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程潮铁矿大气降水—涌水量统计预测分析
The Analysis of Chengchao Iron Mine Atmospheric Precipitation-water Inflow Statistics Forecosting
【作者】 赵雯雯；
【导师】 叶义成；
【作者基本信息】 武汉科技大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2011， 硕士
【摘要】 程潮铁矿井下涌水来源相对较简单,地表水系不发达,由于地下开采的不断疏干排水,矿区地下水的静储量逐渐减少,大气降水的渗透补给成为矿坑充水的主要来源。根据程潮铁矿的开采技术条件,防治地下水害的重要技术措施是研究井下涌水量与大气降水的相互关系和影响。系统统计了程潮铁矿近年降水量及井下涌水量资料,运用多元统计相关分析技术,探讨了井下涌水量相对大气降水量的滞后时间关系,研究表明,大气降水渗透补给与矿坑涌水之间存在滞后时间,在汛期延迟时间持续较久,是影响涌水量主要因素。在此基础上进一步分别研究了正常降水和汛期降水对井下涌水量变化的时间序列特征和规律,利用传递函数模型较清晰地描述了大气降水-井下涌水系统变化规律,并对程潮铁矿2010年雨季大气降水量和涌水量进行了统计预测分析。针对统计数据的波动性大、趋势变化不稳定、季节影响因素多、历史数据不完整等特点,在传递函数残差改进分析的基础上建立了基于二阶有效度的BP-传递函数的组合预测模型。模型预测结果揭示涌水量的主要来源为大气降雨,且降水量增大时会在一段时期内持续影响涌水量的变化。因此,在预防透水事故的发生时,对其措施的分析和应急方案的制定成为程潮铁矿安全工作的主要内容。
【Abstract】 The hydrology geology condition of Chenchao Iron Mine is simple, and the ground surface water system is undeveloped. With the increase of mineral drainage, the ground water static reserves reduces gradually, so the main source of water-filled pit becoming the infiltration of rainfall recharge. The most important task of prevention in Chengchao Iron Mine is the precipitation analysis and the prediction of water inflow into underground water gushing.The general statistics of rainfall and discharge this year in Chengchao Iron Mine shows that the mine water inflow was delayed by the precipitation infiltration of supplies through correlation analysis, the reason of the discharge affecting was that the flood season was sustained by a long time. On the basis of the relationship between atmospheric precipitation and water inflow, a statistical prediction of atmospheric precipitation and discharge was conducted on 2010 in Chengchao Iron Mine. As the feature is that the statistical data was easy to fluctuate and the transformation trends were unstable, the seasonal factors and the incompletion of the historical data existed, the analysis of effectiveness with the BP-order transfer function of the combination forecasting model was established based on the residual improvement in the transfer function. The model prediction results reveal that the main source of water inflow was the rainfall, which would continue the change in discharge over a period of time when the precipitation increased. Therefore, when preventing the flooding accident from being occurred, the analysis of the prevention method and the establishment of the emergency project have become the main content of security in Chengchao Iron Mine.