【作者】 张应龙；

【导师】 谢永生；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 我国的粮食生产格局及其粮食安全问题，长期以来是人们关注的重大问题。众所周知，限于我国地理环境和生物气候特点，传统的粮食生产格局是“南粮北调”，但近年来，随着我国市场经济的不断发展和完善，延续千年的粮食生产格局悄然从“南粮北调”转变成了“北粮南运”。这种转变的根本原因是什么？对我国粮食安全将带来什么影响？国家的应对策略是什么？等等这一系列问题，需要开展深入的研究。本研究从粮食生产成本入手，提出粮食生产的完全成本除包括直接生产成本外，还应包括粮食生产的资源环境成本。长期以来，人们习惯于计算粮食的直接生产成本，而往往忽略粮食生产过程中造成的资源环境经济损失，粮食生产造成的资源耗减和环境降级得不到补偿。将资源环境经济损失纳入粮食生产成本的核算体系，开展农业生产的绿色核算，有利于正确评价农业生产的生态经济效益，对保障区域粮食安全实现区域持续发展，合理配置粮食生产格局，以及制定相关农业和经济政策具有重要的理论指导意义。本论文在系统分析和调研总结中国不同类型区粮食生产的资源环境影响基础上，依据资源环境经济学、生态学、可持续发展等相关理论，建立了较为完善和科学的粮食生产资源环境成本评估指标体系，并采用直接市场法、替代市场法、假想市场法中的相关评估技术构建了核算模型。本研究选取了跨越中国南中北地区的5个典型类型区（东北平原区的黑龙江省五常市、西北黄土高原沟壑区的陕西省长武县、黄淮海平原区的河北省曲周县、两湖平原区的湖南省岳阳县以及南方红壤丘陵区的湖南省祁阳县）为研究对象，应用构建的粮食生产资源环境成本评估模型，结合5个研究区2008年的相关统计数据和农户调查数据，对各研究区粮食生产的资源环境成本、直接生产成本、完全成本以及不完全成本进行了分析，得出以下结论：（1）当前中国粮食生产造成的生态破坏和环境污染普遍存在且已经相当严重，北方旱作农业区农田水土流失造成的生态破坏成本较大，南方稻田的温室气体排放成本占较大比例，粮食生产的外部资源环境代价不能忽视。研究结果表明，2008年五常市、长武县、曲周县、岳阳县、祁阳县五个地区的粮食生产资源环境成本分别达到23.60、0.75、2.00、1.48、3.13亿元，分别占其地区农业总产值的28.60%、17.76%、13.70%、3.16%、15.00%。（2）中国南北方不同类型区之间粮食生产的资源环境成本差异较为显著，北方地区粮食的资源环境成本普遍高于南方。其中长武县最大，粮食的资源环境成本高达3.00元·kg^-1，五常市次之，为2.50元·kg^-1，其次是祁阳县、曲周县、岳阳县三个研究区，分别为1.88元·kg^-1、1.42元·kg^-1、1.00元·kg^-1。以此推算，当前中国粮食生产的资源环境成本维持在1.00³.00元·kg^-1，平均达到2.00元·kg^-1。从生态—经济—社会可持续发展的角度出发，不难看出，南方地区比北方更具有粮食生产的资源环境优势，全国粮食的生产布局应该更多地从这方面来考虑。（3）各研究区粮食生产的直接投入成本都比较高，劳动力支出费用、化肥费用、机械费用是其中的主要部分，高成本低收益的状况对农民种粮的积极性有很大的影响。研究表明，祁阳县和岳阳县水稻种植的直接生产成本较大，分别达到2.61和2.60元·kg^-1；五常市最小，只有1.01元·kg^-1，长武县和曲周县两个区域的直接生产成本相差不是很大，分别为1.55和1.21元·kg^-1。（4）各研究区粮食生产的完全成本都高于其粮食价格，呈负收益，重要原因之一是透支了资源与环境成本。长武县粮食的完全成本最高，达到4.55元·kg^-1，其次是祁阳县4.49元·kg^-1，岳阳县、五常市、曲周县依次为3.60、3.51、2.63元·kg^-1，而各研究区2008年粮食的平均市场价格分别只有1.83、1.87、1.50、1.60、1.50元·kg^-1。若不考虑各区域粮食生产劳动力成本的差异，研究得出长武县粮食的不完全成本最高(3.99元·kg^-1)，五常市次之(3.04元·kg^-1)，祁阳县、曲周县和岳阳县三个研究区域分别为2.62、2.27和1.93元·kg^-1。这反映了区域间劳动力成本的较大差异，导致南北方地区种粮收入差距加大，出现“北粮南运”，背离了种粮的自然适宜性。（5）不同类型区粮食生产成本的综合分析表明，继续维持当前粮食生产格局将会加大南北差距，加重北方负担，国家应进行相关调控。从生态经济和可持续发展的角度来考虑，应该在中国南方地区适当扩大粮食的生产规模，而在北方地区适当减小粮食的生产规模，做到各产业合理布局，维持南北方地区生态和经济发展的平衡，保证区域的粮食安全，实现整个社会的和谐稳定发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 For a long time, the grain production pattern and food security have caught people’swide attention in China. It is well known that because of the limitation of the geographicalenvironment and biological climate in our country, the traditional grian production pattern is”Diverting grain from South to North”. But, along with the development of market economy inChian, the grain production pattern changed form” Diverting grain from South to North” to”Diverting grain from North to South”. What’s reason caused the change? What’s influencewill bring to us on the food security? What’s trategies will be taken to deal with thoseproblems? All of thoes need further research. The agriculture is the foundation of nationaleconomy and social development, and the grain production is the core of the development ofagriculture. China is a big agricultural country and also a country with large population. Withthe rapid development of the modern agriculture and the increasing of domestic population,more pressure on agricultural resources and ecological environment, and the unsustainabledevelopment model of resource-environmental inputs barters for agricultural profit hasappeared which have brought serious influence on the sustainable development of socialeconomy. This paper proposed that the complete cost of grain production should includedirect costs and resource-environmental cost of grain production. For a long time the directcosts of grain production have been calculated while the resource-environmental economicloss was ignored, and there were no compensation for the cost due to the resources depletionand environmental degradation caused by grain production. Bring theResource-environmental economic loss into grain production costs accounting system, andopen the activity in green accounting for agricultural production, it’s beneficial to correctlyevaluate the ecological and economic benefit of agricultural production, and this study havesome reference value to formulate related agricultural and economic policies, adjust grainproduction distribution for relevant departments, ensure the regional grain security, promoteregional sustainable development further.After systematic analysis and investigation on Resource-environmental impacts of grainproduction in different area of China, this paper established mature and scientific Resource-environmental cost evaluation index system of grain production based on theResource-environmental economics, ecology and sustainable development theories. Andfinally, the Resource-environmental costs accounting model of grain production wereconstructed by using direct market method, surrogate market approach and hypotheticalmarket approach et al. This paper chose five different types of regions in southern, middle,and northern part of China: Wuchang county in Heilongjiang province, Changwu County inShaanxi province, Quzhou County in Hebei province, Yueyang county and Qiyang county inHunan province, basing on related statistical data and households investigation data in2008,with the application of resource-environmental costs evaluation model, theResource-environmental costs, direct costs, total costs and incomplete cost of grainproduction were separately analyzed, and we had detailed conclusions as follows:（1） The ecological destruction and environmental pollution caused by grain production inChina is very general and serious at present. There are large ecological damage cost caused bysoil and water loss of farmland in north dry farming regions, and large greenhouse gasemission cost in south paddy field, the external Resource-environmental cost of grainproduction can not be ignored. The results showed that the cost of Resource-environmentaldamage due to grain production in Wuchang, Changwu, Quzhou, Yueyang, Qiyangrespectively were2.360,0.075,0.200,0.148,0.313billion yuan, which was respectivelyequivalent to28.60%,17.76%,13.70%,3.16%,15.00%of the agricultural output in2008.（2） There were significant differences in Resource-environmental cost of grainproduction in different types of areas. The Resource-environment cost of grain in the northernregion is higher than in the south. The Resource-environmental cost of grain production ineach area respectively were3.00Yuan·kg^-1in Changwu county,2.50Yuan·kg^-1in Wuchangcounty,1.88Yuan·kg^-1in Qiyang county,1.42Yuan·kg^-1in Quzhou county,1.00Yuan·kg^-1inYueyang county, and it can be calculated that, the Resource-environmental cost of grainproduction in China maintained at1.00³.00Yuan·kg^-1, and the average value is2.00Yuan·kg^-1. From the perspective of sustainable development, it is not difficult to recognizethat, there are more resources environmental advantages of grain production in southernregion than the north, and the national grain production layout should do more to considerfrom this.（3） The direct crop production costs in the five study areas were all high, and the laborcosts, chemical fertilizer cost, mechanical cost were three main aspects. The present high costand low profit situation has great influence on the farmers’ enthusiasm of grain production.The results showed that direct crop production costs in Changwu county reached themaximum value,2.61Yuan·kg^-1, and the cost in Wuchang county got the minimum value, 1.01Yuan·kg^-1. The direct costs of grain production in other three areas were2.60Yuan·kg^-1inYueyang county, and1.55Yuan·kg^-1in Changwu county, and1.21Yuan·kg^-1in Quzhoucounty in2008.（4） The total costs of grain production in Changwu county were the highest, reached4.55Yuan·kg^-1, secondly it was in Qiyang county, reached4.49Yuan·kg^-1, and the next were in theYueyang county, Wuchang county, and the Quzhou county, it respectively reached3.60,3.51,2.63Yuan·kg^-1, However, the unit sales in different types regions were only1.83,1.87,1.50,1.60,1.50Yuan·kg^-1for each. The total costs of grain production were greater than the grainprice, one of the important reasons is that, the resource and environmental costs wereoverdrawn. If we ignored the bigger difference of labor costs in grain production, theincomplete cost of grain production in the five areas respectively were3.99,3.04,2.62,2.271.93Yuan·kg^-1. Because of the bigger difference of labor cost, the income gap of grainproduction between southern and northern region increased, and the situation of sendinggrains from the north to the south appeared, it is against the natural suitability of grainproduction.（5） The comprehensive analysis of the cost of grain production in different types of ereashowed that, the current food production distribution will increase the gap between thenorthern and southern region, and increase the burden of the northern area, while bringingresources and environmental degradation. From the view of ecological economy andsustainable development, we should appropriately expand the grain production scale in thesouthern China, and reduced grain production in the northern. Make sure the industry layoutis reasonable, maintain the balance of ecological and economic development in both southernand northern China, ensure the regional food security, and promote the harmonious and stabledevelopment of Chinese socialism.更多还原