中国经济转型风险与居民消费行为的关联分析

【作者】 李海雅；

【导师】 徐文虎；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 金融学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 得益于改革开放政策,我国的经济实现了跨越式的发展,经济总量已跻身世界第二。然而,比较发现,在经济快速增长的同时,我国的消费率,尤其是居民消费率在世界上仍处于较低水平,且明显偏离消费率变化的一般趋势和特点。消费率是衡量一国经济发展良性与否以及能否可持续发展的一个最基本、最重要的比率,居民消费率更是关乎国民福利改进的关键指标。中国消费率的特点表明居民尚未充分享受经济体制改革带来的成果；因此,本文基于中国经济转型的背景对居民消费行为进行研究,试图甄别牵制居民消费的因素,从而提出对策建议。本文共有六章,安排如下。第一章介绍研究背景,并对国内外文献进行回顾,从而提出本文采用的研究思路和方法。第二章先梳理了绝对收入消费理论等西方传统消费理论,再介绍预防性储蓄理论等消费理论的新发展,最后结合中国实际和文献研究成果评述了这些理论在中国的适用性,为后文定性分析和定量研究奠定基础。第三章分四阶段回顾了中国经济体制改革三十余年历程,提取影响居民消费的主要因素,为实证研究选择变量做好准备。第四章进行实证研究,以持久收入消费理论为基础,建立长期消费模型和短期动态消费模型(误差修正模型),研究居民消费倾向是否发生变化,以及引起变化的主要原因。第五章根据前文规范分析和实证分析的结果,针对性地提出政策建议。第六章是结束语,总结全文,并提出本文的不足及今后的研究方向。本文的理论分析认为,由于社会保障欠完善等原因,经济转型在一定程度上使得居民在收入、医疗支出、教育支出、住房、养老等方面的风险有所增大。而实证研究表明,城镇居民的消费行为在2003年前后发生了显著变化,长期和短期消费倾向均呈现下降趋势,而收入不确定性和医疗支出风险加大是引起变化的重要原因。因此,本文最后提出完善社会保障制度、加快医疗体制和教育体制改革、加强房地产市场调控等缓解相关风险的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Thanks to the reform and opening-up policy, China’s economy has experienced extremely fast growth, and now China holds the second largest GDP in the world. However, the ratio of consumption to GDP, especially the private consumption rate, is quite small, what’s more, the two rates deviate from the general law, which shows residents could not enjoy the bigger cake of economic progress. Since these rates are most fundamental indexes to check whether the development is normal, and whether social welfare has been improved, this paper is going to research private consumption behavior in the background of China’s economic transition, explaining why consumption lagged behind economic growth and giving some suggestions.This paper comprises six chapters. Chapter One includes introduction, literature review and method of research. In the second chapter, traditional theories, including absolute income consumption theory, are listed firstly, and then new theories, such as precautionary savings hypothesis, finally, discussion of their application in China. In Chapter Three, the reform of China’s economic system is investigated, in order to find the factors which influence private consumption. In Chapter Four, Econometric method is used to check whether the propensity of private consumption do go down and also to look into the reason. Suggestions about how to lower relative risks are given in the last but second chapter. Last chapter is the conclusion.It’s believed that the uncertainty of income, medical expenditure, education cost and housing expenditure is increasing during the economic transition due to not so perfect social security and other reasons. Empirical study agrees with such analysis, showing the consumption propensity of urban dwellers do decrease since 2003, which mainly caused by the increasing uncertainty of income and medical cost. Therefore, it’s suggested that the government should improve social security, speed up the reform of medical system as well as education system, and regulate real estate market.更多还原