【作者】 石志民；

【导师】 胡彩虹； 王纪军；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 洪水灾害是一种发生概率高,范围广,破坏力强的自然灾害。洪水预报为科学地进行洪水调度和防汛抢险提供了决策支持。水文模型作为预报洪水的一个重要方法,一直是水文科学研究的重要分支。分布式流域水文模型不仅可以反映流域下垫面的空间分布,而且易于与气候气象数据进行耦合,至今一直是研究的热点和难点之一。本文在国家自然科学基金项目“流域水文过程对极端气候事件敏感性研究"(51079131)和中国气象局气候变化专项“河南省不同流域水文过程对极端降水事件的响应”(编号CCSF201312)支持下展开,论文构建适用于半干旱半湿润地区特点的松散型分布式水文模型,模型以蓄满-超渗产流方式、单位线及马斯京根法为理论基础,并以陆浑水库控制流域为例对模型进行了验证。在对流域内降雨和径流的时空分布特点及其洪水等级进行分析的基础上,对该流域的洪水风险管理提出了相关建议和措施。(1)利用ArcGIS软件对搜集到的陆浑水库控制流域的DEM数据进行了处理,提取出该流域的河网水系,将研究区域划分为13个子流域,并提取出了流域地形、土地利用、土壤和植被分布等流域特征。(2)考虑蓄满-超渗兼容的产流模式,以DEM为基础,构建适用于半干旱半湿润地区的松散耦合型分布式流域水文模型,并以陆浑水库控制流域为例,应用该模型对洪水过程进行了模拟,并与陆浑水库管理局的经验模型模拟结果进行了对比,结果表明,分布式模型模拟精度较高,而经验模型精度稍差,分布式模型模拟结果可以为水库的防洪调度提供指导依据,经验模型模拟结果可以作为参考。(3)对陆浑水库流域的降雨、径流空间分布及历史洪水特性进行了分析,并将洪水划分为五个等级,统计结果表明,东湾站洪峰为1609m3/s以上的洪水产生灾害的风险较大,1609m3／s以下的洪水产生灾害较小。流域内降雨中心在上游的大等级降雨场次较多,而下游的场次较少。并结合陆浑水库流域特征,对该流域的洪水风险管理进行分析,提出了相关建议和措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Flood disasters is a frequentily, widely and destructive natural disaster. Flood forecasting provides decision-making scientifically for flood regulation and control. Hydrological model as an important method of flood forecasting, has been an important branch of the hydrological science. Distributed hydrological model as an important hydrological model, not only can reflect the spatial distribution of the basin underlying surface, but also can be coupled with climate and meteorological data easily, and therefore it has been one of the hotspot issues.This research is founded on National Natural Science Foundation of China (51079131)"The sensibility research on the hydrologic processes to extreme weather events" and The China Meteorological Administration Special Climate Change "The response of the Hydrological processes to extreme precipitation events in henan province", in this paper. A distributed hydrological model is build, which is a loosely coupled distributed hydrological model for the semiarid subhumid features, based on the infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff mechanisms, unit lines and Muskingum method. The watershed of Luhun reservoir is taken as an example to validate the model. Statistics and analysis on every sub-basin outflow and precipitation has been carried on. The region flood level has been divided, some related suggestions and measures to flood risk management in the region are made.(1) The river network is extracted from DEM data using of ArcGIS software. The area is divided into13sub-basins based on characteristics of watershed topography, land use, soil and vegetation distribution.(2) A loosely coupled distributed-hydrological model, which is taken into account the infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff mode, is built base on the DEM. The model was applied in the watershed of Luhun reservoir, and compared with the empirical model simulation. The results show that the simulation accuracy of distributed-hydrological model is higher than that of the empirical model. Therefore, the simulation results of the distributed-hydrological model can provide guidance on the reservoir for flood control, and the empirical model simulation can be used as a reference.(3) Spatial distribution of rainfall, runoff and flood characteristics of the Luhun reservoir are analyzed, and the flood is divided into five levels. The results show that the flood peak, which is more than1609m3/s, has a big risk, but the flood peak, which is less than1609m3/s, has a little risk. The rainfall center in the upstream of the watershed happen frequently, the others is few. The flood risk management is analyzed, and a few proposals and measures are taken, which is taken into account the characteristics of Luhun reservoir basin.更多还原