公司参与投标的程序，运用风险管理技术，多次对不同时期识别的风险事件进行综合分析，对续存的风险进行动态的管理，建立了层次分析结构模型的指标评价体系；在项目施工阶段，利用项目WBS（Work Breakdown Structure工作分解结构）和项目RBS（Risk Breakdown Structure风险分解结构）相结合，监理公司通过控制施工中的相对独立的、易于管理的较小单元的进度、费用、质量和HSE目标，进行监理方的项目风险管理，从而达到实现工程项目的总目标。最后，本文结合典型案例分析，运用定性和定量的分析方法，对长输管道项目监理方的风险管理的主要方法和关键技术进行了详细的论述。该方法对监理公司进行项目风险管理具有一定的应用价值，对项目参建的其他方的风险管理也有参考作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Besides the general project characteristics, the Long-distance pipeline project period, higher qulity requirements, high frequency mobilization and badder working conditions, which will induce more risks in pipeline construction and more loss of the risk. At present, Consultant usually sign contract with the Owner and are responsible to provide projet management service in pipeline construction. In order to make the project execulted smoothly, Consultant have to manage project risk successfully. Firstly, the cuerrent research situation and development trend both in domestic and international pipeline project risk manangement are analyzed in this paper. Then a further study on project risk identification, project risk analysis, and project risk response and project risk control strategy is made. Based on the analysis result and consultant’s work process in pipeline construction, this Paper make a deep study in risk management for Consultant in pipeline project bidding phase and pipeline project construction phase. In the first phase, according to the informations getted in different periods, incorporate the bidding procedure of Consultant Companies,this paper present an AHP evaluation system for risk management ; In the second phase, based on the combination of WBS( the Work Breakdown Structure work resolve construction) and RBS( the Risk Breakdown Structure risk), through controlling the small unit of the easy to management with the targets for progress,cost,quantity and HSE,the Consultant will manage the project construction risks successfully and realize the project objectives.Finally, combined together with cases ananlyses, this paper present the major methods and critical techlogy used in pipeline project risk management for Consultant. Inspired from the cases, the auther thinks this risk management process is of a good applicable value for risk management for those Consultant Companies, and as well as of a reference for risk mangement for other orgernizations.更多还原