【作者】 戴益文；

【导师】 毛义华；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 建筑经济及管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 住宅在城镇居民家庭的日常生活中占据着重要的地位，随着社会水平的逐步提高，城镇居民家庭对改善住房条件的要求日益强烈。目前，城镇居民住宅房地产市场存在着矛盾是需求与空置同时并存，居民对住宅的需求不能转变成有效需求。这说明了两个问题，一、城镇居民无能力实现自己的住房要求；二、市场不能供应给与居民购买力相匹配的住宅。本文分析城镇居民家庭可支配收入、储蓄的状况，确定城镇中等收入家庭为消费的主体。其次，住房消费不仅与当期的收入有关，城镇居民家庭的长期收入水平更是其住房消费的决定因素，我国正处在经济的转型期，影响城镇居民长期收入的不确定因素很多，其中最主要的为失业风险，从而使城镇居民家庭的长期收入不稳定性加大，为了将来的生活考虑，城镇居民家庭会加大储蓄额，从而限制其当前的住房消费。再次，在家庭支出中，老人的赡养费、小孩的抚养及受教育费在家庭的收入支出中占据了很大的比例，通过分析城镇家庭中老人及小孩的负担比例，说明其对家庭收入支出的影响。本文分析了目前我国社会保障制度不足之处对城镇居民住宅消费的影响，明确政府在城镇居民住宅房地产市场中的角色和应起的作用。最后，本文提出了提高城镇居民住宅市场有效购买力的措施及检验城镇居民住宅消费能力的数学模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 The residence plays an important role in resident’s daily life. With the society progressing gradually, resident families’ requests of improving the house conditional becomes increasingly strong. Presently, the antinomy existing in real estate market is that needs and vacancies are concurrence as well as that the residential requirements of the town can’t be converted to resident’s valid demands. It can be explained in two possibility: one is that town residents can not realize their own desires; the other is that real estate market of the town did not supply the housing that residents could afford. The controllable income and deposit of resident families in town are illuminated, ensuring the moderate and low income families as main consumer part in the town. The housing consumes are related not only to current income, but also to the long-term income in residents which simultaneously is a decisive factor in housing consume. Nowadays China is in the economic transformation period, so the dubious factors that affect the long-term income in residents are a lot, among which unemployment risk is dominating which are enlarge instability of long-term income in residents in town. For the sake of future life, town resident families will increase deposit and limit their current housing consumption. Again, the elders’ alimony, children’s upbringing cost and tuition are the most in homely income and expenses. By analyzing the proportion of the midlife, elders and the children in the town families, their influence on the family income and expenses are explained. The paper analyzes how the deficiencies in our welfarism affect real estate market, nails down the role and function which the government plays in residential residence real estate. Finally, the measures of improving the valid purchasing power of residence and the mathematics model which judge resident consume ability are put forward.更多还原