【作者】 亢霞；

【导师】 朱生玉；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 农业经济管理学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 玉米是我国我区传统的农作物之一，在市场经济条件下，玉米生产如何适应市场需求，是当前我国我区玉米市场研究中的重要课题。尤其是我国入世后，国外玉米给我区玉米带来巨大的冲击和挑战，研究玉米市场更为迫切。本文通过对影响玉米需求量的8个经济因素进行分析，运用定量分析方法，找出影响玉米需求量的最主要因素为畜牧业发展水平、食品加工业的发展水平、价格水平和供给能力，在此基础上建立模型，并对未来玉米需求量进行预测分析。目前，我国我区玉米市场供大于求，玉米市场价格高于同期国际玉米市场价格。而实现均衡有三种可能途径：一是扩大玉米的需求量；二是缩减玉米的供给；三是扩大需求与缩减供给相结合。前两种途径使玉米的市场价格仍维持在目前的价格水平上，宏观调控措施单一，是不太可能实现的，是一种不稳定的均衡；而第三种途径使玉米市场的价格略高于国际市场均衡价格，政府宏观调控空间增大，是可能实现的，也是一种较为稳定的均衡。最后，提出我区玉米产业在新形式下供需达到均衡的对策及建议：努力降低玉米生产成本，提高玉米质量，加快玉米的加工转化等等。更多还原

【Abstract】 The corn is one of the important crops in China and Inner Mongolia. How to makethe corn fit the market demand is one of important researches in the marketeconomy. Especially when our country join to WTO the corn coming from foreign isbringing the enormous impact and challenge to our own corn .In this paper the authoranalyzes eight economic factors which affect the corn demand and uses quantitativeanalysis methods finding out the main factors that affect the corn demand such asthe price leveU the development level of stock raising % the development level foodstuffprocess industry and supply. According to analysis the quantitative models are set upand forecasted the corn demand in the future. Now the supply of corn is higher than thedemand and the price of corn in the international market is \srtotf than in China andin Inner Mongolia. There are three ways to achieve the equilibrium. One is increasingthe corn demand another is decreasing supply and the other is combiningthe increase demand with decrease supply .The former ways lead to the price in higherlevel and the macro-control measures are invalidity . It is impossible to achieve and it isan unstable equilibrium. But the corn price is a little higher than the international cornprice by the third way. It is possible to achieve a stable equilibrium. At last theauthor puts forward countermeasures and advises which are how to achieve thecorn market equilibrium between demand and supply.更多还原