港口与城市耦合机制及模拟调控研究

【作者】 潘婧；

【导师】 杨山；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2011， 硕士

【副题名】以连云港为例

【摘要】 随着经济全球化进程的不断加快,全球经济重心向沿海港口城市转移的态势愈加明显,港口城市成为提升我国国家竞争力的关键。“以港兴城,以城带港,港城相长,衰荣共济”是世界港口的普遍发展规律。现阶段我国处于城市化高速发展时期,但还没有形成世界型的港口城市。港城之间的耦合机制不顺畅是导致港口城市综合竞争力不强的关键因素。由此,选择一个典型地区探讨港城耦合的机理、规律和模拟调控,为港口与城市间的互动发展及社会经济效益的提升提供理论与实践支持,是关系到我国国民经济与社会发展的重要课题。论文根据低碳经济、可持续发展的要求,综合地理科学、系统工程、信息科学、管理学的理论与方法,坚持理论来源于实践又反过来指导实践的原则,遵循“内涵——机制——评价——规律——政策”的研究思路,着重揭示系统耦合机制及调控体系的设计,尝试从理论与实证两方面探索港城耦合系统,并将研究成果运用到连云港港城耦合的实践中去。论文在系统总结国内外港口与城市作用关系研究进展的基础上,从港口与城市两个系统及其内部各构成要素相互作用、相互影响形成的非线性关系总和这个港城耦合内涵出发,提炼出反映港口与城市及外系统之间互动关系的PU框架,着重分析了港城耦合的机制为港城耦合内部结构决定港城耦合的外在行为,同时环境和规律也是影响港城耦合系统的重要因素。采用耗散结构理论中的熵理论建立港城耦合模式的外在判别体系,运用系统动力学的因果关系分析探究港城耦合系统的内在结构。在PU框架基础上利用定性与定量分析相结合的方法,构建出港城耦合指标筛选程序；全面分析了连云港港城耦合基本情况,运用指标筛选程序建立了连云港港城耦合指标体系。采用系统熵基础下的港城耦合判别模式分析了1996-2008年间连云港港城耦合状况,作为港城耦合系统外在行为和机能的测度。利用耗散结构理论对港城耦合系统的演进规律进行研究,港城系统具有开放性、远离平衡态和非线性的耗散结构特征,是一个耗散结构系统,在分析系统演化过程与熵值变化关系时,发现要使系统达到低熵有序状态,必须使系统开放,且从外界得到足够的负熵流。港城系统的演进规律是系统随时间进程存在演化分叉,为保证系统朝着正确的方向演化,需要在关键时刻依靠能发挥乘数效应的负熵流保证系统熵值的下降。基于港城耦合特征、机制和规律,设计了基于系统动力学的港城耦合SD模型,并通过连云港的实证验证了模型的有效性和实用性。根据连云港的实际设计了两种仿真模拟方法,得出了短期和长期连云港实现港城耦合综合效益最大化的策略,并提出连云港港城耦合建设的若干政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the accelerating process of economic globalization, global economic center of gravity shift to the coastal port city trend becomes more obvious, the port city to enhance our national competitiveness as the key. " to promote port by urban, to promote the urban areas by port, balance urban and port development" is the universal law of development of the world’s ports. The development of urbanization in China is fast in this period, but have not formed a world type of port city. The coupling mechanism between port and urban is not smooth is the key factor which led to the weak comprehensive competitiveness. Thus, choose a typical area to research the coupling mechanism, laws and analog control between port and urban development and in order to provide theoretical and practical support, is related to our economic and social development subject. Based on low-carbon economy, sustainable development requirements, This paper comprehensive geographic science, systems engineering, information science, management theory and methods, adhere to the theory comes from practice principles to guide practice in turn, follow the "content-mechanism-Evaluation-law-policy "research ideas, focusing on the coupling mechanism and reveal the system control system design, attempts to explore both theoretical and coupling system, and research applied to the practice of Lianyungang city.Based on consulting many documentaries at home and abroad, the paper summarizes the research course,research results and future research direction of the relationship between port and urban,from which we can seek breakthrough point of the researeh.From the port and urban system and its constituent elements influence each other to form the PU framework which reflecting the complex relationship between port and urban,emphatically analyzes the coupling mechanism is that the internal structure decided to inner behavior, and environment and rule are also the important factors which influence the coupling system.Using the entropy theory of dissipative structure theory to founded the external discriminant system, using system dynamics of causality analysis and investigation of the inner harbor coupling system structure. Using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method, constructed the city coupling index screening procedures based the PU framework; comprehensive analysis on the basic situation of lianyungang city coupling, with the index screening program establishes lianyungang city coupling index system. Basis by the City system entropy determination mode analysis of coupling between 1996-2008 coupled condition of Lianyungang City, as the external behavior and function of the measure.Looking from the perspective of dissipative structure, city-urban is a system of dissipative structure supported by external environment of nature,society and economy,based on coupling between systems of port and urban both temporal and spacial. According to the analysis of its evolution process,the system develops towards a orderly and senior direction through fluctuations of its size.To make the system to achieve low entropy and orderly state, and must make the system open, and gets from the outside world enough negative entropy flows. The Law of evolution of the system is the system evolution over time, there is the process of bifurcation, to ensure the evolution of the system in the right direction, you need to play at a critical moment to rely on the multiplier effect of the negative entropy flow to ensure that the system entropy decreased.According to the port and urban coupling characteristics, this paper established PU-SD model in coupling between port and urban, which analyzed multiple feedback mechanisms of port-urban coupling system and interactive process of each system. Taking Lianyungang City in Jiangsu Province as an example, the model which has been proved reliable and applicable,choose relevant parameters as control variables for strategic scenario simulation. The results indicate that it is necessary for lianyungang to change the structure and use of development planning of resources to achieve the port-city coordinated and sustainable development. The paper puts forward maero-eontrol eountermeasures to promote the interaction of Port and urban.更多还原