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基于模糊理论的尾矿坝安全现状综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation on Safety Situation of Tailing Dam Based on Mathematics

【作者】 王焯

【导师】 张开智;

【作者基本信息】 山东科技大学 , 安全技术及工程, 2010, 硕士

【摘要】 尾矿坝作为金属矿山和非金属矿山的特殊构筑物,是我国重大危险源的一种类型,尾矿库溃坝是矿山开采引发灾害的最主要形式的之一。中国有许多大中型尾矿库地理位置十分重要,其下游有密集的城镇居民、重要的厂矿或交通要道。尾矿坝建成运行后,可能会受到滑坡(岸坡坍塌)、洪水漫坝、渗流破坏等有害作用,还有可能受到大地震的破坏。在此过程中,筑坝材料逐渐老化,尾矿坝承受水压力、渗透压力等巨大荷载的能力不断降低。因而必须及时通过评价分析,准确掌握尾矿坝的性态变化规律,确定危及尾矿坝安全的主要问题并设法加以消除,以保证尾矿坝的安全运行。倘若这些尾矿坝的缺陷和隐患得不到及时诊断评价和整治处理,任其恶化下去,轻则影响尾矿坝设计功能的发挥,重则可能造成溃坝,殃及下游,给人民的生命财产、国民经济建设乃至生态环境和社会稳定带来极大的灾难。因此,对尾矿坝进行安全评价,掌握尾矿坝的主要缺陷和隐患及某些重大工程疑难技术问题,确定消缺除险的关键项目,将会取得显著的工程和社会效益。本文通过研究,首先初步分析影响尾矿坝运行期间安全稳定性的相关因素,建立尾矿坝安全评价指标体系,然后运用模糊综合评判与模糊模式识别理论相结合的评价方法,并建立切实可行的安全评价系统,具体对尾矿坝运行的实际情况进行安全性分析,最后得出尾矿坝当前的安全状态,进而提出改进措施。安全评价结果可有效地指导尾矿坝的现场加固等除险工作,为尾矿坝安全经济运行决策提供科学依据,进而保证尾矿坝安全、稳定地运行。

【Abstract】 Tailings dam, as a special structure of metal and non-metal mines, is one of major hazard installations of our country, in which tailings dam-break is one of the prominent forms to cause mining disasters. In China, many large and medium-sized tailings reservoirs are located in geographically key positions, with densely urban residents, important factories, mines or traffic arteries in their lower reaches. After the construction and operation, the tailing dams might be influenced by landslides (slope collapse), flood overtopping, seepage damage, etc., there may also be the damage from a heavy earthquake. In this process, with the dam material aging, the tailings dams’s ability of withstanding huge load such as water pressure and osmotic pressure is continuously reducing. Therefore, there is great necessity to evaluate and analyze in time, to accurately grasp the changing law of behaviors of tailings dams, and to determine the major issues threatening the safety of tailing dams and try to eliminate them, so as to ensure the safe operation of tailing dams. Provided that these faults and hidden defects are not timely evaluated and handled, but allowed to deteriorate, the influences will range from the design capabilities of tailings dams to the break of dams, which will affect the downstream and bring extraordinary disasters to people’s lives property, the national economy and social stability as well as the ecological environment. Therefore, it will get significant engineering and social benefits to make safety evaluation on tailing dams, to control the main faults, hidden defects and some major engineering difficult technical issues, and identify the key projects for eliminating defects and dangers.This paper, through studies, first runs a preliminary analysis on the relevant factors influencing the safety and stability of tailing dams, and establishes a safety evaluation index system of tailing dams; then make safety analysis on the actual situation of the operation of dams, through building a practical safety evaluation system and applying the method of combing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and fuzzy pattern recognition theory; and at last gets the current security status of tailing dams. Following that, improvement issues are put forward. Safety assessment results can effectively guide the danger elimination work such as dam-site reinforcement, etc. It will provide scientific basis for decision-making of safe and economic operation, thereby making sure that tailing dams operate in a safe and stable way.

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