【作者】 韩斌；

【导师】 魏朗；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 交通量预测与服务水平分析是高速公路后评价的重要组成部分,它是在已有数据的基础上,通过调查研究分析预测未来年的交通量和服务水平情况。通过分析其与可行性研究报告预测情况的差距,可确定公路项目可行性研究中交通量的预测、判断、结论是否正确,并分析原因,吸取教训,总结经验,为今后改进公路项目可行性研究以及同类项目立项决策和建设提供依据。交通量预测与服务水平分析是提高公路项目投资决策和管理水平,提高公路项目评估和可行性研究工作质量的有效手段,在高速公路规划以及建成后评价的过程中,始终是一项重要而有意义的工作。本文旨在通过对昆楚高速公路交通量预测和服务水平分析研究,寻找一种适合我国高速公路交通量预测和服务水平分析的方法,为交通量预测和服务水平分析研究给予一定的建议与帮助,促进高速公路建设项目的健康、稳定、快速发展。主要内容如下：1、对昆楚高速公路交通流基本参数调查进行分析研究。首先,确定了昆楚高速公路交通流调查参数和调查方法,并针对昆楚高速公路组织安排交通流参数调查,得出相关数据；最后,给出昆楚高速公路交通流基本参数调查结论。2、对昆楚高速公路交通量预测进行分析研究。首先,确定了昆楚高速公路交通量预测的方法——“四阶段”法,明确了预测的基本理论、内容和程序；最后,结合昆楚高速公路相关数据,应用“四阶段”法对昆楚高速公路进行交通量预测,得到未来特征年昆楚高速公路各路段的交通量预测值。3、对昆楚高速公路的通行能力与服务水平进行分析研究。首先,确定了昆楚高速公路基本路段通行能力的计算方法,明确了服务水平的分级标准,提出了评价服务水平的主要指标；最后,在昆楚高速公路交通量预测结果的基础上,对该高速公路进行了通行能力计算和服务水平分析,得到未来特征年昆楚高速公路各路段服务水平等级。本文是云南省交通科技项目《云南省高等级公路建设后评价及指标体系研究》的研究内容之一。更多还原

【Abstract】 Traffic volume prediction and service level analysis are the most important components of the post evaluation, which, based on the existing date, does the research to analyze and to predict the traffic volume and service level in the future. We can find out whether the prediction, assessment and conclusion of the traffic volume in the feasibility study of road projects is correct or not by the comparison of it and feasibility study report, and by analyzing the reasons and learning lessons, there will be a basis for the improvement of road projects feasibility study and similar projects policy decision and construction. Traffic volume prediction and service level analysis investment decisions are efficient method to improve the highway investment and decision making and management. Besides, it is significant and meaningful to the highway planning and post evolution after it’s building.This paper aims at analyzing traffic volume prediction and service level analysis of Kun-Chu highway, trying to find out a method that suits traffic volume prediction and service level analysis in our country, hoping to give some advice and assistance in traffic prediction and service level analysis, and to promote the health, stable and rapid development of highway construction projects. Contents are as follows:1. Analysis will be made on traffic flow detection of Kun-Chu highway. At first, it introduces the concept of traffic flow detection and survey methods.And then, it is the Kun-Chu highway that the survey of traffic flow detection will focus on, thus getting relevant statistic. Finally, findings will be made about the traffic flow detection of Kun-Chu highway.2. Deep research will be made on traffic volume of Kun-Chu highway. At first, it focuses the prediction method of Kun-Chu highway traffic volume on"four-stage method", which nails down the basic theory, content, and procedures; And then, this chapter will apply the "four-stage method" to analyze the relevant date of Kun-Chu highway to forecast the traffic volume of Kun-Chu highway. By doing this, it predicts the predictive figure of traffic volume at different section in the typical years.3. Analysis will be made on the capacity and service level. Firstly, this chapter will identify the calculation method of the basic section in Kun-Chu highway, clearing service level classification, proposing primary indexes on the evaluation of service level; And then, there will be an analysis of the capacity and service level of Kun-Chu highway based on the result of the predictive traffic volume of it, thus getting the service level grade on various section of Kun-Chu highway in the following typical years.This paper is a part of traffic science and technology projects in Yunnan Province, The Study of Post Evaluation and Index System on High-Grade Pavement in Yunnan.更多还原