论中国资本项目开放

【作者】 王静；

【导师】 林桂军；

【作者基本信息】 对外经济贸易大学 ， 金融学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 按照国际收支口径，通常将一国货币可兑换的程度区分为经常项目可兑换、资本项目可兑换和包括经常项目与资本项目可兑换在内的完全可兑换。1994年我国外汇管理体制改革，实现了人民币经常项目有条件可兑换，1996年11月27日，中国人民银行行长戴相龙致函国际货币基金组织，宣布我国自1996年12月1日起，接受该组织协定第八条款的有关义务，实现人民币经常项目下的可兑换。但我国对资本项目一直实行着较为严格的管制。可以认为这些管制措施，对维护我国国际收支平衡，成功抵御东南亚金融危机的冲击，促进涉外经济健康发挥了积极作用。但是,从世界范围看，经济一体化和金融自由化是大势所趋，入世客观上使我国进一步扩大对外开放，加速了我国融入世界经济主流和与国际货币体系接轨的进程。实际上，无论世界贸易组织，还是国际货币基金组织，近年来都对成员国的资本帐户开放提出了更高的要求。例如：世贸组织关于服务贸易尤其是金融服务贸易的自由化主张，已开始渗透到资本帐户开放。而国际货币基金组织在1997年年会上也曾明确动议，将基金组织的管辖范围从取消经常项目汇兑限制扩大到鼓励成员国的资本流动自由化,并提出资本项目的自由化应当作为基金组织的目标之一。尽管在东南亚金融危机之后，IMF也多次指出:资本项目自由化会带来大量的好处，但自由化也带来了风险，必须小心管理。但是，IMF关于资本项目自由化的目标没有改变。因此，逐步放从资本管制，实现资本项目自由化既是我国涉外经济体制改革的长远目标，也是目前我国适应涉外经济发展及入世要求的客观选择。全文分三章对我国资本项目开放问题进行了较为深入、务实的研究和探讨。第一章：首先对资本项目自由兑换的涵义加以界定，而后，结合我国资本项目管制的现状对我国资本管制的动因作了深层次的分析。目前，从整体上我国属于资本项目严格管制国家。我国作为世界上最大的发展中国家，在经济社会的许多方面明显落后于发达国家，同时我国经济体制又处于从计划经济向市场经济的转轨过程中，在这种背景下，对资本账户实行较为严格的管制是必要的。通过实行较严格的资本项目管制，一方面可以防止境内资本大量外逃，保证国内经济持续稳定发展得到必要的资金，同时，也防止境外短期资本大量随意流入境内，冲<WP=3>击国内经济和金融的平稳运行。我国多年来经济持续稳定发展的现状也说明了资本管制在这方面是发挥了重大作用的。第二章：从内在需要和外在动因两方面，分析了我国当前尽快开放资本项目的必要性。首先 ，资本管制将国内市场与国外市场隔绝的能力不断弱化，是我国尽快开放资本项目的重要内在动因。众多的国际实践经验证明，在经济和金融全球化的背景下，对实行开放型经济的国家来说，要实现完全的资本管制防止任何形式的资本外逃、外资“热钱”流入，几乎是不可能的。因此这也说明资本管制只能在有限的时间内起到有限的隔离作用，并不能长期有效地保护国内经济和金融市场的发展。我国大量外逃资本的存在，以及违规“热钱”的流入，也说明我国资本管制将国内市场与国外市场隔绝的能力不断弱化。其次，加入世界贸易组织对我国资本项目管制的影响客观上推动了我国资本项目开放的进程。尽管加入世界贸易组织后，我国承诺世贸组织义务并不等于人民币资本项目可兑换。但世界贸易组织各项义务的核心就是减少政府对经济活动的行政干预，这无疑对我国实行资本管制形成更大的外部约束力。我国加入WTO后，随着削减关税，逐步取消非关税壁垒，增加贸易政策的透明度，放宽对外资的限制，开放目前受到限制的服务贸易市场等各项承诺的逐步落实，将大幅度推进我国贸易自由化和资本流动的自由化，尤其是银行业市场的全方位开放，必然对我国资本账户管理体系产生巨大的压力，明显威胁这些管制的有效性，也由此对资本账户开放提出了更迫切的要求。另外，资本项目开放后，便利国企重组及其跨境资本运营，有利于促进我国金融改革、金融创新和金融效率的提高，有利于国内企业和个人在全球范围内分散经济风险和增加金融投资的收益，有利于减少因实施资本管制而投入的管制费用，增加国家和社会效益，有利于推动我国金融市场的完善和深化等潜在的收益也是我国开放资本项目的重要动因。第三章：结合我国当前经济现状，全面而深入地分析了我国成功应对资本项目开放的前提条件，并提出一些相应的政策调整意见和建议。鉴于第二章的分析，我国开放资本项目已是大势所趋。但是，这并不意味着我国推行资本项目可兑换就应“快”字当头，从制度变迁的意义上说，推动我国资本项目可兑换，重要的是分析我国的经济条件。市场机制发育成熟、经济基础健康、宏观调控技术娴熟以及金融体系稳健等，通常被列为一国进行资本项目可兑换的必备条件。尤其是金融体制改革没有取得实质性的进展，实现完全的资本项目可兑换的时机就不成<WP=4>熟。 本部分首先从国有资产质量差、效率低、盈利水平低，资本充足率低，银行不良资产超额积累方面，深入剖析了我国国内金融体系的弱点，强调在资本项目开放的情况下，我国金融体系特别是国有银行体系的脆弱性会被放大，这将严重影响更多还原

【Abstract】 According to global bureau of statistics, the exchangeability of a currency is divided into 3 categories; normal item transactions, financial item transactions, and a combination of both. Following the foreign exchange policy reforms in 1994, conditional currency exchange is possible for normal item transactions. Subsequently an announcement was made by Mr. Dai Xiang Long, chairman of the Mensheng Bank of China on the 27th November 1996 that as of 1st December 1996, all conditions stipulated in article 8 of IMF practice will be enforced, hence realizing full currency exchange under normal item transactions. With respect to currency exchange under financial item transactions, our country has placed relatively strict controls. It is recognized that these regulatory measures have protected our best interests, maintaining our balance of payments, and allowed us to evade the detrimental effects of the South-East Asian financial crisis while maintaining economic integrity and growth. However, from an international perspective, economic unification and financial liberalization is a pressing trend. Optimistically, this progression opens our doors, accelerates our penetration into the world markets and allows our currency to enter the mainstream global foreign exchange.In reality, May it be the World Trade Organization (WTO) or the International Monetary Funds (IMF), has high requirements over the financial accounts of its member countries. For example, the WTO has looked closely into the liberalization of service provision, in particular financial service provision. As for IMF, it clarified in the 1997 Annual Meeting that one of the main organization’s objectives is to expand its role to promote financial liberalization. Since the Asian financial crisis, the IMF has pointed out on several occasions that financial liberalization brings along many benefits, yet it also presents many pitfalls. Although caution must be exercised, it has not deterred IMF’s aim to achieve this objective. As such, loosening systematically financial controls, and hence realizing financial liberalization is the long-term goal of our economic policy reforms. It also presents itself as the pathway towards economic development and internationalization.This paper, divided into 3 sections, analyzes and discusses the anticipated problems of financial liberalization.Section 1: This section firstly defines the realms of financial liberalization. It then provides a deeper analysis of our country’s latest controls. Currently on a macro scale, our country belongs to a group of countries with strict controls. Our country being the biggest developing Asian country is generally considered behind in many aspects as compared to more developed countries. In the process of catching up, relatively strict controls over financial activities are crucial. Under regulations, funds outflows are prevented on the one hand, economic stability is maintained on the other through control of reserves. At the same time, it also moderated the economic and financial effects of heavy funds inflows. Our past success with economic stability steady developments is a good testament of the effectiveness of our financial controls.<WP=6>Section 2: An analysis of the push factors towards financial liberalization generated by both internal and external stimulus. Firstly, controls directed towards financial isolation has weakened, this is one of the main domestic reasons for financial liberalization. From many international examples, under the growing trend of economic and financial globalization, a country in attempt to open its financial system has an almost impossible task of maintaining full control over funds leakage and ’hot cash’ injections. Hence, this points to the fact that our controls can only achieve temporary financial isolation, and not the long-term protection of our domestic economic and financial development. Furthermore, signs of capital outflows and sudden injections of ’hot cash’ inflows only reinforce the idea that our temporar更多还原