电子对抗装备全寿命周期风险管理初探

【作者】 杨晔；

【导师】 张建秋； 郑君锋；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 项目管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 电子对抗装备是现代化信息技术武器装备,不同于一般的产品项目,由于装备采办的政治性、外部环境的不确定性、装备自身的复杂性、承制单位自身能力的有限性都会给项目带来风险。电子对抗装备全寿命周期的各个不同阶段具有各自不同的特点,因此各个阶段存在的主要风险类型和风险的轻重主次也不尽相同,为保证电子对抗装备的质量,必须对其全寿命周期进行风险管理与应对。目前,我国电子对抗领域大部分单位缺少专门而系统的风险管理,未建立起完善的风险管理体制。如何对电子对抗装备项目进行有效的风险管理并建立较为完善的风险管理体系是本文的出发点和归结点。本文针对电子对抗装备项目系统结构复杂、技术创新性高、风险管理方法滞后等特点,结合自身学习实践和电子对抗装备项目管理经验,对电子对抗装备项目的风险识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控进行探讨。初步构建了风险管理框架,提出了适合科研院所的风险识别方法,在对常用的风险评估的技术和方法进行比较和分析的基础上,构建风险评估模型。并以一项目作为实例,分析归纳出项目寿命周期各个阶段的风险清单,并对该项目的风险管理效果进行跟踪,从而为后续的电子对抗装备项目风险研究提供一定的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Electronic warfare (EW) is a kind of modern information technology military equipments, it is different from ordinary production project. Its risk comes from the political factors of defense acquisition, the uncertainties of exterior environments, the complexity of equipments, the limited ability of equipment suppliers, etc. In the different periods of the EW equipment full life cycle, the categories of major risks and the prioritizing of risks are quietly different. In order to assure the equipments qualification, we should undertake the risk management and control actions in its full life cycle. Presently, many military equipments suppliers in our EW area are short of specialized and systematical risk management, yet to build a perfect risk management system. This article endeavors to solve how to undertake an effective risk management and attempt to establish a perfect risk management system in the EW equipment project.Based on the characteristics of EW equipment projects, such as system contracture complexity, high technology creativity, shortage of risk managing methods, combining with the writers study and EW equipments project management experience, this article tries to discuss risk identification, risk assessment, risk treating and risk monitoring in EW equipment projects. Firstly it builds a risk management structure, presents risk identification methods suitable for defense equipments research institutes, based on the comparison and analyzing of some commonly used risk evaluation techniques and methods, design a risk assessment model. Then, this article takes a certain project as an example, analyzes and sums up the risk listings in the different periods of the project full life cycle, tracking its risk management effects, in order to providing some references for the risk investigation of the following-up EW equipment projects.更多还原