银行项目贷款评估方法探讨

【作者】 蒋胜；

【导师】 陈野华；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 一、主要思路和逻辑结构近几年，随着经济的发展，银行间竞争的日趋激烈，我国商业银行一直把信贷业务作为一项常抓不懈的重要工作，并通过加强信贷管理、优化信贷投向来规范和促进信贷业务的发展。同时贷款规模的急剧扩张和信贷业务发展中存在的种种不良倾向，特别是存量贷款中不良贷款的增加造成信贷资产风险的加剧，迫使我们有必要去认真分析贷款管理中存在的主要问题。而项目贷款评估是银行信贷管理系统中防范风险的第一道关，它可以对项目建设的必要性、可行性作出评价，对项目的经济效益进行预测，筛选掉不符合贷款条件及风险性较大的项目，避免贷款决策失误，保证贷款安全回收，降低不良资产，提高资产质量，以实现项目贷款的科学决策和合理投放，确保项目贷款的高效低险。只有正确运用项目贷款评估这一特殊手段，才能达到规避、防范和控制贷款风险的目的，实现贷款效益提高的基本要求。另一方面，随着我国经济的发展特别是即将加入WTO，银行项目贷款评估工作将面临严峻的挑战：一是投融资主体的变化和企业竞争性项目投资日益增多，对评估质量和效益提出更高要求；二是融资方式呈多样化，评估技术和评估重点有所不同；三是当前调整经济结构的工作主线是要求做好市场预测和评估，为制定贷款资金的进入和退出作政策把关。因此，项目贷款评估是银行的一项极其重要的工作。研究银行项目贷款评估方法对于降低我国金融风险及银行贷款决策都具有十分重要的实际意义。本文研究的主要思路和逻辑结构是：要研究项目贷款评估方法，首先需要说明项目贷款评估的一般概念和理论，特别是项目贷款评估与可行性研究的联系和区别，以及项目贷款评估自身所具有的特点等。在此基础上，通过对我国国有银行项目贷款管理政策改革的演变历程的概述，对当前我国银行项目贷款管理的特点以及存在的问题进<WP=4>行深入的探讨，并提出政策建议。然后，在现代金融理论、投资学、财务管理、计量经济学、技术经济学等理论基础上，从项目盈利能力、项目偿债能力和项目风险三个方面的传统评估方法入手，结合项目贷款评估的实际案例，对项目贷款评估方法进行了较为深入系统的探讨，指出了传统评估方法的不足和缺陷，并提出了比较可行的修正完善方法。二、主要内容全文共分三章。第一章是对项目贷款评估做了一个概述。项目贷款评估是世界银行在20世纪70年代运用项目可行性研究技术发展起来的一套贷款风险评估体系，目前已成为国内外银行对中长期贷款项目进行全面调查的重要手段和贷款决策的重要依据。因此，项目贷款评估并不完全等同于可行性研究，二者之间既有联系又有区别，应该说项目贷款评估比可行性研究更具有权威性。接着，通过对我国国有银行项目贷款管理政策改革的演变历程的概述，对当前我国银行项目贷款管理的特点以及存在的问题进行了深入的探讨。我国当前银行项目贷款管理存在的主要问题突出表现为：一是信贷评估机构并未独立；二是评估办法僵化统一；三是评估队伍建设滞后。针对以上问题，提出了政策建议。论文的第二章是对项目贷款评估的传统方法进行综述，第三章是在项目贷款评估传统方法的基础上进行改进。在这里，本文对项目贷款评估的传统方法重点阐述了项目贷款盈利能力评估、项目贷款偿债能力评估和项目贷款风险评估方法。1、项目盈利能力直接关系到项目的偿债能力，因此项目盈利能力评估往往是项目贷款评估的第一步，具有相当重要的作用。项目盈利能力评估主要是通过基本财务报表提供的数据计算出相关财务指标，来评价项目的盈利能力。本文重点探讨了净现值、内部收益率和回收期三个重要指标。净现值法具有广泛的适用性，在理论上也比其他方法更加完善，但在项目贷款实务中运用净现值法存在一些不足和缺陷：一是净现值<WP=5>计算所隐含的假设与现实相悖，特别是假设“项目的投资额都是自有资金，不用还本付息”与银行项目贷款的实际明显格格不入；二是在传统的计算方法上，利息费用“双重计算”使得最终计算得出的净现值不够准确合理；三是传统的净现值法忽略了选择权价值。针对上述不足和缺陷，本节主要应用计量经济学、资本结构的MM理论、Black- Scholes现代期权模型等方法，对净现值法提出了切实可行的修正完善方法。内部收益率本身不受资本市场利率的影响，反映了项目的内在特性，因此内部收益率法是项目贷款评估实务中经常用到的指标。但内部收益率法仍然存在一些不足和缺陷：一是混淆了“投资型”项目和“融资型”项目判定法则的异同；二是对当遇到非常规性现金流时计算得出的多重内部收益率显得无法取舍；三是对不同规模的互斥项目容易决策失误；四是没有考虑互斥项目的时间序列问题。针对上述不足和缺陷，本节主要应用财务管理、投资学等理论，对内部收益率提出了切实可行的修正完善方法。回收期反映一个项目投资回收的快慢程度，可以近似作为衡量项目变现能力和风险度量的近似指标，因此回收期法也是项目贷款评估实务中一个重要的参考指标。但回收期法仍然存在一些不足和缺陷：一是回收期法忽略了货币的时间价值；二是回收期法没有考虑现金流量?更多还原

【Abstract】 General thinking and logic structureWith the economy development and more fierce competition, Commercial banks in china put great emphasis on the loan and credit, but due to the expansion of loan scale and the accumulation of bad asset, it become urgent for us to analyze the problems that existed in the loan management carefully. Among them, the loan appraisal is the first gate to guard the credit risk, because it can help to forecast the economic profit of projects, filter the loan application with relatively high risk, avoid the loan decision mistakes, guarantee the safe return of loans and lower the bad assets etc. On the other hand, with china entering WTO, the bank loan appraisal faced lots of challenge: firstly, it required higher quality and profit. Secondly, due to the diverse of financing approaches, the appraisal technical and emphasis will differ from the past. Thirdly, currently, it is important to do a better job in the market forecast and appraisal. Therefore, the loan appraisal is an extremely important job. Researching in it had a significantly practical meaning to lower the financial risk and loan decision as well.This thesis began with the introduction of general concept and theory of loan appraisal especially the difference and relationship of loan appraisal and feasible study. Next, through the summary of the reform history of loan management in state-owned banks, the author analyzed its current features and problems and proposed some policy suggestions. After that, on the theoretic basis of modern finance, investment, financial management, econometric science etc, this thesis probed in the loan appraisal approach from the following three aspects: the profit ability, the repayment ability and the risk. In addition, some practice examples were <WP=9>used. In the end, the author pointed out the limitation of traditional ones and put forward some feasible modified approaches.contentThere are three chapters. the first chapter summarized the loan appraisal. The second chapter analyzed several traditional project appraisal approaches,and the third chapter made some improvements.Profit ability determined the repayment ability, so it is important to take profit ability as the first step. We can appraise it by calculating some financial ratio from financial reports. In this thesis, the net present value(NPV), internal rate of return(IRR) and the repayment period will be discussed.NPV approach is wildly used and in theory it is better than others. But there still existed some limitations when it was used in the loan practice. Firstly, the assumption in NPV contradicted with the reality. Secondly, as to the traditional calculation approach, the interest cost was accounted twice, thus it resulted to the incorrect final NPV. Thirdly, the traditional NPV ignored the option value. So this chapter will put forward some feasible modified approach by use of econometric science, MM theory and Black- Scholes option model etc.IRR has its own limitations. Firstly , it mixed up the similarity and difference of “investment” project and “finance” project. Secondly, when we met irregular cash flow, there will exist several IRR which is hard to choose the right one. Thirdly, it will make a mistake when we have to make a decision among mutually exclusive projects. Lastly, it don’t consider the time serial problem among mutually exclusive projects.The repayment period can also be used in the loan appraisal. Its limitation lies in the followings: firstly it ignored the time value of money. Secondly , it doesn’t consider the time serial problem of cash flow.The next part is the discussion about the repayment ability appraisal. <WP=10>It was made up of two kinds of analysis. One is static analysis and the other is active analysis. The former requires the calculation of debt ratio, liquidity ratio and quick ratio, while the latter will judge by referring to the repayment period. At the same time, this chapter will pointed out the limitations of current repayment period app更多还原