【作者】 马婷婷；

【导师】 蒋勇；

【作者基本信息】 南京信息工程大学 ， 应用数学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 本文基于序列分析与多因素分析分别研究奥运会单项运动成绩与奖牌榜的预测模型,将统计分析方法引入到模型中,并结合组合模型与多元非线性模型以及基于核函数的非线性变换模型来对奥运会进行成绩预测。首先根据序列分析的移动平均、指数平滑以及在此基础上与模糊学相结合的灰色预测模型对奥运运动成绩进行分析研究,结果表明各模型对不同的奥运项目的预测精准度各不相同。对单一运动项目如果就以此来选择单个预测模型进行预测,则其它模型预测过程中提供的有用信息就被忽略掉了。因此,作者综合考虑了以上单项预测方法的特点,并将它们分别以线性与非线性组合的方式结合进行成绩预测,将组合模型首次应用于奥运会的冠军成绩预测中,取得了很好的效果。并用其预测2012年奥运会运动成绩。此外,每届奥运会的奖牌榜一直是全世界关注的焦点。由于各国奖牌数受到众多因素影响,本文通过对多种影响因素的分析研究,得到根据经济相关的12个经济因素指标来建立与奖牌数之间的线性多元回归模型,并用其预测2012年奥运奖牌数。考虑到线性多元回归模型的局限性,以及现实因素的多重影响,在充分考虑指标意义的前提下,作者尝试建立指标与奖牌数的非线性模型,效果显著。鉴于非线性问题通常转化为线性问题解决的考虑,作者还引入基于核函数变换的非线性结构模型,并结合偏最小二乘估计参数的方法,首次用于奥运奖牌成绩的预测。综合研究并分析了以上三种方法,给出了2012年奖牌预测成绩,以期为奥运会提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, the author analyzes the predicting models of the single sports scores and the Medals of Olympic Games, which based on the sequence analysis and factors analysis. And the author brings the statistical analysis methods of combination model, multi-dimensional misalignment model and nonlinear transformation model based on nuclear function into the prediction.First, the author studys the models of moving average, exponential smoothing and grey prediction which based on sequence analysis and the results show that the accuracy of each sports game to different single forecasting method. If we just choose one to forecast, the useful information provided by other models will be losted. So the author tryes to combine all the models by linear and nonlinear to forecast the sports scores of Olympic Games of2012.In addition, the medals of Olympic Games are concerned by all people. The author gets12economic factors which influence the number of medals to establish the linear multivariate regression model. Considering the limitation of the linear multivariate regression model, the author also establishes the nonlinear model to describe the12factors and the number of medals. Because nonlinear problems are solved by transform into linear problems. The author introduces the nonlinear model based on transfonnation by nuclear function and combines with partial least squares estimate to forecast the number of medals of2012Olympic Games.更多还原