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应对通货膨胀的财政政策选择

Fiscal Policy Options to Deal with Inflation

【作者】 张楚

【导师】 潘石;

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 , 财政学, 2012, 硕士

【摘要】 在国际金融危机爆发前,伴随着经济的高速增长,通货膨胀就已经存在,在后金融危机时代,通货膨胀愈演愈烈,全球频发的自然灾害,欧洲主权债务危机,发达国家主要经济体量化宽松的货币政策,国际大宗商品价格的不断上涨,都在为通货膨胀打了推动剂,在货币政策频繁出击的情况下,CPI同比增长率依然持续上涨,从2011年4月份的5.3%一直上涨到7月份的6.5%,创下历史新高。作为国家两大宏观调控政策之一的财政政策,应该积极的配合货币政策,主动出击,弥补货币政策的不足之处。本文在引出财政政策与通货膨胀的相关理论的基础上,分析了当前通货膨胀形成的原因,笔者认为当前通货膨胀的形成是多方面的原因,有需求拉动的原因、成本推动的原因、货币供应量增加的原因、公众通胀预期的原因以及国际上的输入性因素这几个原因。通过对国外治理通胀措施的分析,得出一些值得借鉴的经验措施:财政政策逐步退出金融危机期间的刺激措施,多出台一些紧缩的财政措施;治理通胀不能顾此失彼,紧缩银根与减税要双管齐下;治理通胀要注意引发通胀的原因,根据引发的原因来采取相应的政策;同时要采取温和的手段,政策的实施方向要注意结合当前的经济形势,避免为了治理通货膨胀而采取一刀切或者猛烈的手段,同时也不能因为通胀治理初显效果就立刻采取扩张的政策刺激经济。综合通胀形成的原因以及对于国外抑通胀的经验借鉴,笔者从财政支出、税收、货币政策与财政政策协调配合等多方面提出了应对当前通胀及经济形势所应采取的措施,认为扩张性的财政政策可以适当的紧缩,但是要把握好度,继续显现积极的特征,因为在我国当前的经济发展阶段,为了促进产业结构升级、加快经济发展方式的转变,必须靠积极的财政政策给予支持,而且在国计民生上面的投入不能减少,因此得出结论:不能过紧的收缩财政政策,以防演变“滞胀”。文章总共分为五个部分。第一部分主要介绍了本文的研究背景、选题意义以及当前一些学者对于通货膨胀的看法。第二部分介绍了通货膨胀与财政政策的相关理论。这部分为基础理论性内容,对本文的两大理论以及两者之间的相关性进行了梳理。第三部分为我国现阶段通货膨胀的表现及成因分析。通过对通胀指标和形成原因的分析,更好的了解当前的通货膨胀,为财政政策的选择做铺垫。第四部分对国外通货膨胀的治理做了简单的概述,主要分为发达国家和发展中国家,通过对别国采取措施的解读,更好的吸取值得借鉴的经验。最后一部分对当前通胀下我国财政政策的选择进行了分析。通过结合我国通胀形成的原因,以及对国外经验的借鉴,从财政支出、税收、货币政策与财政政策协调配合等方面对财政政策的选择做出了尝试性意见。

【Abstract】 Before the outbreak of the international financial crisis, along with rapideconomic growth, inflation has existed. In the era of post-financial crisis, inflationintensified. The global frequency of natural disasters, the European sovereign debtcrisis, the quantitative easing monetary policy of Major economies in developedcountries, rising international commodity prices, promote the intensification of theinflation. Taking a series of monetary policy, the CPI year-on-year growth rate is stillcontinued to rise, have been rising from5.3%in April2011to6.5%in July which is arecord high.As one of the two macro-control policies, the fiscal policy should meet themonetary policy to take the initiative to make up for the inadequacies of monetarypolicy. This paper analyzes the reasons for the formation of the current inflation. Thewriter believe that the current inflation is a variety of reasons, demand pull, cost-driven reasons, money supply increased, public inflation expectations andinternational input factors. The writer conclude some experience which is worthlearning from foreign measures controlling inflation. through the analysis of theforeign inflation control measures. It includes: The stimulus fiscal policy of financialcrisis gradually withdraw and introduce a number of tight fiscal measures; In thecontrol of inflation, we should not take one thing into consideration to the neglect ofthe other, monetary tightening and tax cuts to be two-pronged; Governance inflation topay attention to inflationary reasons, to take appropriate policy; At the same time takea moderate means, pay attention to the current economic situation, avoid to take "oneknife cut" or violent means in order to control inflation.According to the cause of inflation and measures other countries take, the authorgives some tentative recommendations from financial expenditure,taxation,Monetarypolicy and fiscal policy coordination and some other respect. The author thinkexpansionary fiscal policy can be tightened moderately, but should continue to showpositive characteristics. Because in China’s current development stage of economic, weneed active fiscal policy to promote upgrading of industrial structure and change in the pattern of economic development, and investment in the people’s livelihood can not bereduced. Therefore concluded that, we can not take tight fiscal policy too tightlypreventing the evolution of "stagflation".The article has been divided into five parts. The first part introduces the researchbackground of this article, the significance of the topic, as well as some scholars viewfor inflation.The second part presents the theory of inflation and fiscal policy. This part isbasic theoretical content include two major theoretical and the correlation betweenthem.The third part analysis the performance of inflation and the cause of the inflation.Through the analysis of the causes of inflation targets and a better understanding of thecurrent inflation, laying the groundwork for fiscal policy choices.The fourth part outlines the governance of foreign inflation, include developedcountries and developing countries. Through learning other countries’ measures we canto better deal with the inflation.The last part analysis the choice of fiscal policy under the current inflation.According to the cause of inflation and measures other countries take, the author givessome tentative recommendations from financial expenditure,taxation,Monetary policyand fiscal policy coordination and some other respect.

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 吉林大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2012年 10期
  • 【分类号】F812.0;F822.5
  • 【下载频次】478
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