【作者】 邵长丰；

【导师】 方祥麟；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通信息工程及控制， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 船舶交通管理系统(VTS)是由一个法定机关执行的，旨在改善船舶交通的安全和效率并且保护环境的一种服务。该服务应有能力与船舶相互配合并对VTS区域内出现的交通状况作出反应。 我国VTS已实施了很长时间，在改善我国沿海、港口水域海上交通安全、提高海上交通效率和保护环境等方面，取得了一定的成就和效益。但对其所提供的有效性服务仍缺乏系统的评估。 本文是结合交通部海事局《全国港口VTS效益评估暨危险度评估的研究》的科学研究项目完成的。本文建立了适合我国实际的较为完整的VTS效益评估模型及方法，并应用该方法对天津VTS的效益—费用及VTS覆盖水域危险度进行了评估，得出的评估结果比较符合实际。论文的主要工作如下： 1．对主要研究对象天津VTS功能及其覆盖水域的交通、安全、航行条件等的历史及现状进行了大量的调查、统计和分析，对船舶交通量等进行了预测，给出了分析、预测结果。为效益评估奠定了基础。 2．根据天津海事局VTS近年来的运行经验和数据，应用技术经济学中的有关理论及工程项目评估系统理论与方法进行了建模，建立了天津VTS运行费效分析模型并在此基础上给出了适用于我国国情的港口VTS运行费效分析方法，该方法具有通用性。 3．应用上述方法对天津VTS运行效益进行了货币量化分析和国民经济评价，得出了评估结果，对其中无法量化的部分进行了定性分析。 4．应用电子海图显示与计算机仿真技术并通过模糊综合评判方法及新近国外提出的SJ方法对港口水域进行了危险度评估，仿真和评价计算相互印证，结果比较一致并符合实际。 5．应用并改进了IALA的《VTS手册》给出的评估方法，为国内同类研究提供了理论和计算依据。例如，上述手册仅给出了VTS运行效益评估 与方法的框架和建议，没有系统的计算实例，其效益分析中＊＊S有无对比 的准则是假设的，而本文提出的模型则是基于VTS多年实际运行和数据并 经过系统的实际计算得出的，从而在国内首次提出了VTS运行效益实际计 算的范例。 6．在具体的效益产生原山方面 门）为把握重点，提高评估准确性，提出了分区域进行安全效益计算 的概念。 （二）在分析 VTS减少山于船舶搁浅导致其它船舶延误的问题时，不但 统计计算了当年的搁浅事故数，还计算了由于VTS功能发挥产生的当年搁 浅事故率比历史事故率下降而减少的延误。更多还原

【Abstract】 Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) is a service implemented by a Competent Authority, designed to improve safety and efficiency of vessel traffic and to protect the environment. The service should have the capability to interact with the traffic and respond to traffic situations developing in the VTS area.VTS has been developed for many years in China and brought on the improvements in efficiency, safety and the reduction of potential environment pollution. But there is absence of systemic evaluation for the validity of the services provided by VTS.This dissertation was completed according to the scientific study project of Ministry of Communications, which Study on National Port VTS Benefit Evaluation and Risk Assessment. The dissertation gave a more integrated cost-benefit evaluation model of VTS suits the situation of our country, then conducted risk assessment and cost-benefit evaluation study on Tianjin port zone and Tianjin VTS. The results of the study tallied with actual situation. The most study content of this paper was as follows.l.Made lots of surveys, statistics and analyses of traffic, safety and navigation environment of Tianjin port zone. Gave results of analyses and forecast of traffic quantities. These were the bases of benefit evaluation.2.According to the operation experience and data of Tianjin VTS, this dissertation gave a cost-benefit analysis model of VTS and found a universal analysis method suits the situation of our country by using of technology economics theory and engineering evaluation system method .3.This dissertation carried out the analysis of cash quantification on cost-benefit of Tianjin VTS and gave the result of evaluation. Then carried out a qualitative analysis to other parts.4. At the same time, assessed the risk of port zone with the method of fuzzy synthetic evaluation , SJ(Subjective Judgement) method and computer simulation based on the electronic chart. The evaluation and simulation results tally with the facts.5.Not only applied the evaluation method of VTS MANUAL of IALA, but also improved it and provided theory and calculation basis for domestic such research. For instance, VTS MANUAL only gave the frame and suggestion on operation benefit evaluation.6.About the reason for actual benefits(1) To grasp the kernel points, and promote the accuracy of the evaluation, the concept of calculating safety benefit by partitioning area is proposed.(2) At the analysis of the decrease of time delay because of grounding, not only accidents number that year, but also the decrease of the grounding accident rate that year, when VTS is in operation, relative to historical accidents rate, are calculated.更多还原