基于实物期权的文化创意行业投资决策分析

【作者】 盛兆奇；

【导师】 盛庆辉；

【作者基本信息】 中央民族大学 ， 工商管理， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 文化创意行业近年来发展迅猛,目前已经在世界各国经济发展中占据重要的位置。随着行业市场的不断增长,如今这个高投资回报的领域开始吸引资本市场目光。然而,文化创意行业由于本身产品在市场中价值的不确定性,使得行业投资风险偏高。传统的价值评估方法虽然能够评估现有的资产价值,但对文化创意产品这种未来价值增长不确定的投资却很难进行评估。实物期权价值评估方法恰恰解决了这个问题,实物期权价值评估方法能够对投资项目中具有不确定性的价值增长提供具体的量化模型,相对准确地评估出未来的增长价值。目前运用此方法在文化创意行业进行投资分析的研究还比较少,本文以科学严谨的研究方法进行深入分析论证,并通过实际企业案例体现出研究的意义。第一章,首先介绍了国内外文化创意行业的发展,并解释了资本市场与文化创意行业结合的重要性。随后给出了要研究的问题和本文的总体框架。第二章,分别从文化创意、文化创意行业、实物期权、文化创业行业投资价值评估四个研究领域对国内外的研究进行了文献综述,评价了现有的研究成果。第三章,深入分析了文化创意行业的特征,并通过文化创意产品本身的特征差异,价值、价值链增值,以及投入资本的循环等方面分析了文化创意行业的价值内涵,本章是对后而进行具体论证的重要依据。第四章，首先介绍了传统评估方法,随后对实物期权在不同运用实践阶段表现出的不同种类进行了定义和分析,并且与传统的价值评估方法进行了比较,分析出了实物期权在文化创意企业投资评价上的优势。第五章,通过第三章的文化创意行业价值内涵分析结果,运用实物期权方法对文化创意产品构建出B-S框架模型,确定模型中具体参数。第六章,最后结合具体的企业案例来进一步加强论证实物期权评估方法在文化创意行业上投资决策的有效性。实物期权商业研究目前是比较热门的研究方向,笔者通过本文的研究诠释了文化创意行业的内在价值,帮助投资人在市场中发现投资机会和规避投资风险。同时，本文系统的研究了文化创意企业价值内涵的独特之处,用定量的价值评估方法对定性的文化创意行业进行了评估。希望能为今后的文化创意行业的资本市场发展做出贡献。更多还原

【Abstract】 As creative industry has developed rapidly nowadays, it has already become the pillar of developing economy in every country on the earth. Creative industry which has high returns is getting much more attention from the capital market. However with the uncertain market value, it brings high risk on investment. Although the common evaluation methods can be used to evaluate existing assets, for creative products it is hardly be evaluated through common methods because the values of relative products often grow irregularly. Real option could provide quantitative method and make relatively precise evaluation on growth in future. So far, there aren’t much research on analyzing investment on creative industry through real option method. In the paper we are trying to make substantial analysis by using logically academic method, and demonstrated with real business case which brings pragmatic meanings to our research.Chapter One, firstly it introduces the researching background and aims, then it make definition related to the researching content, while presents the mainframe for the paper.Chapter Two, from four researching areas of which are creative, creative industry, real option, investment evaluation on creative industry, it makes review of history literature. Chapter Three, it analyses the characteristics of creative industry, from perspective of which are characteristic difference, value-adding of value and value-chain, cycle of invested money, it has analyses core-value in creative industry, providing important researching stuffs for next chapter.Chapter Four, firstly it introduces traditional evaluation methods, follows by the definition and analysis of real option on different phases. Meanwhile it makes comparison between method of real option and method of traditional evaluation.Chapter Five, with the analyzing result of value-core in creative industry it builds model about value of creative industry.Chapter Six, at last a real business case is given out to make enforcement of the effect of this research. In the meantime, the paper gives study of the characteristics of value in a systematical way. Quantitative evaluation method is given out to evaluating creative industry. In humble manner, I sincerely hope this paper can make contribution to the development of capital market of creative industry.更多还原