【作者】 袁猛；

【导师】 赵树宽；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 项目管理， 2010， 硕士

【副题名】以济宁市二环南路项目为例

【摘要】 BT即Build-Transfer(建设-转让),是近年来在我国基础设施和公用事业建设领域运用越来越广泛的项目融资模式。BT模式的广泛运用与实施,满足了工程建设领域投资主体多元化的要求,为企业的剩余资本和民间资本开辟了新的投资渠道,改变了过去在基础设施和公用事业项目建设由政府垄断经营的形势,很大程度上也弥补了政府建设资金的缺口,极大的推动了我国基础设施和公用事业的发展,为整个社会经济可持续发展提供了强有力的支撑。但是,BT模式在我国尚属新生事物,它在融资、建设、移交、回购等环节还处于实践探索的起步阶段,没有成熟的运作模式可资借鉴。另外,BT模式的工程项目,建设周期长、投资巨大、参与方多、组织关系复杂,项目在实施运作过程中的不确定因素很多,各种风险极易发生,因此,BT项目的风险管理就显得尤其重要。本文以工程项目风险管理理论为指导,通过理论和实证研究相结合的方法,以济宁市二环南路BT项目的运作实施为案例,针对该BT项目的实际工程条件和实施方式,首先通过核对表法和德尔菲法识别出项目的风险因素,建立项目风险评价指标体系,然后采用层次分析法计算各种风险因素的权重,得到按权重优先级排序的项目风险清单,并根据项目的合同条件和投资背景,借鉴道路工程风险评估模型对项目的整体风险进行定量评估,对项目面临的风险提出了风险应对的策略和措施。研究成果将为今后类似BT项目的风险管理工作提供借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, BT (Build-Transfer), as a project financing models, is more and more widely used in the construction of infrastructure and public utilities. The extensive application of BT, which meets the diversified demands of investors and opens new investment channels for the company’s surplus capital and private capital and changes construction of infrastructure and utility projects monopolized by the government situation in the past and makes up for gaps in government funds for construction in a large extent and promotes the development of infrastructure and public utilities in china and provides a strong support for the whole socio-economic sustainable development.However, BT is still new in China, it’s financing, construction, transfer, repurchase and so on are still in the initial stages of practice and exploration and are not a mature operating mode as reference. In addition, BT model project that has a long construction period and huge investments and participants and more complex organizational relationships brings easily many uncertain factors during project operations, Thus, BT project risk management bulks particularly important.The paper which bases on project risk management theory and uses of the method of the combination of theoretical and empirical and points at the project implementation for the practical engineering of the BT project conditions and the implementation of the approach, as the second ring road of Jining City a case, and identifies the risk factors by the method of check list and Delphi method and establishes the system of project risk evaluation index, and then calculates the weight of various risk factors by AHP and obtains the weight of priority list of project risks and bases the background of the contracts and investment and works on the project’s overall risk quantitative assessment of the risks for road and response strategies and measures for facing the project proposed risk. The research production provides risk management reference for the risk management for similar BT projects research in the future.更多还原