【作者】 王楠；

【导师】 李岳云；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 国际贸易， 2001， 硕士

【摘要】 玉米是世界上主要粮食品种之一。它不仅可做为口粮消费，也是畜牧业和加工业的重要原料。目前，世界玉米总产量已在世界粮食品种中居首位，贸易量也仅次于小麦而居第二位。玉米是我国三大粮食品种之一，我国是玉米生产和出口大国，玉米生产量约占全世界总产量的20％以上，次于美国居世界第二位，出口也居世界第四位。同时，我国又是畜牧业大国，玉米作为“饲料之王”对畜牧业来说地位至关重要。因此，玉米产业的发展，在我国的农业生产中占据着十分重要的地位。 通过对世界和我国玉米产业发展状况的分析可知，我国玉米生产及相关产业自80年代以来有了较大的发展，目前已经在世界上占据了重要的地位。但是，就我国玉米产业现状来说，仍然存在许多问题和矛盾。主要有：一、生产规模小，整体效益差。二、布局不合理，南北产销失衡。三、产大于销，出现阶段性过剩。四、品种质量不完全符合市场要求，出现结构性剩余。五、深加工转化能力依然不足。六、服务体系不完善，基础设施薄弱。 WTO是以推进全球贸易自由化的多边贸易组织，我国在加入WTO之后，必须按照WTO《农业协议》以及其他相关协议的规定，调整我国农业政策，使之符合WTO规则的要求。主要包括提高市场准入程度、减少对农产品的支持空间，取消出口补贴等。而通过对国内资源成本，社会净收益和有效保护率的测定，可以发现我国在玉米生产方面已不具有比较优势，加入WTO后，我国玉米产业在生产、价格、进出口以及流通格局等各个方面都将受到来自国外产品的巨大影响和冲击，现有的问题和矛盾很可能进一步激化。 本文在总结前面部分的基础上，结合影响玉米供给和需求的相关因素的变化趋势，对世界和我国玉米产业中长期发展做出预测和展望。预计今后十年内全球的玉米的生产和贸易量将有显著增长，但进出口国的结构会发生变化，表现出“进口国增多，出口国减少”的特点，而我国也将从玉米目前供大于求的局面转为供不应求，从玉米出口大国变为玉米进口大国。 针对以上分析，结合我国的实际情况，同时借鉴美国玉米产业发展的经验，本文作者提出了相应的对策建议。一是调整玉米收购保护价格，充分发挥价格机制的作用。二是减少玉米种植面积，优化种植结构。三是深化改革，搞活玉米流通。四是大力搞好深加工转化，扩大玉米需求。五是推进玉米产业化经营。六是改善农业基础设施建设，完善国家储备体系。七是合理设计农业—””“一’－多保护政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Corn is one of the major crops in the world. In addition to be the grain rations to consume, corn can also be used as important raw materials of husbandry and grain processing industry. Now, the annual yield of corn has already been the first place in the world grain products, and the world corn trade volume is only behind the wheat. China is the main country of corn production and export, at the same time, China is also an important country of animal husbandry. Accordingly, the corn industry possesses a very important place in national agricultural economy. Based on the analysis of present condition of corn industry in China and in other countries, we can learn that great achievement has been accomplished in corn production and related industries since 1980抯. At present, China抯 corn industry plays a more and more important role in the world. However, there are still many problems in the entire chain of the corn industry. 1, The production scale is small and the general proceeds are low. 2, The distribution of corn production region does not fully accords with that of consumption region. 3, The corn supply is beyond the demand, and the impermanent corn surplus has already happens. 4, The species and qualities of corn do not entirely meet the demand of the market. 5, Deeply processing capacity of corn in China is deficient. 6, Public and supporting service system is undeveloped and infrastructure is still weak. WTO is a multilateral organization aimed to promote free trade. After the entry into the WTO, China must regularize its agricultural policy to meet the WTO rules according to 揂GREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE?and other relevant agreements, including increase access to markets, decrease the domestic support to agriculture, and cancel the export subsidy, etc. While, the China抯 corn production does not has comparative advantage on the basis of DRC, NSP, and ERP measures. Consequently, production, price, import and export situation, circulation pattern and runny other aspects of corn industry in China will encounter great impacts from foreign countries. The existing problems may be more acute. Summing up the above parts, combined with the trend of relevant factors influencing the supply and demand of corn, forecasts and outlook of world corn industry development are made in the paper. It is predicted that the world production and trade volume of corn will increase significantly in the next 10 years, but the composition structure may change in the future, showing a new trait of 搈ore countries importing corns, less countries exporting corns.?China will also transfer from a net exporter to a net exporter. To solve such problems addressed above, according to China抯 practical condition, as well as referring to the experience of corn industry development in the US, policy recommendations have been made as follows: I .Adjusting the corn supporting price to make full use of price mechanism. 2.Decreasing corn planting areas and optimizing species structures. 3.Improving the reform in corn circulation system. 4.Promoting the development of corn processing industry. 5. Integrating the production, processing, and selling process of corn industry. 6.Improve the construction of infrastructure and national food reserve system. 7. Establishing rational agriculture supporting policies.更多还原