【作者】 尹志华；

【导师】 唐斌；

【作者基本信息】 成都理工大学 ， 摄影测量与遥感， 2011， 硕士

【副题名】以北川县为例

【摘要】 “5?12”汶川大地震导致高烈度区泥石流源地的滑坡更加发育,积累的松散物质更加丰富,同年北川“9?24”暴雨使泥石流源地滑坡进一步复活并产生大量新滑坡,从而使强震区泥石流发生频率增高,规模增大。近年来,地质灾害频繁发生,灾害给人类的生命与物质财产带来的损失是巨大的,所以对滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害的预测预警、防灾减灾势在必行。地理信息系统(GIS)技术、遥感(RS)技术的迅速发展为区域滑坡、泥石流灾害敏感性评价提供了很好的技术支持。本文研究将以GIS和RS技术为依托,以研究区高精度DEM数据和历史滑坡分布数据为基础资料,旨在实现对大范围滑坡进行快速、有效、低成本、高精度的敏感性评价,从而对灾害防治和滑坡避害范围提供决策依据。由于各种地质因素本身的不确定性,地质因素之间相互作用的复杂性,以及基础资料的质量问题与不完备,这些一直是困扰地质灾害区域预测预报的一道难题。本文将借鉴前人的研究,针对现有区域滑坡敏感性评价模型的优势和不足,提出一种改进模型。该模型将斜坡稳定性信息量评价模型与Runout区基于DEM的水文分析模型进行有效的集成。斜坡稳定性评价模型是基于信息量统计模型对潜在滑坡源区的敏感性给予等级区划,其中对斜坡稳定性具有贡献的地形因子将会作为斜坡变形失稳的评测因子;基于DEM的水文分析模型主要是针对暴雨过程形成的斜坡表层径流导致悬挂于斜坡上的滑坡体表面和前缘松散物质向下输移进入沟道后转为泥石流的runout行为的敏感性等级区划。二者得出的敏感性等级区划专题图再次根据等级进行叠加分析,从而得出最终的综合评价结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 "5 ? 12" earthquake triggered landslides of debris flow source in high intensity area is more development, the accumulation of loose material is more abundant, the same year in Beichuan County, "9 ? 24" storm made landslides in debris flow source further revival and produced a large number of new landslides so that increased the frequency and scale of debris flow in earthquake areas. In recent years, frequent geological disasters bring enormous material property losses and death to human . so forecast and early warning, disaster prevention and reduction for landslides、debris flow and other geological disasters should be imperative. the rapid development of the geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) provides a good technical support for landslide and debris flow Susceptibility assessment.This research which relys on GIS and RS technology and bases on high accuracy DEM data and historical landslide inventory of the study area , aims at achieving large-scale landslides on fast, efficient, low-cost, high-precision susceptibility assessment ,which can help us make right decisions for landslide disaster prevention. Due to various inherently uncertainty of terrain parameters , the independence of the different terrain parameters,the quality of basic data and incompleteness of basic information of geological disaster area, it is very difficult to geological disaster area forecast. This paper will propse an improved analysis model which learns from others experience, that advantages and disadvantages of the existing regional landslide susceptibility assessment model. The improved model will obtain landslide susceptibility map after terrain failure susceptibility and runout susceptibility integration.Terrain failure susceptibility assessment model forecasts potential landslide sources and gives them susceptibility levels based on Information Value method .In this model,which has contributed to the terrain slope stability factors will be used as the evaluation factor for the slope deformation and instability.DEM-based hydrological model is mainly for assessing runout behavior susceptibility levels. The final evaluation results will arrive from the overlay analysis on these two thematic maps of susceptibility levels.更多还原