【作者】 宋晔文；

【导师】 金祥荣；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 金融学， 2012， 硕士

【副题名】基于新古典框架的实证研究

【摘要】 按照新古典理论的预期,资本在国际间流动时会从发达国家流向欠发达国家,延续这一逻辑,资本在一国内部流动时,也应从发达地区向欠发达地区流动。然而,诸多学者研究发现,改革开放以来我国省际间的资本流动情况与新古典理论的预期截然相反,主要是从较为落后的中西部地区流向发达的东部地区。为了从定量角度理解我国省际资本流动的规律和生成机制,本文借鉴Kalemli-Ozcan et al. (2010)的做法,采用产出收入比率考察各省区的净资本流动方向。随后,本文利用一个基于新古典框架的经验模型,结合我国省级面板数据,以固定效应回归方法分析我国资本的省际流动特征。研究发现,中国区域间资本流动确实存在由经济欠发达的中西部地区流向经济发达的东部地区的现象。中国省际资本流动总体上呈现出以下三个特征：一是从经济增长较缓慢的省区流向经济增长较快的省区；二是从欠发达的省区流向较发达的省区；三是资本的省际流动速率表现出条件收敛的趋势。本文还从资本流动的渠道角度定性分析了省际资本流动同区域间差距以及经济增长的关系,认为在中国的特殊国情下,政府应该采取措施,积极引导资本的跨地区配置,为区域经济的平衡发展以及国民经济的可持续发展铺路。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the expectation of Neoclassical Theory, international capital will flow from developed countries to less developed ones. Similarly, domestic capital will flow from developed regions to less developed ones, too. However, searchers found that since the Reform and Opening from 1979, China’s inter-provincial capital flows contradict the prediction of the theory. Domestic capital flows uphill from the relatively poorer regions of Central and Western to the wealthy Eastern region.To better understand the rules and mechanisms of domestic capital flows from a quantitative point of view, this paper uses the output-income ratio to examine the direction of net capital flows between China’s provinces and regions. Procedure is as follows:build an empirical model based on neo-classical framework; use China’s provincial-level panel data to process fixed effects regression analysis. This paper found that inter-regional capital flows do flow uphill to developed Eastern region. In general, China’s inter-provincial capital flows present the following three characteristics:First, capital flows from provinces with slower economic growth to faster-growing provinces; Second, capital flows from more developed to less developed provinces; Third, the growing trend of capital inflows or outflows among provinces shows a trend of convergence under conditions. This paper also gives a qualitative analysis of inter-provincial capital flows from the perspective of different channels, to examine the relationship between capital flows and the regional gaps as well as economic growth. The point is that under China’s specific national conditions, the Government should take measures to actively guide the trans-regional configuration of the capital, and pave the way for the balanced regional economic development and sustainable growth.更多还原