【作者】 任珍珍；

【导师】 曾令华；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 金融学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 从理论上讲,本币升值和国内物价上涨都有抑制出口的作用,但是,在近几年我国人民币升值和物价上涨同时存在的情况下,我国的贸易顺差似乎并没有减少。究竟人民币汇率水平和物价水平的变动对我国贸易收支造成的影响如何,本文拟就上述问题运用定性与定量分析,理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法做相关的探讨。本文首先对贸易收支调节中汇率与物价关系的理论进行介绍,然后利用协整检验、误差修正模型和自回归分布滞后模型,采用2005年8月至2008年12月的月度数据,分别以中国与美国、日本、韩国、香港地区、英国、俄罗斯、加拿大、印度八个主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易收支和中国总量贸易收支为样本,对贸易收支、人民币汇率和国内外通货膨胀进行实证分析。结果表明:中国与韩国、加拿大、印度、英国的人民币双边汇率升值与中国居民消费价格指数上涨均能减小双边贸易顺差,与理论分析相符,即在双边贸易收支调节中人民币升值与中国通货膨胀有替代性;中国与其余四国的双边样本中,人民币升值与中国通货膨胀对双边贸易收支的作用并不一致;中国贸易收支总量与人民币名义有效汇率、中国居民消费价格指数存在长期协整关系,但人民币名义有效汇率上升会促进贸易收支顺差,居民消费价格指数上升能减小贸易收支顺差。人民币升值和国内通货膨胀在中国与韩国、加拿大、印度、英国的双边贸易样本中均体现出了减少贸易收支顺差的作用,说明人民币升值和通货膨胀对贸易收支有一定的调节力。要调节我国的贸易收支,仅寄希望于人民币大幅升值或通货膨胀大幅上涨都是不可行的,我国应该保持人民币稳步升值和适度通货膨胀,并采取一系列综合措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 In theory, the currency appreciation and domestic inflation can reduce exports. In recent years, the appreciation of RMB and price rising exist at the same time. However, China’s trade surplus does not seem to have a tendency to reduce. Whether the changes of RMB exchange rate and price have impacts on China’s trade balance or not, we try to use the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis means to discuss the relationship between them.In this thesis, we first introduced the relationship between exchange rate and price in the trade balance adjustment theory. And then, we use cointegration tests, error correction model and the autoregressive distributed lag model to discuss China’s bilateral trade with her major trading partners in eight countries, and China’s total trade balance. The eight major trading partners are United States, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Britain, Russia, Canada and India. The paper analyses the relationships of the trade balance of China, the RMB exchange rate and inflation at home and abroad based on empirical test. Empirical results show that: the bilateral exchange rate of RMB appreciation and the Consumer Price Index up in China are able to reduce the bilateral trade surplus in China and South Korea, Canada, India and United Kingdom bilateral samples. These are in line with the theoretical analysis. In other words, there are substitution effects between the appreciation of RMB and China’s inflation in China’s bilateral trade balance adjustment with the three countries. The empirical analysis between China and the rest five countries is not uniform. There is a long-term co-integration in the China’s total trade balance, nominal effective exchange rate of RMB, China’s Consumer Price Index. However, the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB promoted the trade surplus, while the rising of the Consumer Price Index reduced the trade surplus.RMB appreciation and domestic inflation in China reduce the trade surplus between China’s bilateral trade balance with South Korea, Canada, India and United Kingdom.This shows that the appreciation of RMB and inflation have a certain impact on the trade balance. However, in order to reduce China’s trade surplus, it is not feasible, if we only rely on the sharp appreciation of RMB or significant increases in inflation. China should maintain a steady appreciation of the RMB and moderate inflation, and take a series of comprehensive measures. China’s steady appreciation of the RMB should be taken and the policy of moderate inflation, as well as comprehensive measures more favorable.更多还原