【作者】 燕宏娟；

【导师】 李辉； 曹颖轶；

【作者基本信息】 西北民族大学 ， 中国少数民族经济， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以宁夏农村居民为研究对象,运用消费经济理论,结合可靠的实证方法,对宁夏农村居民消费结构的现状及发展趋势进行了较为全面的分析,以期获得有益的成果,为启动宁夏农村消费市场,改善农村居民消费结构提供理论依据。首先,界定了本文研究问题的相关概念和理论,为后面的研究奠定基础。其次,从消费结构变动以及消费结构的比较分析两方面分析了宁夏农村居民消费结构现状。再次,运用扩展线性支出系统模型和灰色预测方法对消费结构的特点和变化趋势进行实证分析。最后,在研究结论的基础上提出优化消费结构的对策建议。主要研究结论包括:随着收入的增加,消费结构升级加快,农村居民消费结构由温饱阶段进入小康阶段;食品消费结构趋于合理,稳定食品价格对增加居民消费具有积极的意义;居住支出偏高,而家庭耐用消费品消费不足,两者不协调,不利于农村居民综合生活水平的提高;交通、医疗是未来的消费热点,且消费需求受价格变动的影响较大;文教娱乐支出乏力,需引起重视;川、山区消费结构差异显著,目前两区在满足较低层次的吃穿住等消费支出方面具有相同的追加消费倾向,而在满足较高层的交通、文娱、杂项消费上川区明显高于山区,并且在食品质量、家庭设备用品拥有量上山区与川区也存在着显著差距,山区消费结构优化升级任重而道远。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper researches on rural residents of Ningxia province. Using theories of consumption and combining to reliable verifying methods, it studies the present situation and the developing trend of the rural resident’s consumption structure. From this study we hope get useful results so as to help us enlarge consumption market and improve consumption structure .The main contents are shown as follows: Firstly, makes a review on related theories and concepts on research question to lay a foundation for later studies. Secondly, analyses changes of rural residents’consumption structure and contrasts of the consumption structure. Thirdly, analyses consumption structure features and changes trend by ELES model and grey forecast model. Finally, poses a few proposals to optimize the consumption structure based on the conclusions of researches.The conclusions of the paper are shown as follows: At first, as increasing incomes in recent years, structure up grades speedily and the consumption structure of rural residents in Ningxia shift from adequate foods and clothes period to well-off phase. The food expenditure is rational, and food prices stabilization policy is beneficial to add other goods. The expenditure on house is a little too high.living expenses,the expenditure on household appliances is too low, it is disadvange to rural residents’s living standard. Transportation, medical care are consumption hot spots, but demand of them are sensitive to price changes. Education and entertainment services needs more attention ,because it is insufficient. Their exists significant gap between plain terrain and mountains in the consumption structure. At present, the two districts have the same additional consumption to meet the lower level of foods and clothes and residence , but in terms of high-level consumption, the plain terrain apparently higher than mountains. In additional ,mountains have significant gap in food quality and household equipment quantity with plain terrain, it shows that mountains consumption structure still needs to be regulated.更多还原