【作者】 顾超然；

【导师】 朱广宇；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 系统工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的快速发展和城市化水平的不断提高,城市道路交通需求迅速增长与城市道路交通设施建设相对缓慢的矛盾越来越严重,从而引起了严重的交通问题,严重影响了道路交通的安全性和运行效率,因此,对作为交通诱导和交通控制基础的道路交通状态进行准确的判别是十分必要的。本文以城市道路交通状态判别为研究对象,鉴于交通状态的模糊性和不确定性特征,本文选用模糊c均值算法对交通状态进行判别；在对城市道路交通状态判别指标进行研究的基础上,结合交通参数选取的原则,确定了本文进行交通状态判别的交通参数；为了尽量避免交通参数数据中噪声的干扰,从而得到更加准确的判别结果,本文对选取的交通参数数据进行了预处理；为了得到最优的聚类结果,本文对模糊c均值算法的模糊加权指数m和聚类类数c这两个参数进行了优选研究,从而得到基于选取路段交通参数数据的最优m、c值,同时,针对FCM算法收敛较慢的缺点,本文将HCM算法和FCM算法结合起来,很好的解决了这个问题；最后,本文选取一段快速路的数据进行了实例分析,得出了选取路段的交通状态,并对FCM算法的判别结果进行了评价。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of the economic and the continuous improvement of urbanization, the Contradiction between the transportation need and the traffic facilities becomes increasingly serious due to the fast increased need of road transportation and the relatively slow construction of road traffic facilities. Subsequently, transportation safety and efficiency have been going down gradually and leading to other traffic problems. As the basis of the traffic guidance and the traffic control, it is essential to get accurate traffic state identification.In this paper, the urban road traffic state identification is researched. As the traffic state is fuzzy and uncertain, the fuzzy c-means algorithm is employed to identify the traffic state. Traffic state identification are determined on the basis of the research of the traffic state identification indexes according to the traffic parameter selection principle. The traffic data has been pretreated to decrease the interference of noise, and then the identification results are obtained more accurately. In order to obtain the best clustering results, fuzzy weighted index m and the number of clusters c are researched aimed to get the best optimized m and c values. To make up the convergence slower shortcoming of the FCM algorithm, the HCM algorithm is combined with the FCM algorithm, and it turns out to be a good solution to this problem. In the end, this solution has been put into practice, the traffic state of the selected urban freeway has been obtained accurately and its identification has been evaluated reasonably.更多还原