【作者】 王亚群；

【导师】 张生瑞；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,随着西部高速公路建设快速发展,隧道占高速公路建设里程的比重越来越大。根据统计分析,隧道内的事故比例明显高于其它路段,其中,隧道进出口处的事故远高于隧道内部。对隧道路段的安全性评价越来越引起重视。遗憾的是,《公路项目安全性评价指南》对隧道路段的运行速度并未作出规定。因此,对隧道路段运行速度的预测模型进行研究显得尤为重要。本论文首先从驾驶人、车辆、道路和环境四个方面分析了影响隧道路段运行速度的因素；根据公路隧道的划分及建模的需要,用非接触式速度仪调查车辆在短隧道、中隧道、长隧道、特长隧道运行的连续速度。根据速度的变化规律,对长隧道、特长隧道进行隧道区段划分,划分了7个特征点,对不同的断面进行速度、交通量采集,确定各特征点处的V85,速度,为后面模型参数的标定提供具有统计意义的运行速度。其次,在隧道路段运行速度变化趋势分析下,从道路空间结构、交通运行环境两个方面选择11个自变量进行分析和量化,对自变量和运行速度进行单因素分析,检验自变量对运行速度是否存在显著影响。挑选出对运行速度存在显著影响的因子,进行共线性诊断,把非共线性、与因变量显著相关的因子纳入到多元回归模型中,建立隧道进出口及隧道内部运行速度预测模型。最后,选取西安-汉中方向隧道路段,对第四章预测模型进行参数标定及检验,经过检验,发现建立的模型对隧道路段运行速度拟合较好,建立模型的思路和方法可用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with the rapid development of construction of western expressway, the proportion of tunnel is gradually increasing. According to the statistical analysis, the ratio of accidence happened in tunnels is higher than other sections significantly. Especially the accidences happened in entrance and exit of tunnels is much more in internal of tunnels. The safety evaluation of tunnel section is concerned increasingly. While the operating speed has not regulated in Guidelines for Safety Audit of Highway. Therefore studying on the prediction model of operating speed of tunnel section is especially important.Firstly, the influence factors of speed in tunnel are analyzed from four aspects, which including drivers, vehicles, roads and traffic environment. The continuous speed in tunnels of different length is investigated by using non-contact device to meet the need of division of expressway tunnels and modeling. Then according to variation of speed, this paper divides longer and longest tunnel to seven sections and survey the speed on that seven feature points, final to ascertain v85 of each characteristic point.Secondly, under the analysis of the growing trend of speed in tunnel, this paper chooses eleven dependent variables from spatial structure of road and traffic environment, and figure up each variables, then analysis the influence of single factor to speed to building the model from operating speed and each variable. And tested the variable whether effected operating-speed significantly. Selected the factors that affect operating speed greatly and non collinear, and brought it in multiple regression to building the model of operating speed in tunnel. Finally, figure up the parameters of model.Finally, chose the tunnel of xi-han expressway, figure the parameters of operating speed model of fourth chapter. The established model fitted on the tunnel road speed better, so the ideas and method was available.更多还原