厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件与广东省干旱关系探讨

【作者】 袁中友；

【导师】 唐晓春；

【作者基本信息】 华南师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 目前，全球气候正处于不稳定的时期。一方面全球气候持续偏暖，另一方面，自然灾害频繁发生。气候变化问题、全球环境问题、自然灾害及减灾防灾问题等都成为人们关注的热点。其中，全球气候异常问题更是关注的焦点，因为气候变化直接关系着全球环境的变化，关系着自然灾害的发生与发展趋势，关系着全球的社会、经济的可持续发展。近50年来，在对气候变化的研究过程中，人们已逐渐认识到海(洋)——(大)气的相互作用是气候系统中重要的物理过程，对世界气候的变化有着极为显著的影响。因而，关于海——气相互作用的典型事件——厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件的研究就显得尤为重要。厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件的出现会引起全球气候异常，并且通过遥相关作用对世界许多地区的气候产生深刻的影响。 干旱灾害是广东省主要的自然灾害之一。广东省虽地处热带、亚热带，属我国的降水丰沛地区之一，但因受季风气候和地理、地质条件等多种因素的影响，也常受干旱的困扰。目前，广东省230多万ha的耕地中，仍有24％的耕地易受干旱。建国以来，干早灾害的发生越来越频繁，造成的经济损失越来越严重。同时，广东省的降雨、径流不仅年内分配不均，年际变化也不小，而且在地区上分布也有明显差别，因而干旱的发生对各个地区的影响也不相同。厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜这两个对全球气候系统有巨大影响的事件的发生，是否会影响到广东省的气候状况?是否会影响到广东省的干旱?影响的程度怎样?二者的关系怎样?这些已逐渐成为地理、气象、环境、农业等学术界和地方政府十分关心的热点问题。由于前人的相关研究较少，所以有必要加强对这些问题的研究，以比较确切地了解厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件对广东及华南沿海地区的影响。 本文的研究工作是广东省教育厅“千百十工程”优秀人才培养基金项目《厄尔尼诺年广东省自然灾害的特征及对策研究》研究工作的组成部分。在系统查阅并搜集相关文献资料的基础上，对前人研究厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件成因的相关成果进行较为详细的归纳总结。在此基础上，本文对厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件进行了较为系统的分类，并利用统计分析的方法，主要是利用X~2检验和计算条件概率两种方法，对广东省干旱灾害与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件的关系进行了较为系统和深入的研究。首先利用广东省干旱的历史统计资料分析了厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件与广东省干旱灾害的关系，进而又利用1951-2003年的实测的降水资料，分地区和春夏秋冬四个季节，对广东省干旱灾害与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件的关系进行了进一步的研究。研究结果表明： 1．从对厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件以及广东省干旱灾害总体情况的历史统计资料分析来看，近50年来，广东省的干旱灾害与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件的关系并不密切，并且与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件的强度关系也不大。 2．利用实测降水资料研究发现，在厄尔尼诺事件影响年，粤北和粤西地区各个季节的降水基本上以减少为主，有利于广东省干旱的发生，而粤东和珠江三角洲地区的各个季节的降水和常年相似，影响较小；在拉尼娜事件影响年，粤西、粤北和粤东地区各个季节的降水以偏少为主，有利于广东省干旱的发生，而珠江三角洲地区各个季节的降水变化不大。 3．从研究来分析，厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件对广东省干旱的直接影响较小。但是，厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件作为一个大的海——气影响系统，其对广东省应该有影响，既然在事件发生的当年影响较小，那么是不是会有滞后的影响?滞后的时间段是多长?影响程度有多深?本文认为这些问题值得今后进一步的深入研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Now, climate of the whole world is being unstable. On one hand, it is being warmer constantly; on the other hand, there are nature disasters frequently. The problems of climate changing, environment of world, nature disasters, disasters protecting and reducing and so on have become the focus of people, which the problem of climate unusualness is being more followed with, because it concerns with the environment changing of world directly, and it concerns with the occurrence and development of nature disasters, and it still concerns with the continuing development of society and economic of whole world. In recent 50 years, people have gradually realized in the study of climate changing that the interaction of ocean-atmosphere is an important physical process in climate system, and it has notable effect on climate changing. So that, the study of El Nino and La Nina events, which are typical because of the interaction of ocean-atmosphere becomes more important. The occurrence of El Nino and La Nina events can cause climate unusualness, and they can also take deep effect on climate of many areas in the world through distant interaction.Drought is one of the main nature disasters in Guangdong. Though the precipitation is plentiful when contrasts with other areas in china because of being in the tropics and subtropics, it is still always disturbed by drought. That is the cause of monsoon climate, geography, geology and other conditions. Now, in more than 2,300,000 ha cultivated lands, there are 24% of them easy to be affected by drought. Since our country established, drought has been occurred more and more frequently, and the economic lost because of it also more and more serious. At the same time, the precipitation and runoff are not only distributed not meanly and changed a lot yearly, but also have evident difference in area distribution, so the effect of drought on every area is not the same.Whether El Nino and La Nina events, which of big events to world climate system can affect climate of Guangdong? Whether it can affect the drought of Guangdong? How about its extent? And what about their relation? These have become hot spots to geography, atmosphere environment, agriculture and other sciences and local government. Because there was few related study before, we need to enhance the study to these problems, in order to understand the effect of El Nino and La Nina events on Guangdong and coastlands of South China accurately.This study is a part of "The research on characters of nature disasters in El Nino years and the strategy to it", which is the foundation of "Thousand, hundred and ten project" of Guangdong education department. On the base of collecting related materials and documents, we concluded the forefather’ results of relation of cause between El Nino and La-Nina. Then, we classified El Nino and La-Nino systematically,and wo used statistic analysis, especially X test and condition probability to study the relation between drought in Guangdong and El Nino and La-Nina events systematically and deeply. We first analyzed their relation using historic statistic materials, then continually analyzed using precipitation materials between 1951-2003, which departed by areas and seasons. The results indicated that:1. From the analysis to the historic statistic materials of events and drought condition, the relation of drought in Guangdong with El Nino and La Nina is not close, and so it is with the intensity of El Nino and La Nina.2. Through the research of precipitation materials, in years affected by El Nino, precipitation in west and north of Guangdong has been reduced on the whole which have been good to occurrence of drought, but the precipitation of every season in east of Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta was close to other years, which were few affected. In years affected by La-Nina, precipitation in west, east and north of Guangdong has been reduced on the whole which have been good to occurrence of drought, but the precipitation of very season in the Pearl River Delta had few更多还原