【作者】 左玉强；

【导师】 朱德举；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2003， 硕士

【副题名】以太原市万柏林区为例

【摘要】 在城市化和工业化进程中，城乡结合部的耕地面临着是为城市建设所用还是为农业所用的两难选择。本文选取太原市万柏林区进行实例研究，以统计方法结合GIS技术对研究区域耕地转化的变化规律进行分析，结果显示出在城市化和工业化的不断冲击下，1990年后万柏林区的耕地转化呈现出：耕地数量持续下降、以城市建设用地和精细园艺用地为主要流转方向、耕地相对变化率由靠近市区的城乡结合部内侧向外围逐渐下降、耕地的景观破碎度降低、耕地分布重心不断向城乡结合部外侧偏移等重要动态特征。同时，利用系统分析方法针对万柏林区耕地转化的动态机制展开研究，明确了人类活动作为耕地转化主导驱动力的地位。在人类驱动力研究中紧紧围绕万柏林区所具有的城乡结合部特殊地位展开分析，并以城市化和工业化在耕地转化中所发挥的关键作用为研究切入点，着重分析了人口变化、经济发展与耕地转化间的关系，揭示了工业化和城市化在驱动万柏林区耕地转化过程中的突出作用。并在此基础上结合土地评价与元胞自动机基本原理实现了对万柏林区2000～2010年耕地转化的预测和模拟。从而不仅为合理、有效地调控区域耕地转化提供了依据，而且也为区域社会经济发展战略的制定提供了指导和参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 During the course of urbanization and industrialization, the cultivated land in the urban fringe is occupied because of the expanding of city. With the Wanbolin district in Taiyuan city as the basic area of the study, this dissertation studies on the disciplinarian of the change of cultivated land, applying GIS techniques and statistical method. As findings show that under the temptation of urbanization and industrialization, the use conversion of the cultivated land in Wanbolin district has its own dynamic characters since 1990: the quantity of cultivated land has been keeping diminishing; while construction using and gardening is the main way of the cultivated land use transform; the land fragmentation degree of landscape is decreasing; the center of gravity of cultivated land distributing is keeping moving towards the outfield of the urban fringe. It is sure that the activity of human being is the main driving force of the changes of cultivated land, through the study on the dynamic mechanism of the cultivated land in Wanbolin district by applying the systems analysis. Then this dissertation focuses on the especial status of the urban fringe in Wanbolin district, and emphasizes the analysis of the relationship between the cultivated land use transform and the economic development as well as the change of population, which begin with the key effect brought by the urbanization and industrialization in the course of the cultivated land use transform. Combining with the theory of land evaluation and cellular automata, it comes to the prediction and simulation of the change of the cultivated land in Wanbolin district from 2000-2010,based on the analysis above. As a result the prediction and simulation should be beneficial to the cultivated land use conversion as warrants effectively in such area. What’s more it makes the direction and reference for constituting the social and economic development stratagem in the study area.更多还原