中国石油期货问题研究

【作者】 任吉武；

【导师】 倪克勤；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 未来20年中国将面临比较严峻的能源问题，能源安全尤其是石油安全问题越来越重要。在我国能源结构中，与煤炭的比重下降相反，油气的比重将呈加速上升态势。随着经济的高速发展，中国石油供求缺口越来越大，每年进口石油的数量约占石油消费总量的1/3，1993年起就已经跨入了原油净进口国行列；预计到2020年，我国石油的对外依存度将接近60％。石油供应与需求的不对称性导致了国际油价波动频繁，石油价格与政治、军事局势紧密相连。石油是关系国家经济命脉的重要战略物资，解决石油供给安全的对策是建立石油战略储备体系，解决石油价格安全的对策则是建立石油期货市场。没有对期货市场的系统理论分析与严谨阐述，没有对期货交易基本范畴、基本概念的系统理解和把握，期货市场制度就不可能得到正确构造。第二章为推出石油期货提供理论支撑。期货是风险管理的工具，期货市场是一种有效的分散风险的制度。舒尔茨（1968）指出，期货可以提供一种使交易费用降低的合约，期货市场是用于降低交易费用的制度类型。而风险分担的框架，就是套期保值和投机交易。期货市场具有三大相互共生的基本功能：投机功能；价格发现功能、套期保值功能。期货价格发现是价格趋势的发现，而不仅仅是价格水平发现，价格发现是一个动态过程。期现价格的趋同性和期货保证金制度是现货商进行套期保值的两个基本条件。期货由于以未来为交易对象，期货合同的价格波动起伏，交易者可以据此利用价差赚取风险利润。期货的投机功能与价格发现、套期保值功能一起共生于期货市场中。期货交易是建立在现货交易基础上的，是一般契约交易的发展。期货市场是现代市场体系的重要组成部分，期货市场能够降低交易成本，有利于健全市场经济体系，提高经济运行效率，同时能够提高综<WP=4>合竞争力，维护国家经济安全。石油与金融业本身相互渗透，石油期货交易与金融货币交易紧密相连。对中国来说，石油期货有利于完善活跃中国期货市场，促进其整体功能的实现。加入WTO后，中国期货业的发展方兴未艾，但任重道远，可行的策略是立足商品期货，及时开展金融期货。自20世纪70年代末出现以来，石油期货市场得到迅速发展，对世界石油业及世界经济都产生了重大的影响。石油期货的产生，是石油市场发展到一定阶段的必然结果，是世界经济发展的客观需要，与必然选择。第三章考察了世界石油期货的发展历程，并对各国的石油期货市场进行了比较研究。期货市场的石油价格呈现出一定的超前性，石油期货价格逐渐成为现货合同的定价基准。在世界石油期货市场上，石油期货价格的国际联动性较强，而且现金交割应用广泛。中国在上个世纪末曾经短暂地开展过石油期货业务，积累了一定的操作经验，后来由于条件不成熟而停止。第四章分析了在我国重推石油期货的可行性，中国目前每年生产原油在1.6亿吨以上，属于世界第五生产大国,同时又是亚洲最大的石油消费国，世界第二大石油消费国,在此基础上建立起来的石油期货市场将有极其活跃的交易行为。石油产品具备期货交易的条件，有较长的产业链及适当的产业结构。国家政策支持关系国计民生的大宗商品期货上市，期货交易所也正在积极筹备。重推石油期货的障碍来自三个方面，中国石油市场的主体单一，只有中石油、中石化，再加上中海洋三大集团。现行的定价机制是一种典型的政府定价机制，对国际油价被动接受，导致国内油价存在调价时滞问题；而且没有考虑到国内外市场的差异，难以反映国内石油市场的真实供求状况。目前的期货市场运行模式落后，管理体制不灵活，缺乏结构合理的交易方式，交易成本偏高，现行的部分法规已经过时。在遭受了数次石油危机的打击后，人们开始寻找一个可以减少这种波动的衍生工具，所以石油期货便应运而生。石油期货具有价格发现的功能，可以综合反映出供求双方对未来某个时间供求关系和价格<WP=5>走势的预期，给企业以生产和销售指导。并且企业可以通过现货市场与期货市场的反向同量操作，通过套期保值来规避价格变动带来的风险。我国作为石油的进口和消费大国，理应拥有相当的石油定价权。通过建立本国石油期货市场，有利于改变我国在国际竞争中的被动不利地位，促进我国成为亚洲能源定价中心。我国参加WTO的一个重要目的就是取得国际经济规则的参与权,而关系到国民经济安全的石油定价参与权更不能轻易放弃。政府部门借助于石油期货市场可以建立科学的石油定价机制，建立规范有序的石油流通体制，优化社会资源配置，提高我国石油市场的核心竞争力。根据入世协议，中国将在正式加入世贸后三年内对外资开放石油零售市场，五年内开放石油批发市场。如果国内企业无法通过石油期货交易进行避险，而对市场价格风险缺乏有效的应对手段，就只有多付成本，承受价格波动所带来的风险。一个完善的石油市场不仅包括现货市场，还应该包括期货市场和远期交易市场。期货市场是一个公开、集中、统一的近似于完全竞争的市场，期货价格能够最大限度地反映全社会对石油价格的预期，能够反映真实的市场供求关系，是真正的市场价格。因此，借助期货市场可以建立科学?更多还原

【Abstract】 China stands as the third largest energy-consuming country after United States and Japan, but the domestic supply of energy cannot satisfy the soaring demand, resulting in the expanding import of energy from outside.In contrast to the falling share of coal in the energy structure, petroleum and gas account for a growing importance. China depends more on energy to develop itself than do developed countries. From 1993 onwards, China has become the net importer of petroleum, and the net importer of crude oil in 1996. The degree of external dependence of petroleum is estimated to be approximately 60 percent for China in 2020.As its economy grows fast, China is now confronting the increasingly urgent issue of energy security, especially petroleum security. The solution to petroleum security lies in the construction of petroleum security system, which consists of supply security and price security. For the goal of supply security, China should follow suit of industrial economies to establish the strategic reserve of petroleum. On the other hand, the imbalance of the supply and demand in the international market leads to the extreme variability of petroleum price influencing macro-economy to a large extent. The resultant economic uncertainty makes the production and sales difficult to handle, thus harming the predicted course of development, which is exact case in China. To ward off the petroleum shock and shelter from price volatility in the world market, it’s time for China to establish our own petroleum futures market to stabilize the price of petroleum, which is obviously a special resource connected closely with national lifeline.Chapter two provides the theoretical support for the petroleum futures market. Futures is a means of risk management, and futures <WP=8>market is an effective systematic arrangement of risk diversification, where “risk” refers to systematic risk together with non-systematic risk.As an advanced development form of spot market, futures market is the developed mode of credit economy as a necessary outcome of market economy. There is a long period and natural course from the original futures transaction to the modern futures market, one of the important motivations is the reduction in the transaction cost.There are three coherent functions of futures: price discovery, hedging and speculation. Market agents are normally limitedly rational, and the market information is always incomplete, different dealers trade with their prediction of the future to form the information of forward price, this means the price discovery of futures, which is, of course, a dynamic concept focusing on the price trend.The prices of futures goods and spot goods have in common the price tendency, and futures is margin transaction, both of which act to be two basic conditions for hedging function. By means of hedging transaction in the futures market and spot market simultaneously, dealer can effectively lock in the loss as least as possible.What is traded in the futures market is the futures goods with fluctuating price, the fact provide a chance to make a profit through the price difference. Speculators are just the opposite of arbitrager, who are risk lovers, however, the latter are apparently risk averse.Futures market is an indispensable component of modern market system, because it can lower transaction cost and increase economic efficiency, moreover, futures market can enhance the comprehensive competition capacity, and in the end, safeguard national security.Petroleum is closely linked to finance with mutual influences, so does petroleum futures with financial transactions. In the context of China, petroleum futures is able to enrich and stimulate the futures market, facilitating the realization of its overall function. After the <WP=9>accession of WTO, the development of futures market for China is a promising task but still has a long way to go.Chapter three takes a look at the development path of world petroleum futures market. Since its appearance in 1970s,更多还原