【作者】 董继红；

【导师】 杨振宏；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 安全技术与工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 “安全第一，预防为主”是我国安全生产工作的方针，重大危险源辨识和评价技术是预防重大工业事故发生的重要手段，也是重大危险源控制和管理的前提。重大危险源辨识标准是进行重大危险源辨识的根据，适用而科学的评价方法可以使评价结果客观、实际。 本文研究目的如下： (1)对重大危险源辨识技术研究，试探找出临界量计算方法。 (2)对重大危险源评价技术研究，提出新的评价方法并建立其数学模型。 本文研究内容与结论如下： 首先，根据国家GB18218-2000《重大危险源辨识》标准，在危险源、重大危险源定义和分类的基础上，对危险物质临界量判定标准作了试探性的研究。从物质的固有能量和诱发能量两方面考虑，提出了当量法和毒性分级法确定危险物质的临界量的方法。 其次，针对重大危险源原有的二维评价方法所存在的局限性，建立了以可能性、严重性、安全管理水平为三维矢量的评价方法，并对这三个矢量进行了定量计算： 可能性：运用马尔可夫过程计算了重大危险源发生事故的概率； 严重性：运用灰色系统理论，根据已有的同类事故经济损失的统计资料，建立自适应性GM(1，1)模型及残差修正的模型，预测重大危险源发生事故的经济损失； 安全管理水平：运用模糊数学理论和灰色系统理论，建立了重大危险源安全管理水平动态综合分析法。 最后，将二维评价方法、三维评价方法应用于实例，并进行了比较，结果表明：用三维评价方法与二维评价方法评价出危险度等级基本吻合，但三维评价方法明显优于二维评价方法，其危险度分值的变化能够反映安全管理水平对系统整体危险性的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 The guiding of state -safety production is that safety is first and precaution is critical, major hazard identification and assessment are the important methods for preventing the seriously industrial accidents, which is also the premise to control and manage major hazard. The standard of major hazard identification is the foundation to implement the major hazard identification, adaptable and scientific assessment method is the way to the assessment result objective and practical.The aims studied in this paper are as follows:(1) Try to obtain the quantities on critical value through the study on the major hazard identification technology.(2) The new assessment method is put forward and then its math model is established through the study on the major hazard assessment technology.The contents and results studied in this paper are as follows:This paper, first based on the classification of hazard and major hazard, makes a heuristical study on assessment standard of critical value in hazard substance according to state standard (GB18218-2000)o The original energy and educed energy in the material are considered, and equivalent method and toxicity level method are put forward to make the method of critical value in hazard substance sure.Secondly, after analyzing the limitation of 2-demension assessment method, establishes 3-demension assessment method (probability ,severity and safety management), and calculates these demensions quantitatively.- Probability: Studies on the emerged accident probability of major hazard carrying the Markow process; Severity: By applying the grey system theory , on the base of the same kinds of accident-economy cost, establishes self-adapting GM (1,1) forecasting model and the model with the residual error being amended in a bid to calculate accident-economy cost;Safety management: Establishes the dynamic comprehensive analytical method on major hazard and safety management of the major hazard by applying the grey system theory and fuzzy math theory.Lastly, 3-demension assessment method is used, compared with the assessment results of method 2-demension one, results are as given: The risk degree major hazard is unchanged basically by using 2-demension or 3-demension assessment method .The change on risk degree shows the effect of safety management level to the whole fatalness.更多还原