【作者】 齐莹；

【导师】 王莉萍；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 运筹学与控制论， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 本文结合1999-2009年共11年的海洋灾害公报,对近11年风暴潮致灾损失以及发生频率做了详细的介绍,实际数据显示,风暴潮灾害对海岸工程设施(如防波堤、护岸、塘坝)造成的损毁也是非常严重,严重威胁我国沿海人民群众的生命财产安全,迫切需要我们更加提高风暴潮灾害防御预测方面的准确度。因为波高和水位对海洋工程最为直观和重要,本文主要考虑极值波高与极值水位对海洋工程设计参数的影响,针对当前海洋工程设计标准多采用单因素方法进行风险预测分析,如：百年一遇波高,五十年一遇水位,而极值波高和极值水位往往是相伴同时产生的,尤其是在受风暴潮过程的影响下；同时传统的海洋资料风险分析方法需要人为选择分布曲线,这也给风险分析带来一定主观性的干扰。鉴于传统方法的主观性以及未考虑各海洋要素之间对海岸工程设施的联合作用,本文基于最大熵原则,建立了二维联合最大熵下的极值模型,并将新模型应用到极值波高极值水位联合设计参数的推算当中,结果表明新模型对海洋工程设计参数的推算具有很好的适应性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, through 1999-2009, all total 11 years ocean disaster bulletins, made a detailed description to the hazard losses and frequency about nearly 11 years storm surges. Through the real-measured data, the damage of ocean utility causing by storm surges is very serious, dire treating the lives and property of coastal people and making huge damage to seacoast utility, then, improving accuracy of storm surges disaster defense forecast is integrant.For wave height and water level are more intuitive and important to ocean utility, in this paper, considering the effect extreme wave height and extreme water level bring on ocean utility design parameters, recently, single factor analysis means are used continually in ocean utility designing criterion risk predictive analytics, such as: a-hundred-year return period wave height, fifty years return period water level, especially under the effect of storm surges, wave height and water level always arise at the same time; Mean while, traditional ocean data risk analysis methods need Artificial selection distribution curve, this brings some subjectivity obstruction to risk analysis.For traditional methods’subjectivity and don’t consider the combined action ocean essential factor bring to ocean utility, setting up two-dimensional joint entropy model by deriving extreme wave height and water level joint distribution function under the two-dimensional joint maximum entropy principle, and applying the new model in extreme wave height and extreme water level joint new model has the merit of Minimum Interference and considers the relevance of wave height and water level which traditional models doesn’t have, it is more adaptability in ocean utility designing parameter.更多还原