【作者】 董坤；

【导师】 贾志永；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 企业管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 在传统财务理论中假定在经济生活中人是完全理性的,有足够的决策能力来做出有益于自己的决策,该假设认为人们对每一项交易都会衡量其代价和利益,并且会选择对自己最有利的方案。但从二十世纪八十年代以来,行为财务理论日益兴起且逐日发展,对原有财务理论框架下的理性人假设和有效市场假说提出了强有力的挑战。在这方面,除了管理者过度自信与公司投资决策之间的关系外,管理者过度自信与公司债务方式融资之间的关系也逐步成为研究的重点。在理论方面的研究已经取得了初步的结论,但是相关的实证研究还存在着一些问题,主要就是因为管理者的过度自信这一变量很难有一个准确的衡量方法。国外关于这方面的研究已近做的比较多了,而国内相关的研究还比较少见。所以在中国这样一个由政府主导发展起来的新兴股票市场下,上市公司管理层是否存在过度自信特征?管理层的过度自信特征与上市公司资本结构决策之间存在着怎么样的关系呢?这些都值得学者们进一步研究。在以上分析的基础上,本文以实证方法进行研究,收集了2006年到2009年度深圳交易所中小板上市公司的有关数据,得到面板数据样本,并利用Eviews6.0软件对数据进行统计分析,实证检验分析了管理层过度自信对公司资本结构和债务期限的影响,最终得出以下结论：(1)公司的资本结构受到管理层过度自信的显著影响,管理层过度自信与公司资产负债率之间呈现显著的正相关关系,这说明如果公司的管理层具有过度自信特征则该公司会更多的采取债务方式融资。(2)公司的债务期限受到管理层过度自信的显著影响,管理层过度自信与公司短期资产负债率之间存在显著的正相关关系,这说明如果公司的管理层具有过度自信特征则该公司更多的采用短期债务。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the traditional finance theory, we assume that people are rational in the economic activity, we believed that people have sufficient capacity in the decision-making to benefit themselves. In the assumption, we assume that people will measure their costs and benefits, and then they will choose the best option for themselves. However, since the 1980th, the behavioral finance theory was developed, and it made a strong challenge to traditional finance theory. Many studies focus on the relationship between manager overconfidence and investment decisions, but recently they give more focus on the relationship between manager overconfidence and company’s debt financing. In the theoretical studies they have made a preliminary conclusion, but there are some problems in the related empirical research. The mainly reason is that it is difficult to measure the manager over-confidence precisely. There are many studies abroad, but the domestic research is relatively rare. So in China, under the government-led developed stock markets background, do the listed company’s management have overconfidence features? If they have, how the management overconfidence impact on the capital structure of listed companies? All these problems are worthy of further study.Based on the above analysis, This paper use empirical research method, collected relevant data from 2006 to 2009 of the medium and small companies listed on the Shenzhen stock exchange in China. Then we use Eviews6.0 for statistical analysis. Empirical analysis examined how the managerial overconfidence impact on capital structure and debt maturity, and finally got the following conclusions:(1) The company’s capital structure is significantly impacted by the managerial overconfidence. Managerial overconfidence and the company’s capital structure are positively correlated, with 10% level of significance, this indicates that companies with overconfident managers prefer debt financing.(2) The company’s debt maturity structure is significantly impacted by the managerial overconfidence. Managerial overconfidence and the company’s debt maturity structure are positively correlated, with 10% level of significance, this indicates that companies with overconfident managers have more short-term debt financing.更多还原