新兴市场国家（地区）汇率制度选择与演变

【作者】 邹芳莉；

【导师】 邹宏元；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 东南亚危机期间，虽然中国也和其他东南亚新兴市场国家或地区（以下简称新兴国家）一样实行的钉住美元汇率制度，但因中国资本项目实行较严格的管理而幸免于危机。近年来大量的国际收支顺差，外汇储备的猛增以及2003年以来西方大国要求人民币升值的呼声，使中国人民币汇率制度问题突显出来。对汇率制度而不是简单地对汇率水平作出调整已显得非常迫切。中国作为新兴国家，正日渐融入国际金融市场，但其金融开放程度低于其他新兴国家。新兴国家资本项目开放过程中的汇率制度演变对中国有特别的借鉴意义。新兴国家汇率制度安排之所以重要，首先是由于从理论研究上讲，因为新兴国家正处在融入全球资本市场的过程中，其汇率制度的演变实践可以验证两极论的预测；其次，研究新兴国家的汇率制度有极大的现实意义：多数发达国家的汇率制度要么实行自由浮动要么加入货币同盟；而其他不发达的发展中国家，受制于经济金融发展水平，其汇率制度并没有太多选择空间，只有新兴国家需要深思其汇率制度的最优解。研究新兴国家的汇率制度关键涉及到下列问题：第一，世界范围内的汇率演变具有什么样的趋势？新兴国家汇率制度安排总体上具有什么特点？形成这种特点的原因是什么？第二，新兴国家汇率制度安排有哪些成功的经验和失败的教训？新兴国家的汇率制度安排应着重考虑哪些因素？第三，其他新兴国家的汇率制度变迁实践对中国有何借鉴意义？中国现行的汇率制度安排存在哪些缺陷？中国的汇率制度应如何随经济环境变化重构？本论文研究的基本思路是：首先，通过了解世界范围内的汇率制度安排现状及现有的汇率制度理论，得出汇率制度选择的一般结论；其次，结合汇率制度选择理论，重点研究新兴国家汇率制度安排和演进的特点，并通过典型案例，了解这些国家在汇率制度安排<WP=4>上成功的经验和失败的教训，为中国提供借鉴意义；最后，从“三元悖论”理论视角出发，结合资本项目开放和货币政策规则转变，说明人民币汇率制度应随着经济环境的变化进行动态变迁。按照上述的研究思路，全文分为四章：第一章对汇率制度的分类以及世界范围内汇率制度的分布进行了简要概述。首先对汇率制度进行了界定。汇率制度是指一国货币当局对本国汇率的定值基础、变动方法及管理规则所作的一系列安排或规定。然后对法定分类标准和事实分类标准进行了比较和评述。并用表格概括了IMF1999年分类法下8类汇率制度的含义和优缺点，为研究汇率制度选择罗列了被选对象。最后使用IMF的最新资料说明了汇率制度在全球的分布并不均衡。汇率分布集中在四大类:放弃独立法定货币、固定钉住制、管理浮动制、独立浮动制。第二章按照历史沿革回顾了汇率制度选择的一般理论，为新兴国家和中国汇率制度选择分析提供了理论基础。最优货币区理论代表了传统的汇率制度选择，为如何选择汇率制度提供了许多可操作的标准；Mundell-Fleming模型及其推论不可能三角则为本文的理论基础，但本文认为该理论需要扩展以解释中间汇率制与货币政策独立性的组合；BBC规则(一篮子爬行目标区汇率制度)、中间空洞论与反中间空洞论、原罪论和害怕浮动论是汇率制度理论的新发展，对新兴国家有较强解释力。最后，本论文认为汇率制度的选择不仅仅是一个静态问题，更重要的是一个动态演变的过程。同时，像其他经济政策一样，汇率制度变迁与选择可能反映着政策决策者和公众的偏好，而不是仅仅内生于经济环境。从长期来看，汇率制度的选择不是一劳永逸的，没有单一的汇率制度适合于同一时期所有国家或同一国家所有时期。第三章研究了新兴国家汇率制度安排的特点和理论解释，通过国别研究得出了经验性结论。 <WP=5>首先界定了新兴市场国家的内涵和外延。根据IMF的定义，新兴市场是指尚未完善但已向外国投资者大范围开放的发展中国家的金融市场。本文将新兴国家定义为EMBI+和EMF成分国的并集，共33个国家（地区）。其次在分析新兴国家影响汇率选择的经济制度特点的基础上，概括了新兴国家汇率制度安排的特点：新兴国家一方面偏好相对固定汇率制度，害怕浮动；另一方面新兴国家又难于维持相对固定的汇率制度，而呈现出两极解的趋势。接着，对新兴国家汇率制度选择的两难困境用原罪论和害怕浮动论、中间空洞论进行了理论解释。再次，针对新兴国家汇率选择的两难困境提出了新兴国家制度安排的框架。第一、增加汇率浮动性的两种解决方案：BBC规则和“管理浮动加”；第二、在增加汇率浮动性的同时，新兴国家的汇率制度安排还必须重点考虑资本项目开放因素。偏向浮动的中间汇率制与适当的资本管制适用于大多数新兴国家。最后，进行了国别研究，通过对波兰、智利、中国台湾、泰国等四个国家或地区汇率制度演变的案例研究得出经验性启发。波兰汇率演变的成功在于汇率制度的选择顺应了不同时期经济金融环境的变化，根据本国资本账户开放进程和货币政策操作目标主动进行调整。智利案例说明了，当一国从固定汇率制向更灵活的汇率制度演进时，必须确定其货币政策的新框架。从台湾案例可知，在政府管制色彩较重的地区（国家），进行汇?更多还原

【Abstract】 During the Southeast Asian crisis, China survived the crisis thanks to strict capital account control, although China’s exchange rate pegged to U.S. dollar like other emerging countries or regions (below called as emerging countries) in the Southeast Asia. A large number of surplus in balance of payment in recent years, the western countries’ pressure on the appreciation of RMB since 2003, and the surge of the foreign exchange reserve, challenge the existing exchange rate regime of Chinese RMB. It is urgent to make some adjustment to the exchange rate regime of Chinese RMB. As an emerging country China is incorporating into the international capital market day by day, but its financial degree of opening is lower than other emerging countries. Evolution of exchange rate regime in emerging countries during the liberalization of capital account should be good lesson to China.This thesis is written according to the following logic: first of all, through understanding exchange rate regime in the whole world and existing exchange rate regime theories, drawing the general conclusion on the choice of exchange rate regimes; secondly, combining the theories on exchange rate regime with characteristics of emerging countries and analyzing the experience and lessons on the choice of regime; finally, from the perspective of " Impossible Trinity ", proving RMB exchange rate regime should carry on dynamic changes with the changes in economic environment. The thesis consists of four chapters altogether: Chapter I summarizes the classification of exchange rate regime and distribution of the regime of exchange rate in the whole world. First, defines the regime of exchange rate. Exchange rate regime means a series of <WP=9>regulations and acts to define value and the change modes of exchange rate. Then, compares the criteria for classification. And also summarizes the meanings and pluses and minuses of 8 kinds of exchange rate regimes under IMF1999 classification standard. Finally, uses the latest reports of IMF to prove that the regime of exchange rate is unbalanced in the global distribution. Distribution of the exchange rate regimes concentrates on four classes: exchange arrangements with no separate legal tender, conventional fixed peg arrangements, managed floating with no preannounced path for exchange rate, independent floating. Chapter II reviewes the general theories on the choice of the regime of exchange rate according to the historical sequences and offers the theoretical foundation to analyze exchange rate regime of the emerging countries and China. Optimum Currency Area theory represents traditional theory on the choice of exchange rate regime and offers a lot of practical standards; Mundell-Fleming model and “Impossible Trinity” are theoretical foundations of this thesis, but it is suggested that the theory should be expanded in order to explaining the association between intermediate exchange rate regime and monetary policy independence; BBC rule, “hollowing-out of intermediate regimes” and “original sin” and “fear of floating” is the new development on exchange rate regime. Finally, points out that the choice of the regime of exchange rate is a dynamic course, not merely a static problem. Meanwhile, like other economic policies, the choice of exchange rate regime may reflect the policy policymaker and public partiality, not only determined by the economic environment. On long terms, the choice of exchange rate regime is not once and for all, there is no single currency regime is right for all countries or at all time. Chapter III studies the characteristics of emerging countries and theories explaining the exchange rate regime of emerging countries, and draws some <WP=10>conclusions through case study on specific countries. First, defines the meaning of the emerging country. According to the definition of IMF, the emerging countries referred to the countries whose financial market is immature but already open to foreign investors. This thesis defines emerging countries as co更多还原