【作者】 王晓玲；

【导师】 蒋经法；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 财政学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 财政在经济稳定、资源配置、社会公平等方面发挥着不可替代的作用，并且资金主要来源于纳税人的收入牺牲，许多国家在处理财政问题上都注意谨慎性原则的运用。特别是在当今私人资本流量增加、动荡性加大情况下，由于未来事件的不确定性以及信息不对称，政府对风险尤其是微观经济主体带来的风险难以做出准确预测，风险尤其是隐藏的风险对财政造成的冲击往往具有突发性，影响财政的长期稳固性。因此财政风险引起了世界范围的广泛关注，对财政风险的研究也成为近年来的热门话题。 我国正由计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济转变，体制改革本身是一个大的利益调整过程，在这一过程中，必然会导致大量不稳定因素的产生。这些因素的客观存在，往往会带来一定程度的社会混乱。作为政府而言，担负着维持社会安定、社会正义和社会公平等方面的责任。当社会出现不稳定的潜在可能性或发生社会混乱时，政府有责任进行防范和化解，这必将加大财政的负担和压力。 县乡财政在财政体系中处于基础地位，其运行状况关系到整个财政体系的稳固，也关系到经济和社会的稳定。县乡财政赤字不管账面赤字还是隐性赤字都十分严重，赤字县乡比例较高，债务负担沉重，基层财政的稳固性受到了严重威胁。与其他级别财政不同，县乡财政更多地面临乡镇、农村及农民与农业发展的问题，基层财政不堪重负，县乡应付风险的能力受到了财力的牵制。 本文试图从县乡财政风险的三个方面，财政决策者机会主义风险、债务风险、财政收支秩序混乱风险，剖析财政风险背后的原因，即政策及考核指标压力、财政困难、体制不完善、管理制度(包括债务管理和财政收支管理)缺陷。根据风险形成原因，提出防范与化解的对策与措施。本文的写作框架大致如下： 文章第一部分为前言，主要介绍了本文的写作背景、国内外研究成果以及写作思路。针对国内国外的研究现状，对于财政风险的分析为后文论述县乡财政风险做好理论铺垫。 第二部分简要介绍政府财政风险的一般理论，从中央财政和地方财政角度分别阐述财政风险的一般表现。对中央财政风险，分析了中央政府面临更多不确定性的缘由以及中央政府承担的风险。对地方财政风险的一般分析，主要从我国国情出发，给出财政风险的特征以及表现。在此部分中还尝试对财政风险和财政内部的几种现象和名词加以解释和辨析，并稍加详细地阐述当前财政风险隐藏的缘由。 第三部分详细分析县乡财政风险的表现。除了描述与一般地方财政风险的特征相似之处，还分析了县乡财政自身特点，总结出我国县乡财政风险的表现：财政决策者机会主义风险，政府债务风险，收支秩序混乱风险。此部分根据中国县乡特点，结合国外研究成果，在调研数据和已有理论的基础上归纳出主要的县乡财政风险。 第四部分分析县乡财政风险成因。针对第二部分的县乡财政风险表现，探讨财政风险背后的原因：一是政策和考核指标压力；二是财政困难加压、难以维持平衡；三是体制性原因促成财政风险，其中分析了财政体制弊端和不足，探讨了深化改革财政兜底风险；四是财政收支管理和债务管理制度缺陷。在县乡财政困难原因分析中，笔者从制度角度考虑，认为国家经济发展赶超战略剥夺了农村发展的机会，户籍管理制度剥夺了农民境遇改善权利，以及政府机构臃肿，这些都使县乡财政举步维艰。 文章第五部分是本文的核心。根据县乡财政风险形成的成因分析，提出防范和化解财政风险的对策与建议：（1）彻底改革不合市场经济发展和公共财政建设需要的政府考核制度，减轻政府的政策考核压力；（2）在宪法范围内明确各级政府职能，规范政府行为；（3）发展县乡经济，推进城镇化建设，同时精简机构和人员，减轻县乡财政压力；（4）改革现行的财政管理体制和财税制度，特别是完善农村税费改革和加大中央对地方的转移支付力度，加强农村基础设施和基础教育这“两个基础”的建设和投入，实行城乡均等化财政服务，消除城乡有别的财政二元体制，从根本上减轻农民负担和提升农民的社会福利；（5）完善社会保障体制、企业经营体制、银行经营体制，从财政体制外防范与化解县乡财政风险；（6）切实加强财政收支管理制度和债务管理体制建设，从监管制度上为县乡财政风险问题的防范与化解提供坚实的制度保障。更多还原

【Abstract】 Many countries pay much attention to prudent principle of finance when they are confronted with financial problems in the government, as public finance plays an unsubstitutible role with the funds mainly collected from taxpayers with respect to economic stabilization, resource allocation and social equity. Much concern has been given to the fiscal risk and fiscal risk has been a fashionable topic in the world. Risks, especially hidden risks, usually giving a sudden shock to public finance, influence long-term stability of public finance, on the ground that there are increasing volume and volatility of private capital flows, uncertainty about future events, asymmetric information as well as limited ability of government to precisely estimate the risks brought out by private sectors.As China is in the process of transforming from the system of planned economy to that of marketing socialism, the reform in the system is also a process of interest adjustment during which a great many unstable factors are to be given rise to and will result in somewhat social chaos. As to the government, it undertakes the responsibility of stabilization, social justice and equity in the society. Therefore according to its responsibility the government and public finance will be under heavy burden and great pressure when the instability of society is hidden or social chaos occurs. Finance at county and village level being basic in the fiscal system of public finance, financial condition at county and village level is crucial to the whole system as well as to the stability of society and economy. The deficit including book deficit and hidden deficit are now in serious condition. And the ratio of county and village with deficit to the whole is high and at the same time the debt burden is heavy, which threat the stability of finance at grass-root level. Different from other levels, the finance at county and village level is facing more problems of village, peasant, and agriculture. The ability of governments at county and village level to cope with fiscal risks is contained by such factors as financial condition of government and overstaffed organization and so on.The essay tries to analyze what cause the fiscal risks in terms with three aspects of fiscal risks at county and village level, such as opportunism of government, heavy debtsand liabilities and bad management of public revenues and expenditures. Later it comes up with suggestions towards preventing and eliminating fiscal risks. The structure of the paper is following:Part 1 is the introduction of this paper, simply giving the background and purpose of the paper and comments on existing research results. In this paper the author offers her own ideas about the categories of fiscal risks, laying good foundation for the analysis on manifestations of and reasons for fiscal risks.Part 2 briefly introduces the general theories of fiscal risks, focusing on the manifestations of fiscal risks, respectively from the point view of central government and sub national governments. It estimates the risks undertaken by central government and the reasons for being confronted by central governments with increasing uncertainty and risks. As to the theory of sub national fiscal risks, the brief description of the characteristics and manifestations of fiscal risks at sub national level is given in accordance with the reality in China. Several important issues and concepts are also discussed in this part where more attention has been given to what contribute to the risk hiding in China.Part 3 examines in detail the manifestations of fiscal risks at county and village level. Besides the similarities to the general characteristics of fiscal risks in sub national governments, the features of fiscal risks at county and village level are discussed in this part. After the analysis it is summarized that there are three types of fiscal risks at county and village level: opportunism risk of government, liabilities and obligations of government, and bad management of revenues and expenditures更多还原