鲁南经济带县域经济空间差异研究

【作者】 谢菲菲；

【导师】 代合治；

【作者基本信息】 曲阜师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 区域经济差异研究一直是区域经济协调发展政策关注的焦点，自1978年的经济改革以来，我国经济迅速增长，贫困大幅度减少，但不平等现象日益加剧，若任其发展下去，会成为未来经济增长的阻碍。县域至今仍是我国绝大多数人口赖以生存和发展的承载地域，县域经济占有极其重要的地位，是国民经济的基础和基本单元。因此，对我国县域经济差异进行客观透彻的分析，挖掘其深层的形成原因，找出相应对策，从而缩小县域经济差异，促进县域经济持续、快速、健康发展，是一个迫切有待解决的现实性问题。本论文在总结国内外学者和专家的研究成果基础上，采用定性与定量相结合的分析方法，对2000—2010年间鲁南经济带县域经济空间差异作了深入研究，揭示了鲁南经济带县域经济差异的总体特征、空间关联类型并作了警戒水平分析，在此基础上，分析了鲁南经济带县域经济空间差异的影响因素，并提出了促进县域经济协调发展对策。主要结论有：（1）鲁南经济带县域经济的总体差异呈扩大趋势，县域经济集聚性呈减弱趋势；区内总体差异程度增大，但市域间差异缩小与市域内差异扩大并存；高水平县域呈“一带两峰”格局，低水平县域广布其间；高增长型县域和低增长型县域均集中分布；县域的产业结构有一定程度调整，但尚未优化。（2）通过空间自相关分析将鲁南经济带县域划分为扩散型、传染型、极化型和塌陷型四种类型。对2010年各类型县域的空间分布变化及现状进行分析，其中，鲁南经济带的中部地区成为扩散型县域的显著性集聚区，也是鲁南经济带未来发展的核心增长极；传染型县主要集中在鲁南经济带的西部，形成低水平传染型县域的显著性集聚区。（3）基于2000-2010年的数据，通过预警模型的建立与分析可知，日照市和临沂市的人均GDP标准差分别在2006年和2009年超过了警戒水平，枣庄市和济宁市在2005年超过了警戒水平，菏泽市目前没有超过警戒水平。（4）鲁南经济带县域经济差异是自然资源与区位条件，投资、消费和出口，对外开放程度和产业结构差异等多因素综合作用的结果，加强和完善基础设施建设，加快县域产业结构转化和升级，实施人力资本战略，加大对落后县域投资等对缩小鲁南经济带县域经济差异，促进县域经济协调发展具有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional economic disparity has always been a focal point of coordinated regionaleconomic development policy.Since the1978economic reforms, the economic growth ofChina has been rapid and the poverty has been in substantial reduction, but of growinginequality phenomenon,if unchecked, it will become the obstacles in the future economicgrowth.The county is still the survival and development region of the vast majority of ourpopulation.County economy occupies an extremely important position,which is thefoundation and the basic unit of the national economy. Therefore,objective and thoroughanalysis of the economic differences among counties in China,taping the underlyingreasons for the formation,identifying appropriate countermeasures,and thereby reducing theeconomic differences among counties,promoting the county economy sustained, rapid andhealthy development is an reality urgent need to be resolved.Based on the summary of domestic and foreign scholars and experts researchresults,this paper used a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods,making an in-depth study of spatial differences of the2000-2010in Lunan economic zone,revealing the overall features of the county economic differences,the spatial associationtype and making the alert level analysis. On this basis, the paper also analyzed theinfluencing factors of the Lunan economic zone spatial differences, and proposed thedevelopment of countermeasures to improve county economic coordination.The mainconclusions as follows:(1)The overall differences of the county economy is in tendency to expand and thegathering of the county economy is inweakening trend in Lunan economy zone.The overalldifferences in the region increases,and the narrowing gap between the municipal area isco-exist with differences expanding in within the city.High-level counties show the patternof "one belt and two peaks", in which low-level counties widely distributed. High-growthcounties and low-growth counties are concentrated. The industrial structure of the countyhas a certain degree of adjustment, but not yet optimized.(2)Lunan economy with the county is divided into diffusion pattern, polarizationpattern, collapse pattern and transmission pattern through exploring spatial data analysis.The paper analyzed the distribution of various types of county space changes and thecurrent situation in2010.The central region of Lunan economic zone become to asignificant gathering area for diffusion county, which will also be the core growth pole inthe future development of he Lunan economy zone. Transmission pattern counties aremainly concentrated in the western part of the Lunan economic zone, forming the significant gathering area of the low-level transmission county.(3)Based on2000-2010data, the early warning model analysis shows that per capitaGDP standard deviations of Rizhao and Linyi City exceeded the alert level in2006and2009separately,Zaozhuang and Jining City exceeded the alert level in2005and Heze Citycurrently does not exceed the alert level.(4)Economic differences in Lunan economy zone among counties is the results ofmultiple factors,such as, natural resources and geographic conditions, investment,consumption and exports, openness, and industrial structure differences.Strengthen andimprove the infrastructure, accelerate the transformation and upgrade of the county ofindustrial structure, implementation of human capital strategy,increase investment inbackward county are of great significance on narrowing the the Lunan economicdifferences among counties and promoting the coordinated development of countyeconomy.更多还原