中国总需求结构的调整和国际收支的均衡研究

【作者】 鲍尖；

【导师】 陆前进；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 金融学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 在过去的十几年中,中国经济取得了快速增长,同时中国的国际收支却严重失衡,这种失衡背后隐藏的是对经济持续增长的质疑和对国民福利丧失的担忧。本文首先回顾了几百年以来国际收支的经典理论,并回顾了近年来国内外学者对国际收支失衡的理论和实证研究。这些研究有基于人民币汇率和国际收支失衡之间的探讨,而更多的是从内外均衡的角度出发来研究国际收支失衡的原因。本文认为我国国际收支失衡的深层原因来源于内部的失衡,而我国总需求结构的失衡是这其中的主要原因。当有少部分人对我国巨额外汇储备欢欣鼓舞的同时,大多数学者表示了对这种以“双顺差”为特征的国际收支失衡的深深担忧。而在这种表面的“双顺差”的背后隐藏的机理表明我国是经常账户顺差、资本与金融账户逆差的资本输出国。本文也将对这一情况及其与原因进行阐述。本文将对我国国际收支账户的现状进行详细分析,得出经常账户的持续顺差是经济结构失调的表现,是总需求结构失衡的结果。总需求结构中居民消费率偏低,导致储蓄率过高,从而使得储蓄大于投资的内部经济结构性失调是国际收支失衡的根本原因。在总需求结构中,消费、投资、出口是拉动经济的“三驾马车”,其结构失衡不仅将阻碍经济的可持续性增长,更是我国目前国际收支失衡的罪魁祸首。在这三驾马车当中,消费才是促进经济持续发展的最终动力,投资和出口都只有转化为了消费,才是有效的。不然,抑或将导致产能过剩,经济停滞；抑或将导致内外需失衡,国民福利丧失。然而,与我国经济高速发展不相称的是我国居民消费率的持续下降。作为一个发展中国家,广大人民依然生活水平不高,与发达国家的差距显著,随着经济的发展和国民收入的增加,消费倾向应当是不断提高,为何反而会下降呢?这背后原因一部分是收入分配的不合理,一部分是出口导向型的总需求结构使得内外失衡交错,降低了国民福利。因此,研究这一问题对于提高我国国民福利,响应政府改善民生问题的号召具有非常积极的意义。本文在理论研究的基础上采用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等方法对中国近30年来的情况进行实证检验,并得出结论,提出政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the past decade, China’s economy has increased with fast speed. However, its balance of payments account has become out of balance, which brings suspect of a sustainable economy and worry about lost of social welfare. This paper first reviews classic theories on balance of payments since hundreds of years ago, as well as recent research on this topic. Among those researches, some are based on the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China’s balance of payments, while some analyze reasons of imbalance of payments from the aspect of internal and external disequilibrium. This paper agrees with the opinion that the deep reason for China’s imbalance of payments is its internal imbalance, and the imbalance of domestic demand structure is the main cause. We will systematically analyze the relationship between imbalance of payment and demand structure, and use empirical research to test China’s recent 30 years’macro-economy.While a few people are happy about our country’s huge amount of foreign exchange reserve, most researchers are very worried about the imbalance of payments which is characterized as "double surplus". However, behind this "double surplus", China actually is a capital export country with favorable balance in current account and adverse balance in capital and financial account. We will state why this should not happen in China at this stage.This paper analyzes accounts under balance of payments, and gets the result that continuously favorable balance in current account comes from imbalance of economic structure and domestic demand structure. In domestic demand structure, consumption rate is relatively low, while saving rate is high, which results in higher saving compared to investment. Consumption, investment, and export are three main stimuli in driving economy. The imbalance among them will not only prevent sustainability of economic growth, but also results in imbalance of payments. Actually, consumption is the ultimate power. Investment and export are not effective in fueling economic growth until they finally turn into consumption; otherwise it results in either excess production capacity, or loss of social welfare. However, as a developing country, with fast economic growth and increasing national income, we have decreasing consumption propensity. Why is this? It is partly because the distribution of income is not reasonable, partly because imbalance of demand structure.Therefore, it has significant meaning to do research on this topic to give suggestions on how to improve social welfare. This paper uses Johansen cointegration test, Granger test and impulse response function to examine China’s economy to demonstrate its theoretical statement. In the end it gets conclusion and gives suggestion to the policy makers.更多还原