【作者】 时力；

【导师】 施欣； 王正；

【作者基本信息】 上海海运学院 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 目前，以信息技术为代表的新技术开始渗透到社会经济的每一个领域。对交通运输业特别是干散货航运业的技术进步现状和未来的发展趋势进行分析研究，并以干散货航运企业为主要研究对象，选用系统动力学为经济评价手段研究技术进步对企业经济水平的影响是本文的主要内容。 首先，本文从技术进步的内涵、特征着手，针对目前对技术进步含义存在的不同理解，分别从宏观、中观和微观三个角度阐述了技术进步的含义和特征，并且指明了本文的研究重点，即从宏观和微观两个角度探讨技术进步对干散货航运业的影响。 接着，本文分别从世界交通运输业和国际航运业两方面阐述了技术进步的发展现状，以影响航运业技术进步的五个技术重点，即：船舶技术、航海技术、港口和航道技术、运输技术和信息技术为主要内容进行分析，结合全球新技术的发展趋势，阐述了国际航运业技术进步的发展前景。 然后，本文以干散货航运业为研究重点，从干散货航运业的发展现状入手，借鉴国际航运业和整个交通运输业的技术进步情况，通过对大量案例的分析研究，从船舶技术、运输技术、管理技术和信息技术四个方面对未来干散货航运业技术进步的发展趋势进行了分析。在这部分内容中，本文选取了干散货航运业新技术代表一一信息技术为研究重点，针对其技术发展热点——电子商务展开论述。这一部分同样通过大量案例，从干散货航运企业电子商务网站和电子交易公共平台两个角度进行论述。通过案例分析，旨在揭示干散货航运业电子商务应用现状及未来的发展趋势。 最后，本文运用系统动力学原理综合评价技术进步对干散货航运企业经济效益的促进作用。在现有的研究成果中，大多数都是采用生产函数法完成的，而生产函数法中的技术进步水平是一个剩余量，包含的因素很多，各因素所占的比重又不一样，因此仅用人来度量技术进步的经济效益就不能全面地反映实际情况。特别对微观企业技术进步进行研究时，就很难具体地确定出企业各内部机制在技术进步中所起的作用。另外，由于技术进步是一个不断积累的累积过程，它对经济发展的影响是在逐步累积中体现出来的，因此在研究技术进步问题时，必须考虑这个累积过程。考虑到这些问题，本文采用了系统动力学方法建立技术进步对干散货航运企业经济发展的动态SD模型，并针对干散货航运业的特点，分别从船舶技术、运输技术、职工素质和企业管理技术等方面系统地探讨了技术进步的经济效益，通过对先进技术在干散货航运业的应用评价，测算其对企业经济效益的促进作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, new technologies, represented by the information technology (IT), are going into every field in our society economics. In this paper, we mainly talk about the trend of technology progress development in shipping industry in the future and especially study the influences from the developing technology to the bulk shipping company. By using the Dynamic systems as the evaluated method, the paper discusses the promotion effects to the bulk shipping companies’ economic level from technology progress.Firstly, this paper begins with the intention and the features of the technology progress and makes it clear that the paper will discuss the influences from technology progress to the bulk shipping industry, from the macroscopic and the microcosmic perspective. At the same time, it talks about the significance of this paper.Then, the paper summarizes the present developing conditions from two aspects, the world transportation industry and the international shipping industry. We are focused on five factors that influence the shipping industry, that is, the technology of shipping, navigation, port and channel, transportation and information. With the developing trend of the world new technology, this paper prospects the development of the international shipping technology progress.What is more, the paper aims at the international bulk shipping. Through a great deal of analysis about the cases, the paper studies the developing trend of bulk shipping industry from four aspects: shipping technology, transportation technology, management technology and information technology. In this part, the paper attaches importance on Electronic Commerce, one hot spot in shipping technology progress. We also use many cases, from bulk shipping companies’ Electronic Commerce internet stations and electronic trade public platforms, to talk about Electronic Commerce’s development in bulk shipping industry in the future.At last, the paper evaluated the promotion effects from technology progress in the bulk shipping companies, using dynamic system as the evaluated method. In the present studies, production function is the main technology progress studying method. In this method, technology progress level is a remained quantity and it contains many factors, which have different proportions. As a result, evaluating the enterprises’ technology progress economics only by manmade cannot report the practice conditions comprehensively. In relation to microcosmic enterprises, production function also cannot define each mechanism’s functions in technology progress of an enterprise. Besides, technology progress is an accumulating procedure and its influences in economics are being showed in a long period. For all these consideration, we choose dynamic system as our evaluating method, founding SD model. According to the feature of the bulk shipping company, the paper talks about technology progress economic beneficial from four aspects: shipping technology, transportation technology, personnel and management technology.更多还原