【作者】 裘喜芸；

【导师】 李慧民；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 结构工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 本文介绍了质量成本的概念、构成及国内外研究现状，并根据施工企业的特点，分析了建筑施工企业质量成本组成，提出了质量成本管理体系，针对质量成本管理体系六环节之一的质量成本预测作了进一步的探讨。本文运用线性回归模型、灰色系统模型及组合预测模型对工程项目质量成本进行预测，分析了各种方法的优劣，并就灰色GM(1,1)预测模型存在的一些问题，对GM(1,1)预测模型建模方法作了一定的改进，在一定程度上提高了预测精度。同时简要介绍了质量成本管理体系其它五个环节及考虑预测值偏差的管理方案决策方法。最后，借用某电装公司工程实际数据，对本文介绍的几种预测模型进行了计算说明与结果分析。 本文所做的主要工作有： 1．阐述质量成本的概念及国内外研究成果，针对建筑施工企业的具体情况加以分析，制定相应的控制体系。 2．建立质量成本管理系统，对质量成本管理六个环节简要介绍，分析各环节之间相互关系及作用。 3．进行质量成本预测方法研究，建立预测模型，做工程实例的对比预测，分析各方法的优劣及适用情况。 4．探讨质量成本管理方案决策的方法及应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper introduces the conception and consistence of quality cost, analyses the quality cost constituents of the construction business according to the characteristics of construction enterprises, and puts forward the management system of quality cost. The paper does further study on prediction, one step in the quality cost management system. The paper makes use of linear regressive model, grey prediction model and combined forecasting methods to predict the quality cost of engineering project, analyses the superiority and inferiority of every method. Due to the theoretical defect of grey prediction formula, the paper modifies the previous formula, proposes new formula, and improves the prediction accuracy at a certain degree .In addition, the paper introduces the other five steps in the quality cost management system and management scheme decision-making method that considers value deviation. In the end, the paper uses practical data of some company to analyze the several methods introduced before.The main work of the paper is:1.to illustrate the conception of quality cost and research achievement both abroad and at home, to draw up control system according to the particular condition of the construction enterprise.2.to establish quality cost management system, to introduce the six steps of quality cost management briefly, and to analyze the correlation and interaction of every step.3.to study the prediction methods of quality cost, to establish prediction model, to analyze the superiority, inferiority, and adaptability of every method.4.to discuss the methods of and application to the quality cost management scheme decision.更多还原