【作者】 谭亚昆；

【导师】 张兴平；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 全球变暖已经成为世界主要的环境问题之一,其主要归因于温室气体的排放。因此,寻找二氧化碳减排途径,分析影响二氧化碳排放变化的内在驱动因素成为近年来研究重点。本文首先利用距离函数和数据包络分析法建立考虑环境影响的DEA模型,并测度投入要素、期望产出和非期望产出要素的相对效率,利用Malmquist指数将效率的变化分解为技术效率变化和技术水平变化。在考虑投入和产出要素的技术效率和技术水平的基础上,建立碳排放的因素分解模型。该模型将驱动碳排放变化的因素分解为9个方面：潜在的碳因素变化、潜在的能源强度变化、潜在的GDP变化以及能源、碳排放和生产技术效率变化以及能源、碳排放和生产技术进步,可以量化不同因素对碳排放变化的贡献。其突出的优点是可以分析不同投入和产出要素的技术效率和技术水平对碳排放的影响机制。然后,对20个发展中国家1995-2005的碳排放变化的驱动因素进行了实证分析,结果表明：对于20个发展中国家整体来说,1995-2005年,经济发展是促进二氧化碳排放增长的最重要因素,而生产技术进步是二氧化碳减排的最主要驱动因素。同时,该实证结果可以分析每个国家的碳排放变化驱动因素,本文重点分析了中国二氧化碳排放时空演变机制。结果表明：从促进碳排放增加的因素来看,经济增长是增加二氧化碳排放的最主要因素；低碳技术的开发与储备不足,中国的减排技术进步相对缓慢；能源利用效率先增长后降低,对二氧化碳排放增加年均贡献1.29%；碳因素变化、节能技术以及生产技术逐渐好转,后期贡献了二氧化碳排放的降低。从降低碳排放的因素来看,能源强度的降低是最主要的碳减排驱动因素；碳排放技术效率与生产技术效率的提高,对降低二氧化碳排放分别贡献了2.83%和3.39%。最后,根据实证分析结果,本文分别从能源低碳化、生产低碳化、减碳的制度创新三个方面制定节能减排策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions has become one of the major environmental problems. So, looking for decomposition model of CO2emissions and developing low-carbon economy have become a key issue.The efficiency change of inputs/outputs, which can be decomposed into technical efficiency change and technical change, was measured by using distance function and data envelopment analysis. An approach to decompose the change of aggregate CO2emission over time was proposed by taking technical efficiency change and technical change into account. The proposed model decomposes the CO2emission change into nine components specified in this paper, and several production technology related components are included. The key feature of the proposed approach is the introduction of inputs/outputs factor efficiencies, specified as distance functions, to the decomposition model.The paper was applied in decomposing the CO2emission for20developing countries during the periods of1995-2005. Empirical results indicate that:For the20developing counties as a whole, in1995-2005, the economic growth is the most important contributor to CO2emissions increase, while good output technical change is the most important component to CO2emissions reduction between1995and2005.The empirical results also provide extensive insights into the components driving the CO2emissions for single country between1995and2005.The economic growth is the most important contributor to CO2emissions increase; Energy efficiency contribute1.29%to CO2emissions reduction; Carbon factors change, energy saving technology and production technology gradually improve, and later contribute to CO2emissions reduction. The reduction of energy intensity is the most important component to CO2emissions reduction between1995and2005.The enhancement of carbon emissions technology efficiency and production technology efficiency contributed2.83%and3.39%to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, respectively.The empirical results are useful for setting policies of energy saving and emission reduction.更多还原