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矿业权收益途径评估方法中折现率确定的研究
【作者】 黄小杰；
【导师】 李英龙；
【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 硕士
【摘要】 矿业权评估是由专门的机构和人员根据评估的目的、评估对象的用途和实际情况选择适当方法,依据国家相关的法律、法规和有关技术经济资料,在确定的评估条件下,对某一时点上的矿业权价值进行的评估。目前国内矿业权评估中收益途径评估法主要采用折现现金流量法,而此方法与国外的评估方法相比,最大的分歧就是投资回报中是否包含在折现率中,也即存在重复分割超额利润的问题。文中通过投资倒算法计算,评估的结果显示将投资回报率计入折现率更科学,根据矿业市场及公司实际情况,确定投资报酬率更加合理。矿业本身是一个高风险行业,折现率是矿业权收益途径评估中的一个重要的参数。本文从矿业项目风险入手,通过分析矿业权评估以及资产评估中折现率的特点、方法,从而找到更合适的折现率方法来评估矿业权价值。累加法是国内矿业权评估选取折现率采用的主要方法,即：矿业项目风险报酬率在3%-5%范围内取值,无风险报酬率按照五年期银行存款利率,该取值带有很大的随意性。本文根据矿业权评估折现率的经济内涵,分析了矿业权评估折现率所面临风险的特殊性,通过分析比较矿业的风险特殊性,主张根据国内矿业市场股票价格、矿业公司资产收益率以及矿业公司投资收益率的数据,以及市场数据的变化调整风险报酬率的大小,建议采用风险调整折现率法来计算收益途径风险的大小,从而计算折现率的大小。同时指出,折现率的选取可以根据评估委托的目的选择适当的方法。本文以资本资产定价模型和风险调整折现率为对象,分析系统风险和非系统风险的条件下,根据受委托方评估的目的不同,从而采取不同的方法来计算收益途径的折现率。最后,通过矿业权评估案例来证明方法的合理、实用性。
【Abstract】 Assessment of mining rights is estimating the price of mine right on certain norm time according the purpose of the assessment, the use of the assessment objects and relevant state laws, regulations and relevant technical and economical information by the specialized agencies and personnel. Nowadays, mineral industry is mainly use discounted cash flow method, which is one of the methods of to assess the value of the enterprise in civil industries. This method is greatly difference is whether the investment return included in the discount rate, that is to say there is problem of re-dividing super-profits in civil assessment。This thesis is to demonstrate that it is more reasonable to put the return of investment rate into discount rate by investment fads which is manifested by the reality of mineral industry and enterprises.Mineral industry has high risk, and discount rate plays a key role in income assessment, it is an important parameter. This thesis is to demonstrate the proper method of discount rate in order to assess the value of mineral industry from the view of mineral projects risk, which mainly by analyzing the characteristics and methods of mineral properties and property assessment.Summation is the main method to calculate the discounted cash flow rate, that is to say the reward rate of mineral assessment is between 3%～5%, non-risk reward rate in accordance with the five-year bank deposit rate, whose rage is at will to some aspects. This thesis analyzes the specialty of the risk of mineral properties according to the economic denotation of the discount rate of mineral industry. And the purpose of analyzing this phenomenon is to calculate the rage of the reward rate of risk, and furthermore, it can also take the goal of assessment authorization into consideration in order to take the proper method, and the fixed price modal of capital assessment and discount rate of risk modulation also are the targets of this paper. We can take different ways to calculate the discount rate of income assessment according to the requirement of different clients under the risk and non-risk conditions. And finally to manifest the reasonability and practicality of the assessment, which usually use the different assessment cases in mineral industry.