退出成本、经济相互依赖与双边军事冲突

【作者】 吉菲菲；

【导师】 王帆；

【作者基本信息】 外交学院 ， 国际关系， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 近几十年的国际关系形势有两大特征:经贸合作关系的深化及发展与军事冲突的减少。那么,经贸合作的深化是否能带来军事冲突的减少呢?国际关系理论界对此问题一直争论不休。本文认为克里森兹的以门槛成本为核心概念的退出理论对该问题做了很好的回答。退出成本即退出国家间经济联系的机会成本,而门槛成本则为冲突双方所能承担经济损失的上限。克里森兹认为,当两国之间的退出成本小于门槛成本时,爆发军事战争的可能性较大;而当两国之间的退出成本大于门槛成本时,爆发军事战争的可能性较小。那么是否存在门槛成本这种经贸关系的极值呢?如果存在又是多少呢?本文以美国为考察对象,将美国历次战争前对目标国的退出成本进行计算、总结与整理,认为门槛成本确实存在,体现为太平洋战争爆发之前美国对日本经济的退出成本。本文通过分析太平洋战争前美日两国的经济相互依赖情况和走向战争的历史情况,验证了退出成本理论,并得出美国门槛成本的具体数值。本文不仅完善了退出理论,从而使之能更好地弥合“贸易和平论”的争议;而且本文提出的美国的门槛成本也对外交决策有较大的参考意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are mainly two features of international relations in recent decades: the reinforcement of economic cooperation and the decrease of military conflict. So, are there any correlations between these two features? The debate on this issue has last for hundreds of years and never come to a conclusion. This paper argues that the exit theory whose core concept is the threshold and exit cost given by Crescenzi can answer this question properly. The exit cost is the opportunity cost a country has to pay when it cut its economic relationship off with another country; while the threshold is the upper limit of economic loss born by a country in a bilateral conflict. Crescenzi assumes that a military war would be more likely to happen if the challenging country’s exit cost is lower than its threshold, and vice versa. Thus does there exist such a threshold? What on earth is this threshold if it practically exists? This paper holds the idea that the threshold practically exist, take the USA as an example, its threshold is the exit cost when America cut off its economic relationship with Japan before the Pacific War. This conclusion is drew by calculating, rearranging and summarizing America’s exit costs before every wars it undertook as a challenging country, and by analysis the case before the Pacific War that the USA and Japan were economically interdependent but ended with war. This paper has testified the exit theory and come up with an approximation of America’s threshold. Thus in this paper, exit theory will be improved, the debate on whether economic interdependence can promote peace will be better answered. Moreover, the approximation of America’s threshold derived by this paper has a significant meaning to our country’s diplomatic policies.更多还原