【作者】 傅维先；

【导师】 阮连法；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 工程管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 运用现代项目风险管理理论,本文基于电网建设工程的生命周期,从多个角度对电网建设工程风险进行识别和评价,在此基础上研究电网建设工程项目风险控制的制度完善与对策措施。依据电网建设工程风险的理论研究,根据温州电力局风险管理的实际情况,研究和选择合适的调查评估方法；设计出基于生命周期较角度和管理角度的矩阵型风险要素调查表。由于在定量调查中,专家数量较小,考虑到专家专业范围和职业经验的不同,采用综合专家判断水平和专家工作资历的专家权重确定方法。同时专家的资历权重依据专家工作范围、工作年限以及项目数量来综合得到。运用风险评级打分对电网建设项目进行调查,识别和评估电网建设项目各管理阶段各种类风险要素。依据专家权重集结各风险要素的风险值,并进行适当分级。分别从项目生命周期和风险种类两个维度,对评价结果进行详细解析。分别从横向(风险种类)和纵向(生命周期阶段)进行风险值求和,从而较好的展示风险要素存在的重要阶段(变电土建工程施工、线路安装工程施工及工程征地及政策处理)和重要方面(成本费用、计划工期及技术标准)。在风险识别与评估的基础上,剖析现有项目风险控制存在的问题及原因。定量研究项目风险发生的可能性和风险的危害程度,对项目风险的来源结构进行剖析；通过筛选出26个建设项目风险重点管理文件,进行执行情况和存在问题的调查和分析；对进行项目风险管理制度现状进行分析。最后,运用现代项目风险管理的理论和方法,并借鉴项目标准化管理和项目业主制管理的思想,给出项目风险防范的系统对策,并基于电网建设项目的关键风险,给出电网建设项目风险控制的策略组合；基于电网项目的重要管理阶段,基于项目风险给出项目风险监控的核对表；提出完善电网建设项目风险管理的对策措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 By the modern theory of project risk management and based on the life cycle of power grid construction project, the risks of grid construction project are identified and evaluated from many perspectives in this work and approach to improve the risk control system are put forward.By way of the risk theory of the power grid construction project, appropriate investigations and assessment methods are chose according to the actual situation of the risk management of Wenzhou Electric Power, and risk factor matrix questionnaire is designed from the angles of the life cycle theory and the view of the risk management. In the quantitative investigation, due to the small number of experts and the different areas of expertise and professional experience, a comprehensive expert weight is determinate by integrating expert judgment levels and job qualifications of expert. And expert weight of job qualification is based on the working scope, working years of expert, and the quantity of project that expert has done.All kinds of risk factors in each management phase of power grid construction project are identified and assessed by rating score. According to the expert weight, each risk factor is valued and proper graded. From two dimensions from the project life cycle and the risk types respectively, a detailed analysis is presented. Respectively from the horizontal (type of risk) and vertical (life-cycle stage), the values of the sum of risk factors better show the important stages of risk (transforming civil engineering construction, line construction and installation project and policies to deal with land acquisition) and important aspects of risk(cost, program schedule and technical standard) of power grid construction.On the basis of risk identification and evaluation, moreover, risk control problems from the existing project and their reasons are discussed and analyzed. According to the quantitative research of the possibility of the risks and the harm degree of the project risks, source structure of the risk is analyzed. Through the selected 26 key risk management files of construction project, executing condition and existing problems are investigated and analyzed; and analysis on project risk management system is made.Finally, by the modern theory and method of project risk management, and by the standardized management and project management thought proprietorship, the systematic measures to prevent project risks are put forward. According to the key risks from power grid construction projects, the risk control strategies to the grid construction projects are designed. Based on the important stages of the grid construction project, project risk checklists of risk control are given and a complete set of risk management countermeasures are made.更多还原