【作者】 钟燃；

【导师】 朱军；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 防灾减灾工程及防护工程， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 大坝或其他挡水建筑物、挡水物体突然溃决,发生水体突泄所形成的洪水叫做溃决洪水。一旦溃决发生,将会在较短时间内对下游区域形成较强的冲击破坏,可能导致严重的生命财产损失,故采用溃决洪水演进模拟分析来进行风险评估就显得尤为重要。但现有研究大多考虑静态输入的单一流动进行模拟分析,难以处理动态交互环境下多复杂因素带来的影响。因此,本文拟结合元胞自动机和多智能体方法,采用虚拟地理环境研究框架,深入探索溃决时空模拟分析方法,构建溃决洪水演进过程时空分析模型,并开发虚拟地理环境原型系统,支持溃决发展和溃决洪水演进过程可视化模拟,进行溃决风险评估分析,并根据风险等级及下游区域的地理情况设立一定的泄洪区作为应急手段,这对于洪水的应急防护工作具有极大的应用价值。本文首先分析了传统元胞自动机的构成,分析了有关溃决洪水演进所需的相关数据,以及元胞状态转换规则的设计,并重点讨论了溃决元胞自动机数值模型在模拟溃决洪水演进过程中的不足；其次,引入多智能体系统,通过设计多因素的智能体结构,侧重模拟过程中的动态分析和交互控制,处理多种因素对溃决现象和时空变化过程模拟带来的影响；接着借助虚拟地理环境与实验地理学的新一代GIS研究框架,加强两者的集成,利用Visual Studio2005.NET、OpenSceneGraph和osgEarth构建原型实验系统,以直观、自然的三维虚拟地理环境模拟溃决洪水发展过程,并进行洪水演进效果分析,比较多种元胞尺度下的溃决模拟效率；最后,选择案例区域,在分析案例区域相关地形、人口分布、城镇等信息后,设计了多个泄洪区方案,结合ArcGIS空间分析功能,在虚拟地理环境系统开展演进模拟分析与损失评估试验,实现对不同泄洪区选址方案的比较分析,得到最佳泄洪区选址方案,从而为灾害风险评估与应急处置提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the dam or other water retaining structures, water retaining objects suddenly burst, the water inrush occurred by the formation of the flood discharge is usually called the dam-break flood. Dam-break flood may form strong impact damage to the downstream region in a relatively short period of time, which may lead to serious loss of life and property. So it is particularly important that simulation analysis is adopted to carry out risk assessment of dam-break. Because most of the existing studies consider a single static input flow in the construction of the simulation analysis model, it is difficult to deal with the impact of multi-complicating factor in dynamic interactive environment. Therefore, this paper integrated cellular automata and multi-agent system into the "Virtual Geographical Environment, which explore spatial simulation analysis method. Temporal and spatial analysis model of the dam-break flood routing was constructed, and a virtual geographic environment prototype system was developed to implement visual simulation and analysis of risk assessment of dam-break, which can be used to select an appropriate flood-diversion zone as emergency measures. These researches will have great application value for the emergency protection work.This paper firstly analyzed the composition of traditional cellular automata and the data which effect the routing of dam-break floods, designed the transformational rule of the cellular state, then analyzed the scale effect, and focused on the deficiency of the outburst flood evolution based on the cellular automata. Secondly, the multi-agent systems were introduced into the numerical model of the dam-break flood routing. Multi-factors in the dynamic and interactive environment were considered to design these agents’structures. The temporal and spatial analysis model of Dam-break based on cellular automata and multi agent system was used to deal with the effects of dynamic and complicated simulation process. Then the virtual geographic environment of the new generation GIS research framework was used to implement the in integration of the two. Using Visual Studio2005.NET, OpenSceneGraph and osgEarth, a prototype experimental system was developed to support the simulation and analysis of dam-break risk assessment in a interactive virtual environment, the scale effect of the cellular automata model was also discussed in detail. Finally, a case area was selected, and its regional terrain, geographical distribution of population and urban information were analyzed. Several flood-diversion zones were designed. By means of ArcGIS spatial analysis function, simulation analysis and damage assessment experiments were conducted in our prototype system. After comparative analysis of different flood-diversion zone plans were provided, a best scheme can be given to be as a scientific basis for risk assessment and emergency response of dam-break.更多还原