【作者】 季玲玲；

【导师】 肖诗顺；

【作者基本信息】 四川农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 硕士

【副题名】以早籼稻为例

【摘要】 稻谷是我国三大粮食作物之首,研究其价格形成机制对研究我国粮食问题有非常重要的意义。稻谷的价格形成机制十分复杂,从建国以来历经了“自由市场定价——政府定价——双轨制定价——价格市场化”的定价体制改革过程,但总体来说不是很成功。国家于2004年全面放开粮食购销市场,实行多渠道经营,稻谷收购主体明显增加,竞争激烈；另外,近几年物价指数快速上升,导致稻谷价格波动较大,稻谷种植户和现货企业面临的市场风险日益增加。2009年4月郑商所推出了早籼稻期货合约,旨在稳定稻谷现货市场。因此有必要研究并把握稻谷的价格形成机制,为完善我国稻谷价格的市场化改革提供政策建议。本文以早籼稻价格形成机制为例分析稻谷的价格形成机制,对早籼稻价格的研究采取定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法。首先,简要介绍了国内的稻谷市场现状以及稻谷价格体制的演变过程；其次,定性分析了稻谷价格的形成机制；再次,分析早籼稻期货的市场的有效性,检验期货价格对现货价格是否有影响,并运用回归分析法对早籼稻市场价格的其他主要影响因素进行检验,找出影响我国早籼稻价格的主要因素；最后,在以上分析基础上提出政策建议。通过研究,本文主要得出以下结论：稻谷价格的稳定对社会经济的稳定发展发挥着重要作用,稻谷自身的不稳定性特点与其关系社会安全的功能经常相矛盾,导致稻谷价格市场化进程总是因为受到国家的宏观调控而终结；早籼稻期货与现货价格之间存在一个协整关系,期货市场在短期内具有价格发现功能,并达到了弱式有效；早籼稻价格的主要影响因素是产量、物价指数和期货价格；早籼稻期货的上市,可以为种植户和现货企业提供一个有效的风险规避方式,也会使稻谷的价格形成机制更加完善。根据分析结果,本文提供以下政策建议：建立完善的稻谷市场体系；加强对稻谷期货市场的建设；积极培育稻谷产业的龙头企业；增加对稻谷种植产业的投入；完善稻谷相关市场的法律法规。更多还原

【Abstract】 Paddy is one of the three important grain corps, so the study of its pricing mechanism makes great sense to the study of food problem. The long-term’s reform of China’s paddy pricing mechanism is unsuccessful totally for the reason of it is rather complex. The reform process is as followings:free market prices system-government prices system-double-track prices system-towards market-oriented prices system.In 2004, the government freed grain markets in purchases and sales and carried the policy of multi-channel operation. As a result, there are more and more proper buyers, so the competition in this field is becoming more and more serious. In addition, China’s CPI index in recent years rises fast. All these make the paddy prices fluctuated violently and increase the risk of the person who plant and operate paddy day by day.Our country pushed "Early Rice Futures" in Apr 20th 2009 in the hope of stabilizing its price. So, it is necessary to study and hold the paddy pricing mechanism as to offer some helpful suggestions in stabilizing the domestic paddy market and protecting the paddy participants’interests.I analyze the paddy pricing mechanism with qualitative and quantitative analysis of a combination method in this paper. In the first place, I brief introduce the paddy spot market and the evolution process of its pricing mechanism. In the second place, I make a qualitative analysis about its pricing mechanism and find out the main factors affected the price by regression analysis. In the third place, I take early rice as an example to make an empirical analysis of pricing mechanism. I test whether the futures market is effective and find out the key factors affected the price of early rice by regression analysis. At last, I offer some policy proposals basing on the previous study.By the previous study I make the following conclusions:The steady paddy price plays an important role in stabilizing the economic society’s steady development. However, its own instability character and its function to maintain social’s security is always a contradiction. This is the reason that government’s macro-interference always stops the paddy price towards market-oriented price all the time. By the effectiveness analysis, I find that there has a co-integration between futures and spot market, and the futures market is weak form efficient. The key influence factor is its yield, price index and futures prices. The list of early rice futures can provide an effective means to avoid risk for paddy participants and also perfect the pricing mechanism.By the analysis result, I offer the following policy proposals:set up a complete paddy market system, cultivate the paddy champion enterprise to play exemplary and leading role, concentrate on futures market’s improvement, increase input in paddy plantation industries, and constantly perfect the construction of law in paddy related market.更多还原