我国上市公司财务预警监测系统问题研究

【作者】 陈丽娜；

【导师】 宋浩；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 会计学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 1997年东南亚地区爆发了全地域性的金融危机，并进一步发展成为50年来最严重的国际经济危机。近年来，世界范围内每年的企业破产案件远高于新设企业数,众多大型集团公司陷入困境;“安然”的倒塌更为上市公司财务状况蒙上阴影。在震惊之余，人们开始反思、探讨造成危机的根源，研究发现其中一个重要的原因就在于缺乏有效的财务监测和预警机制。加入WTO后，随着全球经济一体化步伐的逐步临近，我国上市公司在迎接发展机遇的同时，也将面临着更为激烈的市场竞争,如何能在激烈的市场竞争中保持不败,是每个公司存在和发展的前提。虽然很多公司在发生危机时采取了很多补救措施,例如进行债务重组、资产重组、拍卖。但是,不论何种形式的补救措施都会使公司的股东或债权人遭受重大损失。因此,如果能在公司财务状况刚刚出现恶化征兆之时就能发现并采取有效的措施,就可以使很多公司避免遭受更大的损失而陷入困境。公司财务预警系统就是要建立一种机制,使公司的投资者和管理者提前发现公司财务恶化的信号,从而采取相应的措施,化险为夷，度过难关。因此，对我国上市公司财务预警监测系统问题进行研究是十分紧迫和有必要的。本文主要采用实证分析和规范分析相结合、定性分析和定量分析相结合的研究方法，对我国上市公司财务预警监测问题进行研究，并尝试构建符合我国上市公司实际情况的财务预警监测系统。全文共分为四章，各章的主要内容如下：第1章主要是介绍上市公司财务预警系统的基本理论，为我国上市公司财务预警监测系统的构建做相关的理论背景铺垫。第1节对财务预警系统概念进行了界定，并分析了财务预警系统所具备的特性和功能，认为财务预警的实质是，通过财务预警系统多种功能的多重作用，使企业具备保证财务活动安全、可控运转的自组织能力和预控能力。第2节从理论和实践两方面分别探讨了上市公司构建财务预警<WP=4>系统的必要性和可行性，为我国上市公司财务预警监测系统的构建提供支撑。第3节对上市公司财务预警系统的工作流程和构成进行了阐述，认为财务预警系统应由财务预警信息系统、财务预警监测系统和财务预警预控对策系统等三个子系统构成。通过分析这三个子系统相互之间的关系，笔者认为财务预警监测系统在财务预警系统处于核心地位，所以，在本文中，将对财务预警监测系统问题进行深入研究，尝试构建适合我国上市公司的财务预警监测系统。第2章对国内外财务预警监测研究成果进行综述。笔者根据研究时所采用的分析方法将国内外的研究成果，分成定性研究成果和定量研究成果两大部分分别进行阐述。第1节主要介绍了标准化调查法、四阶段症状分析法、“三个月资金周转表”分析法、资金流程图分析法和仁翰·阿吉蒂的“Ａ记分”法等五种定性分析方法。第2节主要介绍了单变量模型、多元判定模型、多元线性概率模型、多元逻辑回归模型、概率比回归模型和非统计定量模型等六种模型。第3章是文章的重点，在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上，笔者尝试构建我国上市公司财务预警监测系统。构建思路为：首先，从机制上进行系统设计，将财务预警监测系统分成财务预警监测执行系统和财务预警监测分析系统两大子系统，然后，根据系统分析内容是否为财务预警非量化因素和财务预警量化因素，将财务预警监测分析系统又分成了财务预警基本监测分析系统和财务预警指标监测分析系统。其中，财务预警基本监测分析系统主要通过分析财务预警非量化因素来进行预警监测。财务预警指标监测分析系统则主要通过分析财务预警量化因素进行预警监测。第1节 财务预警监测执行系统的构建，主要包括财务预警监测组织机构的设置和财务预警监测工作的实施，这两方面的内容。第2节 财务预警监测分析系统的构建，主要包括财务预警基本监测分析系统的构建和财务预警指标监测分析系统的构建。 <WP=5>第一，财务预警基本监测分析系统的构建。首先，借鉴前人研究成果，总结出具有代表性和相关性的一些经济指标，构建财务预警基本监测指标体系，这些指标主要反映财务运行环境、财务运营情况、财务组织机制和财务行为人等方面的内容。其次，采用因素预警准则设置形式，即财务基本监测系统以风险因素是否出现或出现的概率作为报警准则。最后，选择定性分析方法作为财务预警基本监测的主要分析方法，并以仁翰·阿吉蒂的“Ａ记分”法为例，说明财务预警基本监测分析系统的运行过程。第二，财务预警指标监测分析系统的构建。财务预警指标监测分析系统的工作原理是将被监测公司的财务比率代入财务预警监测模型中，求出一个函数值，并依据临界值，判断是否需要报警以及报警的警度。所以，在本文中，笔者运用了实证研究方法和定量分析方法尝试构建适合我国上市公司的财务预警监测模型。总的构建思路是：首先，根据一定的标准选取样本；其次，根据一定的原则选择初始财务指标，收集数据，运用统计方法判断样本数据的有效性和样本的分布特性，在此基础上对财务比率均值差异进行检验，判定以财务比率构建模型的可行性；其三，根据财务比率均值检验结果，确定财务指标监测模型的构建方法，并通过因子分析法，建立财务预警监测指标体?更多还原

【Abstract】 In 1997 the regional financial crisis broke out in the area of Southeast Asia, and developed into the most serious international economic crisis over the past 50 years. In recent years, the amount of bankruptcy case is much higher than that of the new established enterprise and a lot of conglomerates fall into crisis in the whole world. The bankruptcy of ENRON made the financial situation of listed company more serious. After being shocked, people begin to probe into the origin of the crisis. The one important reason is that the enterprise lacks effective financial monitoring and early-warning mechanism. After China entered into WTO, the listed companies are now facing both opportunity and challenge. Therefore, it’s urgent for companies to be safe in the fierce market competition. The financial early- warning system is the mechanism that makes investors and administrators of companies discover the signal of financial failure in advance. So, it is very urgent and necessary to research on the monitoring system of financial early-warning of listed companies of our country.The thesis can be divided into four chapters: Chapter 1 introduces the basic theories of the financial early-warning system of listed company. Section 1 defines the concept of the financial early-warning system of listed companies and thinks that the essence of the financial early-warning system is a kind of guarantee mechanism to keep financing activities operating safely. Section 2 discusses the necessity and feasibility of the construction of the financial early-warning system of listed company from theoretical and practical angle. It aims to support the construction of the monitoring system of financial early-warning. Section 3 demonstrates the work process of financial early-warning system and explains the components of it. By analyzing the relationship <WP=8>of the components, the author thinks that the monitoring system of financial early-warning is a key part. So this thesis will carry on further investigation on this system and try to construct the financial early-warning monitoring system that suits the listed companies of our country.Chapter 2 takes an overview of the relevant researches that have been made in our country and western countries.Section 1 introduces the qualitative financial early-warning techniques. The qualitative methods of financial early-warning include the standardized investigation method, four periods of symptoms, three months fund turnover form , the fund-flow chart analysis, A billiard maker method and etc. Section 2 introduces the quantitative financial early-warning techniques. The quantitative methods of financial early-warning include the univariate model and the multivariate model. The multivariate model additionally can be classified into five subsidiary model such as MDA, Logistic regression model, Probit regression model, ANN and etc. Chapter 3 is the most important part of this thesis, in which the author tries to establish our own monitoring system of financial early-warning. The author divides this system into two sub-systems composed of the monitoring executive system of financial early-warning and the monitoring analysis system of financial early-warning. And the monitoring analysis system of financial early-warning can also be divided into two systems composed of the fundamental monitoring analysis system of financial early-warning and the financial index monitoring analysis system.Section 1 discusses the construction of the monitoring executive system of financial early-warning，which includes establishment of the organization of the monitoring system of financial early-warning and the implementation of the monitoring work of financial early-warning Section 2 discusses the analysis system of financial early-warning, <WP=9>which departed into the construction of the fundamental monitoring analysis system of financial early-warning and the construction of financial index monitoring analysis system of financial early-warning.Firstly the author discusses the construction of更多还原