【作者】 李海英；

【导师】 王建中；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 价值管理时代的到来，使价值评估理论和方法成为人们日益关注的热点问题，关于企业价值评估的研究，在西方财务理论界已经有了较多阐述，我国由于过去长期实行计划经济体制，企业价值概念的提出和运用时间较晚，缺少现代经营理念的积累，企业价值评估理论与方法的研究相对滞后。迄今为止，以历史数据为基础的传统财务估价方法仍然是我国实务界的主要评估方法，理论上更为科学的现金流量折现(DCF)方法虽然是西方企业价值评估的主流方法，但是由于其参数选择的不确定性和我国市场的特殊性，在我国，至今尚未进入真正的应用阶段。本文以企业价值评估的经典理论为基础，结合我国企业和资本市场的实际情况，在分析了现金流量折现模型中参数选择的问题之后，以我国上市企业为研究对象，实证研究了现金流量折现(DCF)模型在我国资本市场上的适用性，试图选择一套适合我国企业价值评估的模型体系，以期为构建有中国特色的企业价值评估方法体系做一些有益的探索。本文实证研究采用了双程回归技术和灰色关联度分析方法，第一程是用时间序列求β系数；第二程回归在性质上是横截面的，通过对股权评估价值与股权市场价值的线性拟合，对其进行统计检验；最后，通过灰色关联度分析方法，分析了二者的关联关系，检验了在合理选择模型参数的基础上，DCF方法在我国资本市场上的适用性。从本文选择的有限数据资料所做的结果来看，该模型所做结果与市场价值具有高度的关联关系，因此，在本文所研究的样本范围内，该模型很好的估价了企业的价值，根据统计学样本选择的原理，从样本推断出总体，笔者认为本文中对模型参数的确定方法是可取的，在满足该模型基本假定的前提下，按本文所述参数确定方法，该模型可以很好地评估我国上市公司的企业价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the arrival of value management era, being the theoretical basis of value management, theories and methods in value assessing are becoming hot topics and drawing more and more attentions from the people. Although many concerning researches have been conducted in the west, in China, being a country has experienced a long period of planned economy, both the proposition and the application of enterprise value were relatively late, and the accumulation of modern managerial theories was limited, researches on enterprise value assessing, both theoretically and practically, lagged behind relatively. Until now, traditional financial appraising methods that based on historical data are still the mainstream in practice within China. In contrast, because of the uncertainties in parameter choosing and the particularities of Chinese markets, the methods of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) still have not entered real applications in China so far, although they kept being the mainstream in enterprise value assessing in the west. Based on the concerning classical theories, depended on the performance of Chinese enterprises and capital markets, took listed companies as the object, the paper is attempting to choose a system suitable for enterprise value assessing in China, so as to make some beneficial explorations in formulating a enterprise value assessing system with Chinese characteristics, after the practical analyses on the fitness of DCF to China. This paper adopted paired-stage technology and gray-related-degree methods in positive researches. In the first stage, p coefficient is computed with time serial method; and in the second stage, as the regressions are cross section by nature, after the linear fitting of stock values on the market to the stock values being assessed, and after the statistical tests, the relations between them are analyzed with the method of gray-related-degree, besides, on the basis of choosing model parameter rationally, the suitability of DCF to Chinese capital market is testified as well. According to the selected data, outcomes of the analyses possesses high correlations with the market values in this model, thus it has evaluated the enterprise values within the range of the data we have collected. According to the principles of statistical samples choosing, we argues that the parameter-determining methods used in the paper are reasonable, so we can predict the populations by the samples. To sum up, using these parameter-determining methods that have satisfied the basic presumes, this model has assessed the values of Chinese enterprises properly.更多还原