【作者】 宋莹莹；

【导师】 曲建忠；

【作者基本信息】 山东理工大学 ， 世界经济， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 中国是碳排放大国,也是出口大国,为了厘清中国货物出口贸易与碳排放之间的关系,本文利用扣除了进口中间投入品的投入产出模型,计算出2006-2009年中国出口贸易中的隐含碳排放及占当年中国碳排放总量的比重,并进行行业结构和区域结构分析。同时在投入产出模型的基础上,利用对数平均迪氏指数法对中国出口贸易隐含碳排放的影响因素进行结构分解分析,将其分为强度效应、结构效应和规模效应。研究结果表明：2006-2009年中国出口贸易隐含碳排放呈下降趋势,但在碳排放总量中仍占有较高比重,平均占比约为22.10%；机器、机械器具、电气设备及其零件、录音机及放声机、电视图像业,纺织、服装和皮革业等出口贸易隐含碳排放较高,这与出口额以及碳排放强度高度相关；中国对发达经济体的出口贸易隐含碳排放高于发展中经济体,这与中国参与国际产业分工的模式有关；在影响碳排放的因素中,强度效应贡献率为112.33%,说明中国各行业碳排放强度的下降是碳排放减少的主要原因,其次是规模效应,原因是,出口额的扩大会增加碳排放,但由于强度效应和结构效应的影响,使得最终的碳排放减少,因此贡献率为负值,为-16.47%,最后是结构效应,贡献率为4.14%,说明出口结构的优化有利于减少碳排放。中国应改善出口贸易商品结构,如加快推进产业升级、提高出口贸易碳壁垒、限制碳排放强度高的外商投资项目进入中国；降低主要出口行业(产品)的隐含碳排放,如降低行业完全碳排放强度、进一步优化产品结构；强化出口市场多元化；将部分高能耗、高污染和低技术的低端产业或加工程序转移到国外,实行境外加工贸易。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is the primary emitter of CO2, and also the biggest exporter in the world. In order to clarify the relationship between China’s export trade of goods and carbon emissions, the paper estimates the embodied carbon emissions of China’s exports and the ratio of it to the total carbon emissions during2006-2009based on the input-output model deducting the imported intermediate inputs, and analyzes the industrial and regional structure respectively. Based on the input-output model and logarithmic mean divisia index, the paper uses structure decomposition analysis to study the impacting factors of China’s carbon emissions embodied in exports. They are decomposed into three parts:intensity effect, structure effect and scale effect.It reveals that the embodied carbon emissions of China’s exports declined, but it still accounted for a high proportion of total carbon emissions. Industry of machinery, mechanical appliances, electrical equipment and parts thereof, sound recorders, reproducers, and television image exported the maximum embodied carbon emissions, followed by industry of textile, leather and footwear, which was highly correlated with the export value and carbon intensity. The embodied carbon emissions exported to the developed economies were larger than the developing economies, which was bound up with China’s participation in the international industrial division of labor. The contribution rate of the intensity effect was112.33%, showing that the decline of industries’ carbon intensity was the main reason for the decreased carbon emissions. The scale effect was the second reason, whose contribution rate was-16.47%. The increasing exports added to the carbon emissions, however, the intensity and structure effect decreased the final carbon emissions, so the contribution rate was negative. The structure effect came last, whose contribution rate was4.14%, indicating that the optimized export structure reduced the carbon emissions.First, China should improve the structure of exported commodities, such as accelerating industrial upgrading, setting up higher carbon barriers of export trade and restricting the access of the carbon-intensive foreign investment projects to China. Second, China ought to reduce the embodied carbon emissions of the main export industries (products), for instance, reducing the complete carbon emission intensity of industries and further optimizing the product structure. Third, China is supposed to strengthen the diversification of export markets. Last, China should encourage overseas processing trade, transferring the high energy consumption, high pollution and low-skilled low-end industries or processes abroad.更多还原