【作者】 王猛；

【导师】 梁国华；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 洪水灾害已经成为制约我国经济发展的重要因素之一,给人们的生产生活带来了严重的威胁。洪水预报是解决防洪减灾问题的重要非工程措施。石佛寺水库是辽河干流上唯一的防洪控制工程。石佛寺水库建成时间不长,目前尚无可以指导水库防洪调度的洪水预报方案,且流域上游支流已建成多座大型水利工程导致洪水预报十分复杂。因此,开展石佛寺水库以上流域的洪水预报方案研究极其迫切。针对这一问题,本文以石佛寺水库流域为研究对象,研究了适合石佛寺流域特点的洪水预报方法,建立了符合石佛寺入库洪水变化规律的实时洪水校正模型,并设计开发了相应的洪水预报模型参数率定系统,为辽河流域防洪调度提供决策支持。本文的主要研究内容和成果如下：(1)分析石佛寺流域的水文特性和下垫面条件,选择大伙房模型作为石佛寺水库的洪水预报模型；根据石佛寺流域特点,将石佛寺流域划分为4个子单元,建立石佛寺水库洪水预报方案,并使用粒子群算法与人工试错法相结合对模型参数进行优选。(2)针对一组模型参数可能无法反映所有洪水特点的情况,以松树子单元作为研究对象,利用模糊聚类ISODATA模型对历史洪水进行聚类,并采用基于综合信息的模糊推理方法对洪水类型进行在线识别,将两种方法相结合进行实时洪水分类预报研究。(3)针对洪水预报中普遍存在的系统误差和石佛寺水库洪水预报过程误差,建立了基于知识和经验的洪水预报校正模型。模型首先采用回归分析法对错时段演进的洪水过程进行坦化修正和用抛物线法修正洪峰；并与自回归最小二乘实时校正方法相结合,实时校正洪水预报过程,以提高预报洪水过程与实际洪水过程的拟合程度。(4)在B/S构架下,采用JSP、Java、数据库等技术,设计开发了石佛寺水库洪水预报参数率定系统,可以方便的进行模型参数优选与历史洪水模拟,所开发的系统也可应用到类似的预报模型参数率定中。更多还原

【Abstract】 The flood disaster is one of the most important factors that restrict the development of economy in our country, which brings serious threat to our life and production. Flood forecasting is an important non-engineering measure that can solve the problem of flood control and disaster reduction. The time that Shifosi reservoir was built is not long, so there is no flood forecasting scheme to guide flood operations. There are hydraulic engineerings in upstream of Shifosi basin, therefore, it’s urgent to study the flood forecasting scheme. So, this paper takes Shifosi basin as the research object to make the flood forecasting scheme and establish the real-time correction model. Then parameters optimization system of flood forecasting model is also proposed. These will provide great help in flood safety of Liao River. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) The DHF model is chosen for flood forecasting of Shifosi reservoir based on the analysis of hydrological characteristics and land surface condition in Shifosi basin. The basin is divided into four sub-elements according to the characteristics in order to establish the flood forecasting scheme for Shifosi reservoir. The parameters are optimized with PSO and manual calibration.(2) Because a set of parameters can’t reflect all kinds of floods, the paper classifies all historical floods using ISODATA model taken sub-element of Songshu as the research object. Fuzzy Reasoning Method based.on comprehensive information is used to identify floods on-line. The ISODATA model and Fuzzy Reasoning Method are combined to study the real-time flood classification forecast.(3) This paper establishes the flood forecasting correction model based on knowledge and experience to correct the system error and flood hydrograph error of Shifosi reservoir. The regression analysis method is used to correct the attenuation action and the parabola method is used to eliminate the artificial flood peak phenomenon. Then, the correction model and autoregressive least square method are combined to correct the real-time flood hydrograph, which can improve the fitting degree of actual flood and simulated flood greatly.(4) Based on B/S Frame, this paper designs and develops the flood forecasting model parameters optimization system with JSP, Java language and SQLServer2000database. This system can optimize model parameters and simulate historical flood, which also could be used in the similar flood forecasting parameters optimization.更多还原