【作者】 陈红；

【导师】 顾冲时；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 堤防工程的安全是关系到国计民生的大事，因此研究堤防工程安全综合评价方法具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。本文以河道堤防工程为主要研究对象，应用层次分析、灰色系统等理论和方法，对堤防工程的安全综合评价方法、综合评价结构体系、评价指标度量方法以及堤防工程安全预警模式等方面内容进行了深入的分析研究。主要研究内容如下： 1、针对河道堤防工程特点，拟定了构建堤防工程安全综合评价结构体系的原则；探讨了堤防工程安全综合结构体系的建立方法，并对安全评价集及安全综合评价方法等内容进行了深入研究，确定了堤防工程安全评价的四级划分法。 2、在综合分析各评价指标在表述方法、取值范围、度量方法和度量单位等方面差异的基础上，提出了评价指标的度量及归一化方法。 3、通过对已有权重确定方法的比较研究，将确定权重的乘积标度法、可拓层次分析法及神经网络方法应用于堤防工程安全综合评价中；基于最优化准则，建立了评价指标融合权重的确定方法。 4、根据堤防工程安全综合评价的特点，利用模糊数学及神经网络等理论和方法，建立了堤防工程的安全综合评价模型，并结合计算机软硬件技术开发研制了堤防工程安全综合评价软件。 5、利用回归分析方法和灰色系统理论建立了堤防工程安全预报模型，初步设计了堤防工程安全预警系统模式，并开发研制了堤防安全监测实时评价软件。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is important and meaningful to research methods of assessing the safety of levee works for which is related with the national economy and the people’s livelihood. The river-way levee is regarded as main researching object in this thesis. The theory and method, such as analytic hierarchy process, grey system and so on, together with the knowledge of embankment engineering, are introduced into the thesis, which performs relatively detailed study on method of comprehensive safety assessment, synthesis assessment structure system, method of measuring assessment index and the precautionary mode of safety evaluation of the levee engineering. The main contents are as follows.1. Six rules of studying out the assessment index and the method of founding the comprehensive safety assessment structure system of the levee engineering are discussed. Also, the design of safety evaluation aggregation of the system is lucubrated and the fourth-class divisional method of safety grade is ascertained.2. The methods of standardizing original data for quantitative and qualitative safety assessment index are studied. By using these methods, the comparing difficulties between different assessment indexes at the same layer brought by the difference in expressive method, the scale of value, measuring method and units of assessment indexes of the comprehensive safety assessment structure system of the levee engineering is solved.3. Based on analyzing and comparing the existing methods of determining weight, multiplication scale method, extension AHP method and ANN method are used to the safety assessment of the levee engineering. And the model of calculating syncretic weight of safety assessment index is founded by using optimization guideline.4. According the characteristic of comprehensive safety assessment of the levee engineering, model of comprehensive safety assessment of the levee engineering is founded by using fuzzy comprehensive appraisal method and ANN theory. With the modern computer technique of software and hardware, the system of safety assessment on the levee engineering is developed.5. Based on the multi-level recursive analysis and the grey system theory, the forecast models on the safety assessment of the levee engineering are founded. And with the modern computer technique of software and hardware, the precautionary mode of the safety assessment of the levee engineering is designed.更多还原