【作者】 侯绍洋；

【导师】 李贻学；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 地图制图学与地理信息工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 环境承载力决定着一个区域经济社会发展的速度和规模,以环境承载力引导社会、经济健康发展,是实现环境保护与社会、经济发展相协调的唯一途径。区域环境承载力的研究对象是区域社会经济-区域环境结构系统。它包括两个方面:一是区域环境系统的微观结构、特征和功能;一是区域社会经济活动的方向和规模。目前关于环境承载力评价的指标体系过于简单,很少有学者提出具体的筛选依据和指标体系框架,而且关于承载力的研究,多数局限于环境中的某一资源要素上。目前迫切需要从“社会-经济-环境”更宏观的系统层面上,探讨区域环境的承载力,实现“人与自然”协调发展。本文研究正是以实现可持续发展为主要目标,提出区域环境承载力的量化方法。本文以临清市为例,基于环境承载力和GIS相结合的研究方法,首先介绍了区域环境承载力研究的意义、研究进展和存在的问题,结合研究问题建立了基于环境承载力相对剩余思想的评价指标体系,并用区域环境承载力相对剩余率作为区域环境承载力研究的综合评价指标;然后将构建的单因素指标在GIS空间分析中分析。最后应用协调度分析临清市各乡镇自然环境、社会和经济的协调程度,并用聚类分析法将16个乡镇评价结果进行分类,提出各乡镇可持续发展指导意见。本文的研究成果包括以下四点:(1)基于环境承载力剩余思想,结合现今区域环境承载力指标选取存在的问题和选取原则,从自然环境和社会经济两方面选取评价指标11个,建立区域环境承载力评价指标体系。(2)应用GIS空间分析技术对评价指标进行属性和空间两方面分析,得到临清市各指标的环境承载力评价图和分级图,做进一步统计后得到各评价级别的面积及分布情况和原因。(3)将各分级图与原始乡镇图在ARC Toolbox叠置分析,得到各乡镇的环境承载力分级图,应用协调度分析各乡镇自然环境要素与社会经济要素的协调程度,发现魏湾镇和先锋街道良好协调,老赵庄镇和潘庄镇勉强协调,其他乡镇处于这两者之间;用聚类分析将16个乡镇大体分为三类,结合实际情况提出各乡镇经济发展和环境保护相协调的措施。(4)研究结果与现今的临清市各乡镇社会经济和环境状况基本相符,说明本文基于环境承载力相对剩余构建的指标体系科学合理,并建议评价指标应当结合实际情况和评价的目的灵活选择;环境承载力和GIS相结合的环境评价方法可行,这不仅深化了环境承载力理论用于环境评价的理论,也丰富了GIS的应用,为今后加入更科学准确的评价指标进行分析奠定了基础;但研究发现单因素评价指标的准确量化还需加强,还需要深化3S技术与环境承载力相结合的综合研究,最终达到科学的系统的基于GIS的环境承载力评价方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Environmental Carrying Capacity determines the speed and scale of regional economic and social development. Guiding the healthy development of society and economy with ECC is the only way to achieve the coordinated development between environmental protection and social and economic development. ECC studies the structure system of regional social and economic-regional environmental. It includes two aspects: One is the microscopic structure, features and functions of regional environmental systems; the other is the direction and magnitude of regional social and economic activities. At present, the evaluation index system on ECC was too simple, and the specific screening basis and index system were seldom proposed by scholars. Meanwhile, about the studies of capacity, many of that were confined to some one environmental resource element. Currently, it is urgently to discuss regional environmental Capacity on a broader level of "social-economic-environment" for realizing the coordinated growth of "Man and Nature". Therefore, this paper proposed a quantitative method of calculating regional ECC based on the realization of sustainable development as the main objectives.In this paper, taking Linqing county as a case, the method of the combination of GIS and ECC was used. First, the research significance, progress and problems of the regional environmental capacity were introduced; combined with the research questions, the evaluation index system based on ECC relative surplus was established. Second, using the GIS spatial analysis module analyzed the single factor indicators. Finally, the degree of coordination was used to describe the coordination level of natural environment, society and economy of Linqing county; and using the method of cluster analysis, the 16 townships were classified, and proposed some guidance on sustainable development.The results of this study included the following four points:(1) Combined with the current problems and the principle of indicators selection of regional ECC,11 indicators were selected from the natural environment and socio-economic aspects to establish evaluation index system of regional ECC.(2) GIS spatial analysis was used to analyze spatial data and attribute data of the indicators, and obtained evaluation map and classification map of each index, and got area, distribution and reasons of each class via further statistics. (3) The classification map and the original township map were overlaid to obtain ECC classification map of the towns. The degree of coordination was used to describe the coordination level of natural environment,society and economy of Linqing county. The results showed that Wei Wan and Pioneer streets were well coordinated, Zhao and Pan Town Town barely coordinated and other towns were between the two;16 towns were divided into three categories by cluster analysis and combined with the actual, measures of coordination development between the town’s economic and the environment protection were proposed.(4) The research result was consistent with conditions of socio-economy and environment of Linqing’s towns which illustrated the index system based on ECC relative surplus was scientific and reasonable; the combination method of ECC and GIS was feasible, which not only deepened the theory of ECC for environmental assessment, but also enriched the application of GIS and laid the foundation for the future analysis adding more scientific and accurate evaluation index; but the study found that the accuracy quantitative method of single factor evaluation index should be strengthened, and the comprehensive study of the combination of 3S technology and ECC should be deepened, and ultimately achieved a scientific methods of ECC based on GIS.更多还原